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Ed Sheeran - “=“ first week sales predictions

Julian_
in UK Charts

“=“ sales prediction 156 members have voted

  1. 1. How many sales will ?=? do in its first week?

    • Fewer than 20,000
      4
    • 20,000-30,000
      0
    • 30,000-40,000
      0
    • 40,000-50,000
      1
    • 50,000-60,000
      0
    • 60,000-80,000
      3
    • 80,000-100,000
      2
    • 100,000-120,000
      6
    • 120,000-150,000
      18
    • 150,000-200,000
      18
    • 200,000-250,000
      19
    • 250,000-300,000
      23
    • 300,000-350,000
      18
    • 350,000-400,000
      13
    • 400,000-450,000
      1
    • 450,000-500,000
      4
    • 500,000-600,000
      3
    • 600,000-700,000
      0
    • 700,000-800,000
      0
    • 800,000-900,000
      0
    • 900,000-1,000,000
      1
    • More than 1,000,000
      6

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Glad I voted 120,000-150,000.

 

He's a huge flop :cheer:

 

Chromatica debuted with 50k?? What do we consider that?

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Probably close, it'll do 130-140k maybe if some sales are missing like the chart thread suggests.

It doesn't matter, it's pretty much the same, even if he debuts at 130-140k it'll be an 81-80% drop from Divide's opening week.

Chromatica debuted with 50k?? What do we consider that?

A success. Gaga isn't from the UK and didn't spend 15 weeks at #1 with her singles before her album came out like Ed's.

I'm thinking he may manage 200k given the missing HMV data for Friday. Fingers crossed he does.
  • Author
Well done those who said 120-150, though I wonder how many of you voted before the first Spotify data / Monday mids! :heehee:
Can I lower my bet to 115-125k? :kink:

 

Adelita being wrong again after changing from his original wrong prediction :cheeseblock:

Real sales - 80-100k

 

We got :

Real sales : near 114k

 

Edited by Last Dreamer

but everyone is saying the market has collapsed... but for week 1, this is not true, what is totally impossible is to sustain high (real) sales for long, but on week 1 many are doing better than ever thanks to the multi formatting

 

ie look at Lana she did 31K with NFR and then opened with 40K with Chemtrails

 

Yep, the Week 1 numbers can be pretty much anything. Not in a million years I thought Coldplay could open with 100k with THAT album after the previous fell way short, but they did.
= is still only the 4th album this year to pass even 40k in weekly pure sales (after Dave, Iron Maiden and Coldplay) - whereas at this point in 2017 at least 15 different albums had done so on their opening weeks alone.
but everyone is saying the market has collapsed... but for week 1, this is not true, what is totally impossible is to sustain high (real) sales for long, but on week 1 many are doing better than ever thanks to the multi formatting

 

ie look at Lana she did 31K with NFR and then opened with 40K with Chemtrails

 

I don't think we can compare the two quite so directly. Lana is not an act that's in the public's consciousness any longer, she gets her sales from the committed fans and those types of fans are pretty die hard and will buy physical copies (or multiple versions of) for week one. The market has definitely moved, yes there's still buyers and fans who want to own the product but for people like Ed, who gained huge sales by appealing so strongly to the casual music fans, the physical market isn't there any longer as they have all turned to streaming. Plus Lana's NFR was also released during the streaming era so it's quite a misleading comparison point when people are generally comparing sales of Ed's new one to sales of divide - which was most definitely released in a completely different landscape for the way music was consumed.

 

 

Ed has done perfectly fine and has done better than anyone else so far this year - but it probably is an underperformance when compared to the mammoth levels of success he's had so far in his career. What we don't know really at this point is how similar acts will perform, although we'll soon get a very quick comparison when we see what ABBA and Adele manage to achieve.

It is an underperformance but a much better album. There just arent enough hit singles on it compared to the commercial behemoth 'Divide'

 

I just can't see how they thought something like "Overpass Grafitti" would be a huge hit - it's a very decent track but not exactly an earworm. Ed of all people should have known this- or maybe he did and wasn't too bothered.

Edited by Smint

Amazed anyone thinks this performance is fine

It is not, its a gigantic underperformace

= is still only the 4th album this year to pass even 40k in weekly pure sales (after Dave, Iron Maiden and Coldplay) - whereas at this point in 2017 at least 15 different albums had done so on their opening weeks alone.

 

Indeed Jim but don’t let the facts get in the way of peoples opinions and narrative they want to push!

people are generally comparing sales of Ed's new one to sales of divide - which was most definitely released in a completely different landscape for the way music was consumed.

That is not true. Divide broke streaming records left, right & center the week it was released.

 

We are not talking about the huge collapse in his physical sales. His streaming has collapsed, too.

What were his streaming sales numbers compared to this one?

 

I’m not saying that his album hasn’t underperformed, just that it’s very difficult to compare the previous first weekly sales of divide with this when it sold so many physical copies

 

 

Also - I’m no fan of Ed, I just think it’s silly to call anything a flop when it’s just registered the highest sales week of the year so far.

  • Author

First week streaming sales:

Divide 79k

No 6 50k

Equals 25k

 

I feel like Divide was a bit of a one off so very little is ever going to compare favourably with that.

It is absolutely a considerable underperformance for Equals only to do half the streams of No 6 though.

I think the problem he’s had is that people love listening to the singles, particularly the 2 huge #1 hits (but streams for those don’t really count as they’re weighted down) but for whatever reason haven’t felt moved to listen to the rest in such large numbers.

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