Posted January 23, 20232 yr Oscar noms are tomorrow!!! What are your predictions?! (Will post mine a lot later tonight!)
January 23, 20232 yr Author As I said I’ll post proper predictions later but I am hoping the utterly random Andrea Riseborough grassroots campaign ends up with her getting the nomination 😂
January 23, 20232 yr Assume The Banshees of Inisherin will replicate it's nomination count for other awards
January 23, 20232 yr This is Variety's prediction for Best Picture and I'm inclined to agree, it looks like a likely (if a bit dull, but it's the Oscars, what's new) list: Top Gun: Maverick The Fabelmans The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All at Once Tár Elvis All Quiet on the Western Front Triangle of Sadness Women Talking The Whale Everything, Everywhere... is obvs my hope to win, honestly the fact it's even getting talked about in the same breath as this when it's such a wacky film, is really an acheivement for genre, independent and genuinely original cinema at the Oscars which is great to see. I am hoping RRR or Glass Onion could get a few nominations and hopefully Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio will sweep Animated film at least, the former in particular felt like a real breakthrough for Bollywood of recent years.
January 24, 20232 yr Author MY PREDICTIONS: (all Alts are listed in my predicted order of likelihood) Best Picture 01. Everything Everywhere All At Once 02. The Banshees of Inisherin 03. Top Gun: Maverick 04. The Fabelmans 05. TÁR 06. Elvis 07. Avatar: The Way of Water 08. The Whale 09. Babylon 10. Aftersun Alts: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, All Quiet on the Western Front, RRR, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story, Women Talking A really interesting category this year!! Normally we have like eight slots locked at this point, but quite frankly only the top six is locked this year. I think Avatar 2 is too big to miss & The Whale is surging at the right time. 9th and 10th are total crapshoots but I feel Babylon is gonna pull a Nightmare Alley and Aftersun will be that indie hit sneaking in. Feels weird not predicting one of the three foreign language contenders here, one of those probably sneaks in. Best Director 01. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once 02. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans 03. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick 04. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun 05. Todd Field, TÁR Alts: McDonagh (Banshees of Inisherin), Rajmouli (RRR), Cameron (Avatar 2), Luhrmann (Elvis), Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King), Chazelle (Babylon), Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) Director is such an interesting category nowadays! Only feel confident in The Daniels (Spielberg as well but the BAFTA longlist miss is concerning). Can literally see any one of my alts making this line-up! Best Actor 01. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin 02. Brendan Fraser, The Whale 03. Austin Butler, Elvis 04. Bill Nighy, Living 05. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans Alt: Mescal (Aftersun), Pope (The Inspection), Cruise (Top Gun 2), Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front) Top 3 locked and Nighy should happen. 5th spot is utterly mad this year, could be many many people and could be an utterly crazy nom here?! I have a gut feeling about LaBelle though. Mescal is def close, especially as I'm predicting an Aftersun overperformance still despite the disappointing BAFTA showing. Can Hanks pop up here out of nowhere with a late breaking box office hit? Best Actress 01. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once 02. Cate Blanchett, TÁR 03. Danielle Deadwyler, Till 04. Margot Robbie, Babylon 05. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie Alts: Williams (The Fabelmans), De Armas (Blonde), Davis (The Woman King) Lol my fave category and I'm going messy with my predictions. Top 2 are locked. I feel confident in Deadwyler too (I will be heartbroken if she misses). I think Babylon over performs and Robbie still makes it (also just me being stubborn & refusing to stop predicting her because I was so certain this was her Oscar winning role :cry:). And I cannot in my heart not predict Riseborough after the crazy last week and a bit!!! All the random A-list endorsements on twitter!! The Frances Fisher led grassroots campaign! Winslet calling it the best female performance of all time!!! Would be one of the most out of nowhere & craziest noms ever but my gosh I hope it happens now!! Williams I think might category split (I feel she still gets in somewhere but I don't know who to kick out, I have her 6th in both rn!). De Armas def has the passion to make it but I refuse to acknowledge that horror getting a single Oscar nom. Davis has all the precursors but screams Oscar snub, this is the biggest test of whether she's hit name-checking mode yet! Best Supporting Actor 01. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once 02. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin 03. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin 04. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans 05. Brad Pitt, Babylon alts: Henry (Causeway), Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Rylance (Bones & All), Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Hanks (Elvis), Teller (Top Gun 2), Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front) Top 3 locked & feel good about Dano. 5th spot I have no idea so I've played it safe and stuck with Pitt. Think we might be getting a nod as random as Simmons for Being the Ricardos last year here. (Henry to plz make it as a passion nom or Teller to appear out of nowhere!!). I feel like Redmayne is nowhere near making it despite hitting every precursor somehow Best Supporting Actress 01. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin 02. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once 03. Hong Chau, The Whale 04. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 05. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once Alts: Williams (The Fabelmans), De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Hoss (TÁR), Buckley (Women Talking), Monae (Glass Onion), Mulligan (She Said), Lou Wood (Living), Smart (Babylon) From what went from being one of the craziest categories a month ago to feeling like my most secure prediction?! Condon is in, Hsu has the passion + film, Chau has the late breaking film + role, Bassett has the precursor wins (though I'm not sold despite this, I think the Marvel tag could lead to a shock snub) and Curtis has the overdue narrative + film. Only other realistic contenders here I think are Williams ending up in supporting or De Leon as a passion nom (and maaaaybe Hoss for the same reason as De Leon). Best Original Screenplay 01. The Banshees of Inisherin 02. Everything Everywhere All at Once 03. TÁR 04. Aftersun 05. The Fabelmans Alts: Triangle of Sadness, Elvis, Decision to Leave Six-horse race here, going with Triangle underperforming and getting snubbed (though I feel TOS might overperform so easily and make my predictions a mess) Best Adapted Screenplay 01. The Whale 02. Living 03. Top Gun: Maverick 04. Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio 05. All Quiet on the Western Front Alts: Women Talking, White Noise, Glass Onion, She Said, Bones & All What a MESSY category. The Whale is literally the only one I feel confident in!! About a month ago Women Talking & Glass Onion were the frontrunners and I'm predicting shock snubs for both. The former seems passionless and the BAFTA snub finally gave me the push to remove it from my predictions, and the latter feels like the kind of thing they might not go for. Can once again see any of my alts in over literally any of my predictions lol --- Best Animated Feature 01. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio 02. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 03. Turning Red 04. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On 05. Wendell & Wild Alts: My Father's Dragon, The Bad Guys, The Sea Beast, Inu-Oh, Minions 2 Top 3 are in. Marcel screams the shock snub as the Academy don't like live-action bits but idek what to replace it with this year. W&W also feels passionless but so do the alternates Best Foreign Language Film 01. All Quiet on the Western Front 02. Argentina, 1985 03. Close 04. EO 05. The Quiet Girl Alts: Decision to Leave, Holy Spider, Bardo, Saint Omer, Return to Seoul, Joyland As usual there will be random nods and shock snubs here. Predicting Decision to Leave as the shock snub. Best Documentary Feature 01. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 02. All That Breathes 03. Descendant 04. Fire of Love 05. The Territory Alts: Moonage Daydream, Navalny, The Janes, Retrograde, A House Made of Splinters --- Best Original Score 01. Babylon 02. The Fabelmans 03. Women Talking 04. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio 05. The Banshees of Inisherin Alts: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nope, Avatar: The Way of Water Women Talking avoids 'this had Oscar buzz' with a nom here. Best Original Song 01. Ciao Papa, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio 02. Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick 03. Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 04. Carolina, Where the Crawdads Sing 05. Naatu Naatu, RRR Alt: Applause (Tell It Like a Woman), Dust & Ash (The Voice of Dust & Ash), This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stand Up (Till), New Body Rhumba (White Noise) Going with the globes five feels risky but screw it. ROOTING for Taylor so badly here, this is def her best shot yet! RRR is either winning or getting snubbed, lowkey leaning towards the latter. It feels stupid to not predict both of Diane Warren or music branch president J. Ralph, let alone either one. They'll both probs kick out the good songs knowing our luck. Best Film Editing 01. Top Gun: Maverick 02. Everything Everywhere All at Once 03. Elvis 04. Avatar: The Way of Water 05. All Quiet on the Western Front Alts: The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Babylon, Aftersun, TÁR Best Cinematography 01. Top Gun: Maverick 02. All Quiet on the Western Front 03. Avatar: The Way of Water 04. Empire of Light 05. Elvis Alt: The Fabelmans, Babylon, Bardo, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Decision to Leave, The Batman, Nope, Aftersun Lol I can see many many films popping up here. Top Gun 2 feels locked, AQOTWF should be in unless it really is just a random BAFTA film this year & Elvis feels like the shit this branch will go for. Predicting The Batman to be snubbed all round which is definitely a risky prediction. Also Empire of Light avoids major 'this had Oscar buzz' status here Best Production Design 01. Babylon 02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 03. Elvis 04. The Fabelmans 05. Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio Alts: Avatar 2, Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion, Bardo, The Woman King, White Noise Best Costume Design 01. Elvis 02. Babylon 03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 04. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris 05. Everything Everywhere All at Once Alts: The Woman King, Living, The Fabelmans, Corsage Best Makeup 01. Elvis 02. The Whale 03. All Quiet on the Western Front 04. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 05. Babylon Alts: The Batman, Blonde, Amsterdam Best Sound 01. Top Gun: Maverick 02. Avatar: The Way of Water 03. All Quiet on the Western Front 04. Elvis 05. Babylon Alts: Mooange Daydream, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, The Batman, Black Panther 2 Best Visual Effects 01. Avatar: The Way of Water 02. Top Gun: Maverick 03. All Quiet on the Western Front 04. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 05. Thirteen Lives Alts: The Batman, Jurassic World 3, Doctor Strange 2, Nope, Fantastic Beasts 3 --- Best Documentary Short Subject 01. The Flagmakers 02. The Elephant Whisperers 03. How Do You Measure a Year? 04. The Martha Mitchell Effect 05. Shut Up and Paint Best Animated Short Film 01. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse 02. Save Ralph 03. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It 04. Sierra 05. New Moon Best Live Action Short Film 01. Le Pupille 02. An Irish Goodbye 03. The Treatment 04. The Red Suitcase 05. The Lone Wolf Absolute crapshoots in the shorts category as usual. Come thru the boy, t he mole, the fox and the horse in animated!! I am also rooting for An Ostrich... and My Year of Dicks to be nominated in the shorts too!! Predicted nom count: Everything Everywhere All at Once – 9 Babylon – 8 Elvis - 8 Top Gun: Maverick – 8 All Quiet on the Western Front – 7 The Banshees of Inisherin – 7 The Fabelmans – 7 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 6 Avatar: The Way of Water – 5 Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio – 5 The Whale - 5 TÁR - 4 Aftersun – 3 Living - 2 All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – 1 All That Breathes - 1 Argentina, 1985 – 1 Close – 1 Descendant – 1 Empire of Light - 1 EO – 1 Fire of Love - 1 Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – 1 Mrs. Harris Goest to Parris – 1 Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – 1 RRR - 1 The Quiet Girl – 1 The Territory – 1 Thirteen Lives - 1 Till – 1 To Leslie – 1 Turning Red – 1 Wendell & Wild – 1 Where the Crawdads Sing - 1 Women Talking – 1 All the Shorts - 1 Pretty happy with this on the whole. Though Babylon feels too high, Banshees feels too low, three films with 5+ noms missing best picture, and completely snubbing Triangle of Sadness (I didn't realise I did this until now!! I do not feel good about that I def think it shows up somewhere) and The Woman King are the ones I feel least confident on. (Also think TÁR can overperform and end up with 6/7) <3
January 24, 20232 yr Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the way with 11 nominations :wub: I'm so pleased that it's being recognised to this extent, what a triumph.
January 24, 20232 yr Author As I said I’ll post proper predictions later but I am hoping the utterly random Andrea Riseborough grassroots campaign ends up with her getting the nomination 😂 It happened!!!!!! 😭😭😭😭😭 :cheeseblock: Also omg at the Henry nom happening in supporting I’m so glad!!!! Deadwyler tho 😭😭
January 24, 20232 yr Excellent news re: Everything, Everywhere... *.* This winning Best Picture would rival Parasite as my favourite one of these ever, but I can't believe it yet x Great to see Glass Onion just about grab a nod in Adapted Screenplay too. Wow at Viola Davis' snub in Actress :o Thought that was a certainty. Decision to Leave feels like a bit of an omission from International as well.
January 24, 20232 yr Best Picture: - All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - Elvis - Everything Everywhere All At Once - Tár - The Banshees of Inisherin - The Fabelmans - Top Gun: Maverick - Triangle of Sadness - Women Talking Directing: - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert [Everything Everywhere All At Once] - Martin McDonagh [The Banshees of Inisherin] - Steven Spielberg [The Fabelmans] - Todd Field [Tár] - Ruben Östlund [Triangle of Sadness] Actress in a Leading Role: - Ana de Armas [blonde] - Andrea Riseborough [To Leslie] - Cate Blanchett [Tár] - Michelle Williams [The Fabelmans] - Michelle Yeoh [Everything Everywhere All At Once] Actor in a Leading Role: - Austin Butler [Elvis] - Bill Nighy [Living] - Brendan Fraser [The Whale] - Colin Farrell [The Banshees of Inisherin] - Paul Mescal [Aftersun] Actress in a Supporting Role: - Angela Bassett [black Panther: Wakanda Forever] - Hong Chau [The Whale] - Jamie Lee Curtis [Everything Everywhere All At Once] - Kerry Condon [The Banshees of Inisherin] - Stephanie Hsu [Everything Everywhere All At Once] Actor in a Supporting Role: - Barry Keoghan [The Banshees of Inisherin] - Brendan Gleeson [The Banshees of Inisherin] - Brian Tyree Henry [Causeway] - Judd Hirsch [The Fabelmans] - Ke Huy Quan [Everything Everywhere All At Once] Animated Feature Film: - Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - Marcel the Shell With Shoes On - Puss In Boots: The Last Wish - The Sea Beast - Turning Red Writing (Original Screenplay): - Everything Everywhere All At Once - Tár - The Banshees of Inisherin - The Fabelmans - Triangle of Sadness Writing (Adapted Screenplay): - All Quiet on the Western Front - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Living - Top Gun: Maverick - Women Talking Music (Original Song): - Applause [Tell It Like A Woman] - Hold My Hand [Top Gun: Maverick] - Lift Me Up [black Panther: Wakanda Forever] - Naatu Naatu [RRR] - This Is A Life [Everything Everywhere All At Once] Music (Original Score): - Carter Burwell [The Banshees of Inisherin] - John Williams [The Fabelmans] - Justin Hurwitz [babylon] - Son Lux [Everything Everywhere All At Once] - Volker Bertelman [All Quiet on the Western Front] International Feature Film: - All Quiet on the Western Front - Argentina, 1985 - Close - EO - The Quiet Girl Short Film (Live Action): - An Irish Goodbye - Ivalu - Le Pupille - Night Ride - The Red Suitcase Short Film (Animated): - An Ostrich Told Me the World Was Fake and I Think I Believe It - Ice Merchants - My Year of Dicks - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse - The Flying Sailor Documentary Feature Film: - A House Made of Splinters - All That Breathes - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - Fire Of Love - Navalny Documentary Short Film: - Haulout - How Do You Measure A Year? - The Elephant Whisperers - The Martha Mitchell Effect - Stranger At the Gate Film Editing: - Eddie Hamilton [Top Gun: Maverick] - Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond [Elvis] - Mikkel E.G. Nielsen [The Banshees of Inisherin] - Monika Willi [Tár] - Paul Rogers [Everything Everywhere All At Once] Cinematography: - All Quiet on the Western Front - Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths - Elvis - Empire of Light - Tár Sound: - All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - Elvis - The Batman - Top Gun: Maverick Visual Effects: - All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - The Batman - Top Gun: Maverick Production Design: - All Quiet on the Western Front - Avatar: The Way of Water - Babylon - Elvis - The Fabelmans Make-Up & Hair-Styling: - All Quiet on the Western Front - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Elvis - The Batman - The Whale Costume Design: - Babylon - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Elvis - Everything Everywhere All At Once - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
January 24, 20232 yr I'm really sad that they snubbed both 'Till' AND 'The Woman King'... COMPLETELY!?
January 24, 20232 yr Was hoping Eddie Redmayne could sneak another nomination! Hoping for an Angela Bassett win if only for the times she should have won before.
January 24, 20232 yr Really sad to see they have completely disregarded "Till" and "The Woman King" .... I don't know if they're doing it to get people talking because they're predominately black casted films but seems like a very odd omission imo.
January 25, 20232 yr Watch Avatar win most of these while being a solid 2.5/10 predictable overrated style over substance utter f***ing waste of time and money b-movie. Everything everywhere all at once must win and I will perceive all other opinions as clinical insanity.
January 29, 20232 yr I hope Elvis or The Fabelmans win best film but most likely that overrated 'Everything everywhere all at once' willl win.
January 29, 20232 yr I saw The Fabelmans yesterday and did think it was great (also Michelle Williams really shone as an actress) but still team Everything Everywhere All At Once!
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