Stargazing will manage it too

 

Do we have 4 or 5 weeks left , 4 weeks it be close

5 weeks left.

 

I think I Love You, I'm Sorry and Somedays won't have quite enough to enter next week so I suspect no new entries.

 

KEHLANI probably can't re-enter either as I suspect Brown Eyed Girl is doing enough to hold it off.

I'd assume 360 has missed its chance to enter now so I think there's only Somedays, I Love You I'm Sorry, and the 3 big Christmas ones that are 100% nailed on entries

I have 360 on 390k and I think it will end up at 430k by the end of the year, which I imagine will be about 10k short with the cut off being 440k-ish

That’s So True is already below 50k a week, so I’m pretty sure it won’t make it now.

360 actually went gold this week and has had a boost on Apple (and presumably Spotify too) from the tour so still has an outside chance imo.

No new or re-entries this week but there must be a queue of gold certified 2024 songs just outside the Top 100. I reckon it looks something like this:

 

101 Kehlani 406k

102 Somedays 403k

103 360 401k

104 I Love You, I’m Sorry 400k

Week 48:

 

1 1 1,907,000 Noah Kahan - Stick Season (2.44m)

2 2 1,692,000 Benson Boone - Beautiful Things

3 3 1,654,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso

4 4 1,638,000 Teddy Swims - Lose Control (1.75m)

5 5 1,386,000 Hozier - Too Sweet

6 6 1,257,000 Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)

7 7 1,116,000 Billie Eilish - Birds Of A Feather

8 8 1,102,000 Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe

9 9 1,086,000 Dasha - Austin

10 10 1,071,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please

 

11 11 998,000 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer (2.18m)

12 13 942,000 Myles Smith - Stargazing

13 12 941,000 Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em

14 14 927,000 Cassö with Raye & D Block Europe - Prada (1.53m)

15 15 853,000 Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help

16 16 827,000 Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder On The Dancefloor (1.83m)

17 17 810,000 Artemas - I Like The Way You Kiss Me

18 18 782,000 Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - Fortnight

19 19 776,000 Tate McRae - Greedy (1.23m)

20 20 769,000 Michael Marcagi - Scared To Start

 

21 21 733,000 Djo - End Of Beginning

22 22 727,000 The Killers - Mr Brightside (6.02m)

23 23 716,000 Ariana Grande - We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)

24 24 709,000 Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten (1.89m)

25 25 702,000 Eminem - Houdini

26 26 700,000 Mark Ambor - Belong Together

27 27 690,000 Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me (1.02m)

28 28 687,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Taste

29 29 651,000 Tommy Richman - Million Dollar Baby

30 31 637,000 Benson Boone - Slow It Down

 

31 30 633,000 Ella Henderson featuring Rudimental - Alibi

32 33 601,000 Vance Joy - Riptide (4.19m)

33 32 599,000 Dua Lipa - Houdini (760k)

34 34 598,000 Taylor Swift - I Can Do It With A Broken Heart

35 35 597,000 Zach Bryan featuring Kacy Musgraves - I Remember Everything (790k)

36 37 594,000 Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire (1.37m)

37 40 591,000 Bl3ss & CamrinWatsin featuring Bbyclose - Kisses

38 38 590,000 Fleetwood Mac - Everywhere (3.54m)

39 36 590,000 Ariana Grande - Yes, And?

40 43 589,000 Teddy Swims - The Door

 

56 503,000 Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile

67 470,000 Chase & Status and Stormzy - Backbone

71 461,000 Gigi Perez - Sailor Song

75 449,000 Billie Eilish - Wildflower

96 415,000 Adam Porte and Stryv featuring Malachiii - Move

What’s Wham on so far? Anyone have a rough estimate?

What’s Wham on so far? Anyone have a rough estimate?

I find it really hard to estimate January to October sales for the Christmas songs. There was a week in October when Alan Johes confirmed Wham! had done 4k that week, but I assume it’s much less over the spring and summer.

Based on the weeks its charted/sales have been given by Music Week its done at least 128k. Assuming its done 1k every week between week 2 and 43 its on 170k. Total guess.

 

Where is Wonderwall btw? Its the only song on the list I've had to completely guess :D

Awwww a little bit gutted we're going to lose Ariana's Yes, and?

Will Angel of my Dreams manage a Brit nomination? How many of these are british songs from 2024?

Based on the weeks its charted/sales have been given by Music Week its done at least 128k. Assuming its done 1k every week between week 2 and 43 its on 170k. Total guess.

 

Where is Wonderwall btw? Its the only song on the list I've had to completely guess :D

That 1k per week might be a bit low so it could well be closer to 200k.

 

“Wonderwall” is a non mover at #73 with an estimated 456k.

That 1k per week might be a bit low so it could well be closer to 200k.

 

“Wonderwall” is a non mover at #73 with an estimated 456k.

 

Oh I wasn't far off at all with Wonderwall then, had it at 76 on 449k very proud of myself :D

Scary that some people stream Wham and Mariah's Christmas songs every day over the summer....

Think it's fairly obvious at this point that the Pogues are not going to make it and tbh I'm not entirely convinced about Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree either at this point.

 

360 had a bit of a boost on Apple last week due to the tour and has re-entered on Spotify today so if it can hold that momentum for the rest of the year, it could just sneak in.

KEHLANI has also suddenly had a big boost on Spotify the last couple of days and is up around 40% compared to last week which also gives it a strong chance.

 

Around 440 for the cutoff this year are we thinking? Brenda will surely manage that at least

Around 440 for the cutoff this year are we thinking? Brenda will surely manage that at least

 

I agree that she probably will, but its been a pretty slow start for Christmas songs in general, her sales so far have been kinda between her 2022 sales (419k total) and 2023 (470k total), difficult to say how that trend will continue in December, but she's down a lot on Spotify so far.

 

The massively higher cut off this year is what has me sceptical - if we were expecting a similar cut off to previous years, it would make it easily.

Honestly didn't realise just how much the Christmas songs were down this year. Wonder if the final day of counted streams being on the 25th will be able to offset the lower performance

I could see Brenda doing >150k in the final week to get close to her 2023 numbers.

 

“Iris” has been quietly establishing itself as a Top 40 contender by doing 14k per week for a while. It’s now on course to finish on 630k.