Do you have a sales prediction for Stick Seasom? I’ve been wondering if it’s early silver certification and current success may give it a late shot at the list

Do you have a sales prediction for Stick Seasom? I’ve been wondering if it’s early silver certification and current success may give it a late shot at the list

Good shout. It’s done 176k since it went silver so will gold this week and could finish the year around 500k total. The bar for #100 should be around 405k. I just don’t know how many of its sales were in 2022 but presumably not all that many if it didn’t chart. So yes think it will appear.

Considering it didn’t chart until this year, I doubt it would’ve cleared 100k before 2023 as a July 2022. Who knows though; could be a wildcard. Either way it’s doing so well that it will definitely make next years list.

Considering it didn’t chart until this year, I doubt it would’ve cleared 100k before 2023 as a July 2022. Who knows though; could be a wildcard. Either way it’s doing so well that it will definitely make next years list.

 

I think it has a good chance to be in 2024's year-end top 10.

Last Christmas already in the Top 100 so likely to finish Top 30. Greedy has also entered as expected, and Trustfall and If We Ever Broke Up are out.

 

The danger zone now looks like this:

96 I’ll Be Waiting

97 Style

98 Whistle

99 Late Night Talking

100 Sex On Fire

 

I think Sex On Fire is actually the most likely to hold. I’m expecting AIWFCIY, FONY, probably RATCT (though the Spotify glitch may have cost it some early sales) and also Stick Season to enter.

 

I think we could be heading for Stephen Sanchez #41 and Peggy Gou #42 unfortunately!

Edited December 20, 20231 yr by Jingle Jules

Aw poor P!nk 😢

 

Can't say any of those in danger list will be a loss necessarily though. Some I like but are old songs.

 

Also don't love to see Peggy and Stephen not be top 40 either -_-

Had to look up who sang 'I'll Be Waiting' - Cian Ducrot completely forgettable so no big loss. 'Whistle' very meh too!

As expected we’ve lost Whistle and Late Night Talking. Stick Season is here and will finish around #61. All I Want For Christmas Is You has entered and will still make the Top 40, but it’s really a long way behind Wham! this year. The latter could even end up in the Top 20 with a strong week this week. :o

How do you rate Brenda, the Pogues and Bublé’s chances of making it?

I think Pogues and Brenda should make it but not Bublé.

 

By the way Stephen Sanchez has overtaken LF System so should be safe for Top 40 now - will be between LFS and Vance for the last Top 40 spot.

As expected we’ve lost Whistle and Late Night Talking. Stick Season is here and will finish around #61. All I Want For Christmas Is You has entered and will still make the Top 40, but it’s really a long way behind Wham! this year. The latter could even end up in the Top 20 with a strong week this week. :o

 

Yes - agreed re ‘Last Christmas’. I haven’t paid huge attention to its figures this year so far, but it will end up on a minimum of 650k - probably more like 680k.

 

Looking through the information in this thread, I feel that is likely to put it at number 20. Therefore pulling further ahead of Lewis/Killers in the year end all time list (they will of course overtake it during the year). Does anyone have a good current estimate for Band Aid?

 

Oh good to see Stephen will likely hold top 40 after all ^_^

My estimates for the year end Top 100 Singles - some of the totals are rough and ready. :)

 

1 1,650,000 Miley Cyrus - Flowers

2 1,218,000 Dave & Central Cee - Sprinter

3 1,152,000 RAYE & 070 Shake - Escapism. (1.38m)

4 1,120,000 Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero (1.60m)

5 1,115,000 Calvin Harris & Ellie Goulding - Miracle

6 1,107,000 Rema - Calm Down (1.47m)

7 1,071,000 SZA - Kill Bill (1.15m)

8 964,000 PinkPantheress - Boy's a liar

9 953,000 Harry Styles - As It Was (2.53m)

10 912,000 Libianca - People

 

11 852,000 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer (1.19m)

12 803,000 Miguel - Sure Thing (1.28m)

13 785,000 David Guetta & Bebe Rexha - I'm Good (Blue) (1.45m)

14 780,000 Olivia Rodrigo - vampire

15 768,000 venbee & goddard. - messy in heaven (1.10m)

16 755,000 David Kushner - Daylight

17 752,000 The Weeknd - Die for You (1.29m)

18 706,000 Wham! - Last Christmas (5.53m)

19 704,000 Dua Lipa - Dance the Night

20 700,000 Switch Disco & Ella Henderson - REACT

 

21 674,000 Tom Odell - Another Love (2.85m)

22 658,000 The Killers - Mr. Brightside (5.29m)

23 657,000 Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin' (740k)

24 649,000 OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried (1.37m)

25 644,000 Lewis Capaldi - Forget Me (1.19m)

26 643,000 Doja Cat - Paint the Town Red

27 641,000 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved (5.27m)

28 627,000 Jazzy - Giving Me

29 626,000 Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You (4.97m)

30 617,000 Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits (3.52m)

 

31 616,000 Ed Sheeran - Eyes Closed

32 615,000 George Ezra - Green Green Grass (1.39m)

33 604,000 cassö, RAYE & D-Block Europe - Prada

34 602,000 Sam Smith & Kim Petras - Unholy

35 590,000 Lizzy McAlpine - ceilings (620k)

36 580,000 Meghan Trainor - Made You Look (850k)

37 560,000 Tiësto & Tate McRae - 10:35 (630k)

38 559,000 Ed Sheeran - Shivers (2.51m)

39 553,000 Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You (730k)

40 552,000 Vance Joy - Riptide (3.60m)

 

41 551,000 LF SYSTEM - Afraid to Feel (1.53m)

42 544,000 Peggy Gou - (It Goes Like) Nanana

43 540,000 Beyoncé - CUFF IT (940k)

44 539,000 Fleetwood Mac - Everywhere (3.00m)

45 538,000 Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For?

46 535,000 Coldplay - Viva La Vida

47 534,000 Lewis Capaldi - Pointless (600k)

48 534,000 Eliza Rose & Interplanetary Criminal - B.O.T.A. (Baddest of Them All) (1.22m)

49 531,000 Lewis Capaldi - Wish You the Best

50 527,000 Glass Animals - Heat Waves (2.68m)

 

51 525,000 Rudimental, Charlotte Plank & Vibe Chemistry - Dancing is Healing

52 519,000 Kenya Grace - Strangers

53 513,000 Tears for Fears - Everybody Wants to Rule the World (2.43m)

54 506,000 Coi Leray - Players

55 506,000 The Weeknd - Save Your Tears (2.33m)

56 505,000 Hannah Laing & RoRo - Good Love

57 504,000 Fleetwood Mac - Dreams (2.63m)

58 495,000 Strandz - Us Against the World

59 488,000 Central Cee - LET GO (550k)

60 487,000 Noah Kahan - Stick Season (530k)

 

61 487,000 Oliver Tree & Robin Schulz - Miss You (820k)

62 478,000 J Hus feat. Drake - Who Told You

63 476,000 Sam Fender - Seventeen Going Under (1.76m)

64 475,000 The Goo Goo Dolls - Iris (3.18m)

65 473,000 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights (4.26m)

66 472,000 Becky Hill & Chase & Status - Disconnect

67 470,000 Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (2.50m)

68 468,000 Hozier - Take Me to Church (3.80m)

69 467,000 Chris Brown - Under the Influence (1.06m)

70 465,000 Florence + the Machine - Dog Days Are Over (2.46m)

 

71 463,000 JVKE - golden hour (570k)

72 462,000 Arctic Monkeys - Do I Wanna Know? (3.14m)

73 460,000 The Pogues feat. Kirsty MacColl - Fairytale of New York (4.04m)

74 458,000 McRae - greedy

75 453,000 Elton John & Dua Lipa - Cold Heart (2.12m)

76 451,000 FIFTY FIFTY - Cupid

77 450,000 Ed Sheeran - Perfect (5.22m)

78 449,000 Oasis - Wonderwall (4.33m)

79 443,000 Gunna - fukumean

80 442,000 Chase & Status & Bou feat. IRah, Flowdan, Trigga & Takura - Baddadan

 

81 433,000 Coldplay - Yellow (2.69m)

82 431,000 Arctic Monkeys - 505 (1.49m)

83 429,000 Cat Burns - go (1.56m)

84 428,000 Loreen - Tattoo

85 428,000 The Neighbourhood - Sweater Weather (1.77m)

86 427,0000 Arctic Monkeys - I Wanna Be Yours (1.12m)

87 426,000 Adele - Someone Like You (3.98m)

88 426,000 Mimi Webb - Red Flags

89 425,000 Jorja Smith - Little Things

90 422,000 Post Malone - Chemical

 

91 421,000 Fleetwood Mac - Go Your Own Way (2.46m)

92 421,000 SZA - Snooze

93 420,000 David Guetta, Anne-Marie & Coi Leray - Baby Don't Hurt Me

94 416,000 Burna Boy - Last Last (1.08m)

95 414,000 The Weeknd feat. Daft Punk - Starboy (2.77m)

96 413,000 Lana Del Rey - Summertime Sadness (2.36m)

97 413,000 Elton John - I'm Still Standing (2.00m)

98 412,000 Bryan Adams - Summer of '69 (2.63m)

99 411,000 Taylor Swift - Karma (550k)

100 407,000 Kings of Leon - Sex on Fire (3.44m)

Edited December 30, 20231 yr by Jingle Jules

Do you have any estimates for the positions just outside the top 100?

Thanks for compiling this as usual, always an interesting read as a (mostly) lurker on here! My only comment:

 

95 414,000 The Weeknd feat. Daft Punk - Starboy (1.43m)

 

I believe Starboy was certified 4x platinum in February so its total should probably be something like 2.8m now?

Thanks for compiling this as usual, always an interesting read as a (mostly) lurker on here! My only comment:

I believe Starboy was certified 4x platinum in February so its total should probably be something like 2.8m now?

Thanks for spotting - yes I’d got the album and single certifications confused oops! Amended.

Amazing work Jules! Loving what you do.

 

This just makes me think of the all-time chart. Do you have estimates for:

 

Shape Of You

Do They Know It’s Christmas?

Candle In The Wind ‘97

Bohemian Rhapsody

Thinking Out Loud?

 

I guess these are the five remaining songs in the all-time top 10.

Amazing work Jules! Loving what you do.

 

This just makes me think of the all-time chart. Do you have estimates for:

 

Shape Of You

Do They Know It’s Christmas?

Candle In The Wind ‘97

Bohemian Rhapsody

Thinking Out Loud?

 

I guess these are the five remaining songs in the all-time top 10.

The only thing I have that you won’t have unless you subscribe to ChartPlus is the year to date Top 100 updated every week. None of the above have been in the 2023 year end Top 100 at any point. So it’s only guesswork that anyone can do.

 

Shape Of You went 10 x platinum 21 weeks ago I believe. Since then Perfect has averaged about 8k per week and SOY always runs a notch lower; maybe at 7k per week. So I’d guess 6.15m.

 

Do They Know It’s Christmas had 5.63m a year ago and I’d guess maybe 320k this year taking it to 5.95m.

 

I’m assuming hardly anyone streams Candle In The Wind ‘97? So it will be dropping out of the Top 10 pretty soon.

 

Bo Rhap had 4.67m a year ago. It came close to the year end chart last year but I don’t think it did so well this year. I’d still expect it to have done 350k plus so maybe 5.03m?

 

Thinking Out Loud probably runs at 6k per week or so - I’d guess maybe 350k since it went 7 x platinum in November 2022, so 4.55m?

I’m assuming hardly anyone streams Candle In The Wind ‘97? So it will be dropping out of the Top 10 pretty soon.

Does anyone have a "final" figure for Candle In The Wind '97? From somewhere, I have the figure of 4,864,611?

 

Does anyone have a "final" figure for Candle In The Wind '97? From somewhere, I have the figure of 4,864,611?

This thread is great: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=258660

 

OCC figure of 4.951 million in September 2017 apparently. So I guess it is creeping up slowly but much much slower than all the other huge “sellers”.