June 17, 20241 yr I think a hung parliament will depend on reform. If they somehow end up doing 25-30% then we would likely see a hung parliament - probably a coaltition between Labour & Lib dems. But I doubt they will cross the 20% threshold let alone 25-30%. I'm thinking Reform will end up doing ~10-15%, Conservatives 15-20% with Labour on 40-45%. That will give labour 400+ seats quite easily.
June 17, 20241 yr Postage votes are coming through now. The election won't change much from the point on.
June 17, 20241 yr Does anyone think a hung Parliament could actually happen? Less than 1% chance IMO. The polling error required for the election to end in any situation other than a Labour majority would have to be historic and while the vote certainly is soft and is likely to evaporate if Labour screw up in govt, at the moment there's not much pushing the average voter away from Labour and won't be until polling day. Reform are also reaching a ceiling. They may end up with a few seats but their vote at least this go doesn't seem like it'll outstrip 2015's UKIP by much.
June 17, 20241 yr Less than 1% chance IMO. The polling error required for the election to end in any situation other than a Labour majority would have to be historic and while the vote certainly is soft and is likely to evaporate if Labour screw up in govt, at the moment there's not much pushing the average voter away from Labour and won't be until polling day. Reform are also reaching a ceiling. They may end up with a few seats but their vote at least this go doesn't seem like it'll outstrip 2015's UKIP by much. Ok that’s reassuring!
June 17, 20241 yr As things currently stand, I can't see a Hung Parliament. The Tories, Reform and Lid Dems are all polling in either the mid to late teens. But I guess will give each party very different amount of seats. The swing needed in 2 weeks would need to be huge. I can potentially see the Tories doing slightly better than anticipated, but not enough to overturn a Labour victory.
June 17, 20241 yr I think a hung parliament will depend on reform. If they somehow end up doing 25-30% then we would likely see a hung parliament - probably a coaltition between Labour & Lib dems. But I doubt they will cross the 20% threshold let alone 25-30%. I'm thinking Reform will end up doing ~10-15%, Conservatives 15-20% with Labour on 40-45%. That will give labour 400+ seats quite easily. Yeh reform won’t get anything higher than 17/18% (which would be a huge success for them) but will mean plenty of third places and maybe 1 seat max!
June 17, 20241 yr Yeh reform won’t get anything higher than 17/18% (which would be a huge success for them) but will mean plenty of third places and maybe 1 seat max! And if that happens, a great reason why Labour may not want to push for PR voting and keep FPTP. I can't see Reform getting any more than 2 MPs at a stretch.
June 17, 20241 yr There are just over 24 hours left to register to vote if anyone has not yet done so! https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote Make sure you are registered - if you are you might know by having already received a poll card or you voted in a recent election at the same address. If you haven't, get it done, it takes 5 minutes.
June 17, 20241 yr There are places that bet on everything its pretty much 50/50 between who gets a higher vote share conservatives or reform. I reckon there are a lot of people maybe 15% of current Tory votes who will view the two as interchangeable so if reform begin to seem a better bet then maybe they can break 20% but either way a Labour majority of 200+ is all but guaranteed
June 17, 20241 yr And if that happens, a great reason why Labour may not want to push for PR voting and keep FPTP. I can't see Reform getting any more than 2 MPs at a stretch. One of them being Kermit, I'm assuming? :(
June 18, 20241 yr I can only see Farage winning a seat to be honest unless Anderson’s seat is really Brexity (which I assume it is if he got in under the tories in 2019. But still Labour will likely take that back as the right wing northerners are taken in by Starmers Islington patriotism!
June 18, 20241 yr Crazy policy https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1802835187148972270?s=46 “ Keir Starmer has just said on LBC that Labour will NOT consider a 10% levy on football transfers: “Let me just kill it dead, we’re not looking at that”” Ok nvm thanks for that guardian Edited June 18, 20241 yr by Liam sota
June 18, 20241 yr There are just over 24 hours left to register to vote if anyone has not yet done so! https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote Make sure you are registered - if you are you might know by having already received a poll card or you voted in a recent election at the same address. If you haven't, get it done, it takes 5 minutes. @1802935742840135793 Yes, please listen to what the cat (and Iz) says*! Over 80,000 have registered already today apparently. Deadline is midnight! *Unless you plan on voting for Farage..
June 18, 20241 yr Some interesting political history for this election to think about: In a fascinating post on the Comment is Freed Substack yesterday, the elections expert Dylan Difford examined in detail all the various electoral records the result next week might break. His article is well worth reading in full, but this is what he says about milestones that Labour might pass. Getting into the 390s [number of seats] puts Starmer on a par with the landslides of Clement Attlee in 1945 and Margaret Thatcher in 1983. 420 seats are needed to top Blair’s seat haul, but owing to there being fewer seats than in 1997, 415 will be enough to secure the largest majority in post-war Britain. Climbing to 430 seats would see Starmer in charge of the largest single-party majority since the introduction of majority male suffrage, overtaking the Conservatives’ landslide from a century ago, while 447 would create a majority larger than that attained by the National Government parties in 1935. Surpassing the 493-seat majority of the National Government in 1931, however, seems fanciful, requiring Labour to take 540 seats. However, some models do suggest that overtaking the 470 seats won by the Conservatives in that election is not wholly implausible, which would be the most seats ever won by one party in a western democratic election. And this is what Difford says about precedents for how few seats the Conservatives might be left with. Falling below a third of seats (217) would be fairly universally regarded as a severe defeat, but it is collapsing beneath the 165 seats won in 1997 that would indicate the worst result for the party in living memory. Returning fewer than 156 MPs, or 151 if you wish to be proportional to the size of the Commons, would replace 1906 as the party’s worst result since it was founded in 1834; this should be the expectation according to most prediction models. Surpassing the 106 seats (proportionally 123) won by the Tory faction in the 1754 election would truly be hitting rock bottom, while not being able to top the 52 seats clung on to by the remnants of Labour in the 1931 election would signify a wipeout.
June 18, 20241 yr Asked why his party has not promised to scrap changes brought in last year requiring voters to show a photo ID before casting a ballot, Starmer said his party would look into a review of its impact after the general election. "I am concerned about the impact. I won't shy away from that. But my message today is remember your ID when you go to vote this time around," he told Sky News Looks like the Draconian, Tory dictatorship for100 ywars, voter id laws are gonna gey the chop! :cheer:
June 18, 20241 yr Asked why his party has not promised to scrap changes brought in last year requiring voters to show a photo ID before casting a ballot, Starmer said his party would look into a review of its impact after the general election. "I am concerned about the impact. I won't shy away from that. But my message today is remember your ID when you go to vote this time around," he told Sky News Looks like the Draconian, Tory dictatorship for100 ywars, voter id laws are gonna gey the chop! :cheer: This is indeed one indication that once Labour get in power then the rolling back of Tory authoritarianism might, might occur. However I would not base your vote on that or count on it - I'm quite sure that some of the illiberal Tory policies will remain out of inertia, even if I expect the Labour government to be far more proactive than we're used to government being.
June 18, 20241 yr I think Labour are presenting themselves in a certain way to get themselves in power, but once they're there, I don't think they'll be anything like the Tories in terms of the sheer hostility and cartoon villain-esque nature of some of the policies.
June 20, 20241 yr There is only 14 days left and the conservatives are now involved in yet another scandal with various insiders having been caught placing suspicious bets. They really are going out in the worst way possible. Two candidates and various others. Anyone still supporting them at this point cannot be budged, they've probably reached their lowest possible bottom and at the worst possible time. https://x.com/chrismasonbbc/status/1803689400070480360?s=46
June 20, 20241 yr It’s just such a farce. The Tories really have turned into a parody of themselves. It’s like their campaign over the past few years has been written by Spitting Image.
June 20, 20241 yr There is only 14 days left and the conservatives are now involved in yet another scandal with various insiders having been caught placing suspicious bets. They really are going out in the worst way possible. Two candidates and various others. Anyone still supporting them at this point cannot be budged, they've probably reached their lowest possible bottom and at the worst possible time. https://x.com/chrismasonbbc/status/1803689400070480360?s=46 And to think some people are STILL voting for them.
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