Comparing Kylie with Peggy Gou and Hannah Laing, whose songs actually have managed #7 peaks so far. These are their weeks spent in the Top 20:

 

30/06 - #10: 22,814 | Kylie - Padam Padam

07/07 - #12: 21,976 | Kylie - Padam Padam

 

Wait! Jay - do we know how many of those were sales, and how many streams? If the 838 drop is accounted for by a decrease in sales, then Kylie had an increase in streams last week, and isn’t on her first week of decline yet!

 

Here is my modelling for the final 8-14 section of the chart this week

 

8 21,230 D Block Europe

9 20,220 Nathan Dawe

10 19,700 Kylie Minogue

11 19,660 Weeknd

12 19,280 Gunna

13 19,100 Harry Styles

14 18,900 Jorja Smith

 

As you can see, it is incredibly tight immediately behind Kylie as I said earlier in the week that it would be! My estimate says that Weeknd will be just 40 sales behind Kylie - and even Jorja just 800 sales behind! This is very close.

 

These estimates include practically everything apart from one day of YouTube data and one day of Apple data.

 

The only song that will benefit greatly from the missing YouTube data is D-Block Europe: so, hopefully the songs immediately behind Kylie won’t benefit: I believe she was ahead of them last week.

 

Gunna and Weeknd are just behind Kylie on Apple - so if she stays ahead of them, she should just keep the number 10 position by the end of the week. But it is far too close for comfort!!

 

I wouldn’t mind Kylie ending up at #11 if it meant Madonna got another top 10 - sorry sorry sorry! Can’t believe Madonna blocking Kylie from the top 10 (and vice versa) is even a prospect in 2023 lol

Wait! Jay - do we know how many of those were sales, and how many streams? If the 838 drop is accounted for by a decrease in sales, then Kylie had an increase in streams last week, and isn’t on her first week of decline yet!

Unfortunately we didn’t see the 30th June sales split, but I did an estimate for it!

 

30th June: Estimate 20,130 streaming out of 22,814

7th July: 19,618 streaming out of 21,966

Unfortunately we didn’t see the 30th June sales split, but I did an estimate for it!

 

30th June: Estimate 20,130 streaming out of 22,814

7th July: 19,618 streaming out of 21,966

 

Hmmm. The information that I’ve seen suggests that Kylie hasn’t had her first week of decline yet. Last week should have been her first week of decline. That seems to be at 2.5% decline. However, if the market declined by more, then she might not be on her first week of decline yet.

Hmmm. The information that I’ve seen suggests that Kylie hasn’t had her first week of decline yet. Last week should have been her first week of decline. That seems to be at 2.5% decline. However, if the market declined by more, then she might not be on her first week of decline yet.

This is definitely the case! :dance: I hadn't realised that's what had happened. That's really great that Padam Padam has, at the very least, extended its run at the top end of the chart by 1 week. Very nice that it's not going to immediately surrender to ACR.

 

In that case we'll have week 8 (14th July), 9 (21st July) and 10 (28th July) on SCR, guaranteed, and week 11 is the earliest it's currently due to go to ACR, so that would be Friday 4th August's chart.

 

Let's hope that it can dodge it again though!

But I thought the market had declined by less?

 

Overall singles sales are down 2.43% week-on-week to 26,590,593 units – an 11-week low but 13.09% above same week 2022 consumption of 23,513,238 units. Paid-for sales are down 7.46% week-on-week at 305,099 – 8.44% below same week 2022 sales of 333,215.

 

This makes streaming sales of this week of 26,285,494 units, and the previous week the streaming was 26,923,413. That makes a 2.37% decline. And Kylie had an estimated 2.54% decline. She avoided ACR, if the streamed for the previous week were less then 20,092 units, which is possible, but not certain.

 

Happy to be proved wrong though!

Edited July 13, 20231 yr by perrobueno

But I thought the market had declined by less?

 

Overall singles sales are down 2.43% week-on-week to 26,590,593 units – an 11-week low but 13.09% above same week 2022 consumption of 23,513,238 units. Paid-for sales are down 7.46% week-on-week at 305,099 – 8.44% below same week 2022 sales of 333,215.

 

This makes streaming sales of this week of 26,285,494 units, and the previous week the streaming was 26,923,413. That makes a 2.37% decline. And Kylie had an estimated 2.54% decline. She avoided ACR, if the streamed for the previous week were less then 20,092 units, which is possible, but not certain.

 

Happy to be proved wrong though!

 

That makes it so close. Around 50 sales difference. I don’t know where the information I got initially came from (I assume OCC) but it puts Kylie on SCR along with Cruel Summer and Jorja Smith, with Harry Styles (correctly) on DCL-2. Therefore I’m going to assume this is correct!

 

That’s great :D thank you guys for the info. Going to ACR after just 9 weeks would have been unfortunate.

This is definitely the case! :dance: I hadn't realised that's what had happened. That's really great that Padam Padam has, at the very least, extended its run at the top end of the chart by 1 week. Very nice that it's not going to immediately surrender to ACR.

 

In that case we'll have week 8 (14th July), 9 (21st July) and 10 (28th July) on SCR, guaranteed, and week 11 is the earliest it's currently due to go to ACR, so that would be Friday 4th August's chart.

 

Let's hope that it can dodge it again though!

 

The ACR thing confuses me a bit - so if a single is on 2 weeks of decline for example and then increases streams above the market does it get reset to 0 weeks of decline?

Edited July 13, 20231 yr by ___∆___

The ACR thing confuses me a bit - so if a single is on 2 weeks of decline for example and then increases streams above the market does it get reset to 0 weeks of decline?

Same as you it confuses me too but I think what you said is right about it going back to 0 if the increase occurs on the 3rd week.

From my understanding that is the case, indeed!

If Kylie returns to the top 10 I think it's the first time a kylie single will have climbed back into the top 10 after leaving it.

If Kylie returns to the top 10 I think it's the first time a kylie single will have climbed back into the top 10 after leaving it.

 

Yep! Which is why I'm really wanting her to get it tomorrow.

It would be great if it does although it's as stressful as the week I wanted her to go top 10.

Woohoo returns to the top 10.