The title says it all.

 

Happy for a mod to stick a poll on as well with the 0-50, 50-100 style.

 

Here’s my predictions on day one:

 

Conservatives 155

Labour 405

Scottish National Party 36

Liberal Democrat 29

NI 18 - SF 8 SDLP 2 Alliance 3 5 DUP

Plaid 4

Reform 1

Green 2

Edited May 25, 20241 yr by Doctor Blind

Just copied and pasted not sure on the welsh stuff

 

Conservatives 145

Labour 401

Scottish National Party 27

Liberal Democrat 58

NI 18 - SF 9 SDLP 2 Alliance 3 5 DUP

Plaid 4

Reform 0

Green 1

I’ll have more of a think and get back to this!

My initial thoughts (and basically this is after years of being underwhelmed and frustrated by Elections/ the referendum) are that the Tories will do better than expected. The Lib Dems wont make the gains they're expecting to. - i'm sure they'll make gains, but they'll be modest.

 

Labour will have a majority, but I don't think its going to anywhere near as big as expecting some polls are suggesting.

 

Reform wont get any seats, but like UKIP will poll 2nd/ 3rd in alot of places. The Greens remain on 1, the SNP have a slight collapse, but still maintain around 30.

 

I think its just the pessimist in me and not really having faith in the British public to actually not vote Tory. Hopefully i'm wrong though and the Tories do as badly as the wipe-out polls suggest

Edited May 24, 20241 yr by ElectroBoy

205 Conservatives

395 Labour

10 SNP

35 Liberal Democrat

3 Plaid

0 Reform

2 Green

8 Sinn Fein

7 DUP

2 SDLP

2 Alliance

 

Something like that but I have not looked at current projections in detail where it would be easy to look at the number of realistic targets for the smaller parties. I think the SNP could look very shaky indeed in any Labour or Lib Dem-facing seat and face a much stickier Scottish Tory vote so it could be very volatile.

 

Fun fact: the Tory vs. Labour swing in Scotland has gone the opposite way in Scotland compared to England in the last four Westminster elections: swing to Labour in 2010 (!), hugely against Labour in 2015, against Labour in 2017, against Labour in 2019. It looks like it will be in sync this time.

 

NI 18 - SF 9 SDLP 2 Alliance 3 5 DUP

Where are these DUP losses happening?

Conservatives 249

Labour 328

Scottish National Party 9

Liberal Democrat 41

NI 18 - SF 7 SDLP 1 Alliance 1 DUP 8 IND/UUP 1

Plaid 3

Reform 0

Green 0

IND/Others - 2 (1 being Corbyn)

 

In relation to NI, I predict that Sinn Fein will gain Foyle from SDLP but lose North Belfast to the DUP. Alliance will lose North Down to Alex Easton if he stands, or UUP if he doesn’t. Alliance will gain Lagan Valley. Sinn Fein will just about hang on to Fermanagh South Tyrone, although will be one of the first by-elections of the new parliament if Michelle Gildernew is elected as an MEP in the South (although legally she can be both, which is an odd quirk).

205 Conservatives

395 Labour

10 SNP

35 Liberal Democrat

3 Plaid

0 Reform

2 Green

8 Sinn Fein

7 DUP

2 SDLP

2 Alliance

 

Something like that but I have not looked at current projections in detail where it would be easy to look at the number of realistic targets for the smaller parties. I think the SNP could look very shaky indeed in any Labour or Lib Dem-facing seat and face a much stickier Scottish Tory vote so it could be very volatile.

 

Fun fact: the Tory vs. Labour swing in Scotland has gone the opposite way in Scotland compared to England in the last four Westminster elections: swing to Labour in 2010 (!), hugely against Labour in 2015, against Labour in 2017, against Labour in 2019. It looks like it will be in sync this time.

Where are these DUP losses happening?

 

Potentially in Lagan Valley and East Belfast

 

Electoral Calculus curently has the following:

 

LAB 479 (Majority 308)

CON 92 *.*

LIB 44

REF 0

GRN 2

SNP 12

PC 3

DUP 8

SF 7

SDLP 2

AL 1

 

I think there are huge error bars on the final result - Labour could be around 350-380 most likely I think - but it wouldn't take much for them to be as high as 450+ or so as this prediction has with the Tories utterly DESTROYED. (The outcome I'm hoping for, obvs).

 

I believe the Green gain is predicted to be Bristol Central. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bi...Bristol+Central

 

 

I have added a poll btw, if you would like me to add others please let me know - I just didn't want it to become too unwieldy. The bins are probably a bit wide, I could narrow them a bit but tried to make it fairly reasonable. Send all feedback to Brett-Butler xx

My current prediction that I put into YAPMS about a month or so, online tool for visualising political maps - bit fiddly for doing the whole 600 seat thing as the website was designed with US state predictions where you 'only' have to click 50 things to make your prediction.

 

Obviously I went a little general with some of the areas of the country I'm less familiar with and it's based a little on vibes with the minor parties so I'm not predicting specific seat results from the map in the above link, more filling in areas with parties I expect to get seats in around that area, but it's a decent estimation for the start of the campaign, I'll rejig it for a full thing later on once I get more of an idea and poke around some constitutencies in detail.

 

Labour 430

Conservatives 115

Lib Dems 56

SNP 19

Reform 5

Green 2

Plaid 4

SF 8

DUP 7

Alliance 2

SDLP 1

 

Possibly a little high on LDs and Reform but I am expecting even nominally safe seats for the Conservatives to become fights with their nearest challengers which could lead to a few unexpected victories here and there.

The Lib Dems could definitely benefit quite significantly from Tactical Voting- I wouldn't be surprised to see them be as high as 56. If they do end up in that region, there's not a totally impossible chance they end up as the official opposition, which would be hilarious.

 

Reform on the other hand will struggle to pick up anything, their vote mainly goes towards reducing the number of seats the Tories get by splitting the Leave/right wing/conservative vote with some 2nd place finishes and Labour squeaking though, until you get north of 15-17% (even the biggest polls for them recently haven't been high enough and then will likely fall back now)- even Ashfield which is currently held by Lee Anderson of Reform is predicted to go back to Labour atm.

 

The seats where Reform placed 2nd in Survation's MRP in March were: Barnsley North, Barnsley South, Easington, Hartlepool, South Shields, Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney and Rhondda & Ogmore - all of which were predicted to be big Labour wins.

 

I think had Nigel Farage stood in somewhere like Clacton they may have picked up a seat - but that's not happening now.

I wonder how the Labour right who would vote reform would say ‘ok happy with the London based Starmer enough to vote him’?

 

 

went with Labour 350-399, Conservative 100-199, Lib Dem 25-49. think current projections of Labour nearing 500 and Tories in double digits aren't very realistic, though I would love to see the Tories reduced to nothing.

So my general thoughts of what will happen are:

 

- Labour's lead over the tories to be just inside 20 points thanks to the don't knows/Tory core vote coming back home

 

- Lib Dems perform well in their target seats and especially well in the South East/West

 

- Greens perform well in big metropolitan areas to move into some distant second places in inner-London and/or some other big urban areas but don't make the breakthrough beyond Brighton Pavillion, which they'll hold on a tight majority.

 

- Reform perform like UKIP but slightly worse (i.e. no seats)

 

- SNP get destroyed in the Central Belt but are a bit more resilient in their Tory-facing seats in the borders & north east

 

- Plaid Cymru hold what they have and not much more

 

- DUP lose votes to the UUP/Alliance/TUV across the board leading to a few seat losses to Alliance

 

So with that all told,

 

Labour 426

Conservative 114

Lib Dems 68

SNP 20

Plaid Cymru 3

Green 1

Reform 0

DUP 6

Sinn Feinn 6

Alliance 3

SDLP 3

Independents 2 (Jeremy Corbyn & Jason Zadrozny)

 

Labour 347

Conservative 201

Lib Dems 36

SNP 32

DUP 12

Plaid Cymru 5

Sinn Feinn 5

SDLP 4

Green 3

Alliance 3

Reform 2

Independents 0

205 Conservatives

395 Labour

10 SNP

35 Liberal Democrat

3 Plaid

0 Reform

2 Green

8 Sinn Fein

7 DUP

2 SDLP

2 Alliance

Just realised my guess has 650 seats for GB alone oops

So my general thoughts of what will happen are:

 

- Labour's lead over the tories to be just inside 20 points thanks to the don't knows/Tory core vote coming back home

 

- Lib Dems perform well in their target seats and especially well in the South East/West

 

- Greens perform well in big metropolitan areas to move into some distant second places in inner-London and/or some other big urban areas but don't make the breakthrough beyond Brighton Pavillion, which they'll hold on a tight majority.

 

- Reform perform like UKIP but slightly worse (i.e. no seats)

 

- SNP get destroyed in the Central Belt but are a bit more resilient in their Tory-facing seats in the borders & north east

 

- Plaid Cymru hold what they have and not much more

 

- DUP lose votes to the UUP/Alliance/TUV across the board leading to a few seat losses to Alliance

 

So with that all told,

 

Labour 426

Conservative 114

Lib Dems 68

SNP 20

Plaid Cymru 3

Green 1

Reform 0

DUP 6

Sinn Feinn 6

Alliance 3

SDLP 3

Independents 2 (Jeremy Corbyn & Jason Zadrozny)

 

Where do you think the SDLP will pick up a seat? Given their decline they’re going to struggle to even hold on to even one of their current seats.

Labour 347

Conservative 201

Lib Dems 36

SNP 32

DUP 12

Plaid Cymru 5

Sinn Feinn 5

SDLP 4

Green 3

Alliance 3

Reform 2

Independents 0

 

Which seats in the rest of Great Britain do you expect the DUP to pick up? (There’s only 18 seats in Northern Ireland) :P

Which seats in the rest of Great Britain do you expect the DUP to pick up? (There’s only 18 seats in Northern Ireland) :P

 

Yeah I suspected that may have been a stupid number :lol:

Thank goodness they don’t have 12 seats lol

Thank goodness they don’t have 12 seats lol

 

It wasn’t the most optimistic prediction :D