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Padam Padam Week 9 Predictions 21 members have voted

  1. 1. How Will Things go on week 9?

    • It Will Climb
      1
    • It Will Drop
      19
    • Non Mover
      0
  2. 2. Do you think it will still be iTunes Top 10 next Friday 21st

    • Yes it will stay Top 10
      9
    • No it will drop out
      11
  3. 3. Do you think it can increase its streaming

    • Do you think Padam Padam can increase its streaming this week.
      9
    • No it will decrease
      11
  4. 4. Will we get a new remix this week

    • Yes im certain a new remix will get released
      10
    • No i dont think we will
      8
    • Im not sure
      2
  5. 5. Will a Padam Padam Vinyl get a a release at some point

    • Yes
      15
    • No
      5

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Posted
So weeks number 9 opens for padam padam and the poll is slightly different this week to try and keep it a little bit interesting.
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Fall to #14

 

That sounds about right. Top 18 at least (I said 17 elsewhere).

 

BUT I’m going to be optimistic for once, and say 11.

 

My prediction is it will climb above D Block Europe and the new Taylor track. Weeknd, Gunna and 1 new entry from J Hus will be above it.

 

With a bit of good luck, and additional download sales from a new remix, it could be a non-mover at 10.

Billie Eilish might debut top-10?

Also we have a J-Hus bomb, but I don’t see it troubling the official top-10. Will debut high, but will tumble down through the week.

But I think Jorja Smith will also overtake. So PP should be above above I Can See You and maybe Pakistan, and beyond Little Things, Popular, Fukumean and maybe Billie and J-Hus. That makes it around 11-14 with steady streaming (maybe -1-2% again) and sales falling. Hopefully another 20k+ week!

It'll drop, but not as much as we think. I reckon #13

 

Streaming again could decrease but again not by much.

 

Yes a remix is coming and yes I do believe a 7" is coming.

 

 

Not going to see as many Downloads, unless it gets close to a chart position and fans start buying.

 

Also if the HAAi Club Mix is realeased exclusively to Kylie.com on Weds then that could collect quite a few downloads.

  • Author

I do think it will drop this week but hoping it can stay top 15, and likewise i hope it can stay top 10 or at worst for most of the week on itunes, for 9 weeks in and selling 1800 is impressive in the current actual sales market.

While i would love its streams to increase its likely it wont, as for a remix it would make more sense to release it the week after next to avoid it going on dcl so im hoping they release a remix or 2 that week to help it get an increase, as for the vinyl i really hope its planned but im not sure as part of me thinks they will be thinking fans have the cd.

I voted for:

 

It will drop (I think it will stay Top 15 - I'll predict #13, helped along if the remix download is released to her store within this tracking week)

No it will drop out (of the Top 10)

No it will decrease (in streams)

Yes im certain a new remix will get released

Yes (to a vinyl - well, I'm not confident about it tbh... but I really really want a Padam Padam vinyl, so I'll say yes to try and manifest it!)

PADAM PADAM

 

WEEK 8:

 

Friday 14th July - final official chart position

#10

Overall Sales: 20,912

Download Sales: 1,804

Physical & Streaming Sales, combined: 19,108

^ Physicals vs Streaming split is unknown.

Physicals had sold 13 copies as of the Wednesday midweeks... it seems unlikely that many more physical sales would have been added. If we just assume it was 13 physical sales for the whole week, it would leave 19,095 sales from streaming.

 

Thursday 13th July - midweek

No update.

 

Wednesday 12th July - midweek

#9 (-1)

Overall Sales: 13,289 (+2,666)

Download Sales: 1,447 (+156)

Streaming Sales: 11,829 (+2,509)

CD Sales: 1

Cassette Sales: 12 (±0)

^ How random that it sold 1 CD at this stage, when it's no longer available to buy. Maybe a copy was lying around the BMG offices and they decided to scan it? Lol~

 

Tuesday 11th July - midweek

#8 (+1)

Overall Sales: 10,623 (+2,544)

Download Sales: 1,291

Streaming Sales: 9,320

Cassette Sales: 12

 

Monday 10th July - midweek

#9 (=)

Overall Sales: 8,079

 

Sunday 9th July - first look

#9

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 7:

 

Friday 7th July - final official chart position

#12 (=)

Overall Sales: 21,976 (+5,161)

Download Sales: 2,338 (+250)

Streaming Sales: 19,618 (+4,910)

Cassette Sales: 20 (+1)

 

Thursday 6th July - midweek

#12 (-1)

Overall Sales: 16,815 (+2,848)

Download Sales: 2,088 (+215)

Streaming Sales: 14,708 (+2,633)

"Unaccounted for" Sales: 19 (±0) [Cassettes?]

 

Wednesday 5th July - midweek

#11

Overall Sales: 13,967 (+2,750)

Download Sales: 1,873

Streaming Sales: 12,075

"Unaccounted for" Sales: 19 [Cassettes?]

 

Tuesday 4th July - midweek

(Position unknown)

Overall Sales: 10,947 (+1,928)

 

Monday 3rd July - midweek

#8 (-1)

Overall Sales: 9,019 (+3,953)

Download Sales: 1,414

Streaming Sales: 7,599

"Unaccounted for" Sales: 6 [Cassettes? / Note: CD Single no longer available, therefore has sold 0 copies]

 

Sunday 2nd July - first look

#7

Overall Sales: 5,066

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 6:

 

Friday 30th June - final official chart position

#10 (-1)

Overall Sales: 22,814 (+5,685)

^ Sales split unknown.

My estimates: 20,130 streaming, 2,630 downloads, ~50 physicals (impossible to know how many physical sales might have been added).

 

Thursday 29th June - midweek

#9 (=)

Overall Sales: 17,129 (+3,279)

Physical Sales: 47 (±0) [CDs: 32 / Cassettes: 15]

Download Sales: 2,255 (+664)

Streaming Sales: 14,827 (+2,615)

 

Wednesday 28th June - midweek

#9

Overall Sales: 13,850

Physical Sales: 47

Download Sales: 1,591

Streaming Sales: 12,212

 

Tuesday 27th June - midweek

No update.

 

Monday 26th June - midweek

#9 (+1)

Overall Sales: 8,149

CD Sales: 27

Download Sales: 1,067

Streaming Sales: 6,985

"Unaccounted for" Sales: 70 [Note: I'm assuming cassettes and download "bundle" sales.]

 

Sunday 25th June - first look

#10

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 5:

 

Friday 23rd June - final official chart position

#8 (-1)

Overall Sales: 25,549 (+6,009)

Physical Sales: 304 (+31) [CDs: 115 / Cassettes: 189]

Download & Streaming Sales, combined: 25,245 (+5,978)

^ Download vs Streaming split is unknown.

My estimates: 22,025 streaming and 3,220 downloads.

 

Thursday 22nd June - midweek

#7 (=)

Overall Sales: 19,540 (+3,274)

Physical Sales: 273 (+11)

Download Sales: 2,868 (+319)

Streaming Sales: 16,399 (+2,944)

 

Wednesday 21st June - midweek

#7 (+1)

Overall Sales: 16,266 (+3,509)

Physical Sales: 262 (+38)

Download Sales: 2,549 (+353)

Streaming Sales: 13,455 (+3,118)

 

Tuesday 20th June - midweek

#8 (=)

Overall Sales: 12,757 (+2,365)

Physical Sales: 224 (+118) [CDs: 93 / Cassettes: 131]

Download Sales: 2,196 (+376)

Streaming Sales: 10,337 (+1,871)

 

Monday 19th June - midweek

#8 (-1)

Overall Sales: 10,392

Physical Sales: 106

Download Sales: 1,820

Streaming Sales: 8,466

 

Sunday 18th June - first look

#7

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 4:

 

Friday 16th June - final official chart position

#9 (+4)

Overall Sales: 25,867 (+7,959)

Physical Sales: 2,137 (+1,778) [CDs: 633 (+274) / Cassettes: 1,504]

Download & Streaming Sales, combined: 23,730 (+6,181)

^ Download vs Streaming split is unknown.

My estimates: 20,100 streaming and 3,600 downloads.

 

Thursday 15th June - midweek

#13 (+1)

Overall Sales: 17,908 (+4,184)

CD Sales: 359 (+113)

Download Sales: 3,112 (+466)

Streaming Sales: 14,437 (+3,605)

 

Wednesday 14th June - midweek

#14 (-1)

Overall Sales: 13,724 (+2,444)

CD Sales: 246 (+62)

Download Sales: 2,646 (+387)

Streaming Sales: 10,832 (+1,995)

 

Tuesday 13th June - midweek

#13 (-1)

Overall Sales: 11,280 (+3,314)

CD Sales: 184 (+86)

Download Sales: 2,259 (+369)

Streaming Sales: 8,837 (+2,859)

 

Monday 12th June - midweek (Missing Data: Apple Music, YouTube)

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 7,966 (+3,131)

CD Sales: 98 (±0)

Download Sales: 1,890 (+394)

Streaming Sales: 5,978 (+2,737)

 

Sunday 11th June - first look

#10 (-7)

Overall Sales: 4,835 (+3,702)

CD Sales: 98

Download Sales: 1,496

Pure Sales: 1,594 (+461 // CD+Download Sales, combined)

Streaming Sales: 3,241

 

Saturday 10th June (#1: Sex Pistols / #2: BTS)

#3

Overall Sales: 1,133

Pure Sales: 1,133 (CD+Download Sales, combined)

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 3:

 

Friday 9th June - final official chart position

#12 (=)

Overall Sales: 20,837 (+4,955)

CD Sales: 2,598 (+241)

Download Sales: 2,567 (+450)

Streaming Sales: 15,672 (+4,264)

 

Thursday 8th June - midweek

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 15,882 (+1,974)

CD Sales: 2,357 (+64)

Download Sales: 2,117 (+386)

Streaming Sales: 11,408 (+1,524)

 

Wednesday 7th June - midweek

#10 (=)

Overall Sales: 13,908 (+3,026)

CD Sales: 2,293 (+16)

Download Sales: 1,731 (+380)

Streaming Sales: 9,884 (+2,630)

 

Tuesday 6th June - midweek

#10 (+1)

Overall Sales: 10,882 (+2,058)

CD Sales: 2,277 (+325)

Download Sales: 1,351

Streaming Sales: 7,254

 

Monday 5th June - midweek

#11 (-5)

Overall Sales: 8,824

CD Sales: 1,952 (22.12%)

Download Sales: Not revealed (12%)

Streaming Sales: Not revealed (66% = 65% Audio Streaming + 1% Video Streaming)

 

Sunday 4th June - first look

#6

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 2:

 

Friday 2nd June - final official chart position

#23 (+1)

Overall Sales: 15,788 (+4,108)

Download Sales: 2,811 (+358)

Streaming Sales: 12,977 (+3,750)

 

Thursday 1st June - midweek

#24 (=)

Overall Sales: 11,680 (+2,122)

Download Sales: 2,453 (+323)

Streaming Sales: 9,227 (+1,799)

 

Wednesday 31st May - midweek

#24 (=)

Overall Sales: 9,558 (+1,525)

Download Sales: 2,130 (+329)

Streaming Sales: 7,428 (+1,196)

 

Tuesday 30th May - midweek

#24

Overall Sales: 8,033

Download Sales: 1,801

Streaming Sales: 6,232

 

Monday 29th May - midweek

No update due to bank holiday

 

Sunday 28th May - first look

#18

 

---------------------

 

WEEK 1:

 

Friday 26th May - final official chart position

#26 (+2)

Overall Sales: 14,649 (+4,568)

Download Sales: 4,601 (+2,029)

Streaming Sales: 10,048 (+2,561)

 

Thursday 25th May - midweek

#28 (-1)

Overall Sales: 10,081 (+1,873)

Download Sales: 2,572 (+380)

Streaming Sales: 7,487 (+1,486)

 

Wednesday 24th May - midweek

#27 (=)

Overall Sales: 8,208 (+1,903)

Download Sales: 2,192 (+562)

Streaming Sales: 6,001 (+1,334)

 

Tuesday 23rd May - midweek

#27 (-1)

Overall Sales: 6,305 (+1,408)

Download Sales: 1,630 (+265)

Streaming Sales: 4,667 (+1,135)

 

Monday 22nd May - midweek

#26 (-5)

Overall Sales: 4,897 (+2,054)

Download Sales: 1,365

Streaming Sales: 3,532

 

Sunday 21st May - first look

#21

Overall Sales: 2,843

 

------------------------------------------

 

Friday - final official chart positions - comparisons

 

14th July - Week 8

#10 (+2)

Overall Sales: 20,912 (-1,064)

Download Sales: 1,804 (-534)

Physical & Streaming Sales, combined: 19,108 (-530)

Estimates: 13 physicals, 19,095 streaming. That would be -7 physicals, and roughly 520 less streaming.

 

7th July - Week 7

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 21,976 (-838)

Download Sales: 2,338 (About 300 less than previous week)

Streaming Sales: 19,618 (About 500 less than previous week)

Cassette Sales: 20 (About 30 less than previous week's physical total)

 

30th June - Week 6

#10 (-2)

Overall Sales: 22,814 (-2,735)

^ Estimates: 20,130 streaming, 2,630 downloads & ~50 physicals. Roughly -1,900(ish) streaming, -600(ish) downloads & -250(ish) physicals.

 

23rd June - Week 5

#8 (+1)

Overall Sales: 25,549 (-318)

Physical Sales: 304 (-1,833) [CDs: 115 (-518) / Cassettes: 189 (-1,315)]

Download & Streaming Sales, combined: 25,245 (+1,515)

^ Estimates: 22,025 streaming & 3,220 downloads. Roughly +1,900(ish) streaming & -400(ish) downloads.

 

16th June - Week 4

#9 (+3)

Overall Sales: 25,867 (+5,030)

Physical Sales: 2,137 (-461) [CDs: 633 (-1,965) / Cassettes: 1,504]

Download & Streaming Sales, combined: 23,730 (+5,491)

^ Estimates: 20,100 streaming & 3,600 downloads.

 

9th June - Week 3

#12 (+11)

Overall Sales: 20,837 (+5,049)

CD Sales: 2,598

Download Sales: 2,567 (-244)

Streaming Sales: 15,672 (+2,695)

 

2nd June - Week 2

#23 (+3)

Overall Sales: 15,788 (+1,139)

Download Sales: 2,811 (-1,790)

Streaming Sales: 12,977 (+2,929)

 

26th May - Week 1

#26

Overall Sales: 14,649

Download Sales: 4,601

Streaming Sales: 10,048

 

------------------------------------------

 

Totals

 

(The following data doesn't include sales achieved on Thursday 18th May) -

 

8 weeks overall total: 168,392

 

It's becomingly increasingly more difficult to make approximate guesses between the different sales - CD, Cassette, Download, Streaming. We've had a few weeks of not having accurate totals for these. :(

 

CD & Cassette combined have sold 5,119 at the very least (3,379 CDs / 1,740 cassettes, a mix of Friday chart sales, but also some are just figures from the midweeks). A handful of sales are likely missing, because we don't know the accurate physical sales from "30th June - week 6" or "14th June - week 7". It's probably not too many missing sales.

 

Download sales - unfortunately we didn't get to know the download sales for "16th June - week 4", "23rd June - week 5" or "30th June - week 6". My estimate is approaching 23,600.

 

Streaming sales - likewise we don't know the figures from the same dates that we didn't get any sales figures for downloads, as well as "14th July - week 8". My estimate is over 139,600.

 

Including an estimate of the Thursday 18th May sales (900 sales?), Padam Padam's overall total could now be approaching 169,300!

 

I think Padam Padam must be very nearly at the point of selling 30,000 pure copies (i.e. downloads, CD and cassettes, combined) which seems pretty remarkable! Could it be within the Top 10 best *selling* singles of the year so far?

I think Padam Padam must be very nearly at the point of selling 30,000 pure copies (i.e. downloads, CD and cassettes, combined) which seems pretty remarkable! Could it be within the Top 10 best *selling* singles of the year so far?

I would guess so! 'Flowers' by Miley Cyrus is the best selling with 80,000 downloads, presumably 'Pointless' by Lewis Capaldi second given it sold nearly 40k pure sales just on the week it was #1 alone ('Wish You the Best' also sold 20.5k pure sales in the week it was #1). Looking at the download chart, it looks like 'Miracle' by Calvin/Ellie could have racked up a lot of downloads (top 10 for 18 weeks) as well as a decent amount of physical sales. I can't think of anything else that could be ahead of Kylie.

Fabulous! :cheeseblock: I wish OCC was a bit more generous and would occasionally share some YTD charts that focus on pure sales combined, or even separate ones for downloads alone and physicals alone. It would be interesting!
Fabulous! :cheeseblock: I wish OCC was a bit more generous and would occasionally share some YTD charts that focus on pure sales combined, or even separate ones for downloads alone and physicals alone. It would be interesting!

Agreed, they one seem to do that for the actual year end chart, even though they give updates for vinyl and even cassettes throughout the year! :drama:

  • Author
I think she has a great chance of top 10 in the end of the year chart plus I think there is potentially close to another 10k pure sales that will come between now and when it falls off the radar.
I think top 10 end of year might be a bit ambitious, but I'm thinking it has every chance of making an appearance in the top 100 somewhere.

Yeah I definitely think it’ll make year end Top 100, it’s taken less than 400k the past couple of years and it’s only a couple of weeks away from 200k now.

  • Author
My post about top 10 end of the year was I'm relation to purr sales such as cds and downloads not an overall top 10 of the year.
It only climbed this week due to other songs being on ACR but its actual sales are dropping so it will certainly fall out of the T10 this week.

I’m going to stick my neck out and predict 9 in the First Look Chart!

 

Top 8: Dave/Central Cee, Olivia Rodrigo, J Hus, Taylor - Cruel Summer, Hannah Laing, Nathan Dawe etc, Peggy Gou, Jung Kook will be above her.

 

But because of the balance between Amazon and Spotify, she will start with a lead over Gunna, Weeknd, Jorja Smith, D Block Europe, Taylor - I Can See You - and new songs by J Hus and Billie Eilish won’t ignite sufficiently to overtake her.

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