Slightly overshadowed by the UK's psychodrama, but if you are lucky enough to live in an EU country, the great bumper election of politics is happening for the first time in 5 years from Thursday to Sunday, with elections from the Netherlands to Croatia. Of course, this will be the first elections of this kind in which the UK will not vote, which I'm sure will make them rather less covered here, but hopefully there is still some interest.

 

While of course these are not national politicians, just the EU's democracy working, these results are often taken as a European snapshot of the strength of X left-wing/right-wing political grouping (in spite of how at least in the UK, they used to be somewhat protest votes as is evidenced with UKIP/Brexit Party winning our final two), and in the previous version, centrist forces won as normal but saw their seat counts reduced at the expense of greens, liberals and the far right. Anyway fun stuff with political results for every European country, should you care about such things.

 

The groupings in order of current size in the European Parliament:

EPP - traditional centre-right and Christian Democrat parties e.g. Germany's CDU.

S&D - traditional social democratic parties e.g. Spain's PSOE.

Renew (formerly ALDE) - liberal, pro-EU parties e.g. France's Renaissance (formerly En Marche!)

Greens-EFA - green and regionalist parties e.g. Czechia's Pirate Party or just any Green Party

ID - far-right nut-jobs e.g. Italy's Lega

ECR - conservatives who are too wacky for the EPP and not wacky enough to be in with the racist lot e.g. Poland's Law & Justice

The Left (formerly GUE-NGL) - far left-wing parties, unfortunately high chances of being pro-Russia and/or Eurosceptic e.g. Greece's Syriza

Non-Inscrits - parties that don't want to attach themselves to any grouping for their own reasons, either they're independent or they're awful e.g. Hungary's Fidesz

 

 

D'hondt voting system.

Not usually a subject of interest but election-fever has got me once again so I did follow this article:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0wwepv5l6xo

 

Interesting to see what happens in Slovakia, Belgium, the Netherlands and France.

Must have read like 100 articles in the Guardian predicting huge wins for the far right (whether in the ID or ECR). Let's hope that is more muted.

 

I remember the last EU elections in the UK. Such a topsy-turvy time for British politics with all those ghastly Brexit MEPs being elected and that horrible "turning back on Parliament" stunt they did. In a way glad we don't have these if only for the embarrassment they caused the UK - although would rejoin EU in Heartbeat, perhaps that's the only Brexit "benefit"

It probably isn't that consequential on an aggregate level but what happens in each country will tell us various things about their national politics.

 

That the BBC article asks whether Belgium will still be a country is a little hyperbolic.

D'hondt voting system.

 

Slight point of order - in the Republic of Ireland, the D'Hondt system isn't used for elections to the European parliament. Instead it is the Single Transferable Vote, the more democratic, fairer and sexier form of PR.

 

I'd predicted at the start of the year that there would be a rightward shift in the European elections this year, and would start the process of a reversal of how the left/right views the EU within the UK (with the left becoming more Eurosceptic and the right being more inclined towards it). Whilst the former is likely to happen, the latter might take a few more years to unravel.

 

In Ireland, it is likely that the Greens will lose seats, as well as two far-left pro-Russia independents (Mick Wallace & Claire Daly), with potential gains for Sinn Fein and Independent Ireland, a newly formed populist party.

Far-right parties predicted to see big gains in Germany and Austria, ffs

 

looks like the German CDU is still well ahead of AfD, but AfD have pushed the ruling SPD to third place. Which seems based on the last European Parliament elections in Germany that it's essentially AfD swapping places with the Greens, a downgrade for sure but I've been predicting this underwhelming German government's ability to take the worst option on every foreign policy issue (as well as I'm sure some domestic issues I'm less familiar with) isn't going to bode well for the next German federal so sadly unsurprising.

 

Far-right FPÖ is actually first in Austria according to exit polls.

Far right leading Macron's Renaissance part by 2:1 in France prompting Macron to dissolve Assembly and call National elections. Serious stuff.

holy what are you doing Macron

 

France's politics have been screwed ever since he came to power but sheesh this doesn't feel good

Bold move from Macron dont really get it unless its some macho power move he thinks will show strength

Far right leading Macron's Renaissance part by 2:1 in France prompting Macron to dissolve Assembly and call National elections. Serious stuff.

 

Just saw on BBC now. :o Worrying times ahead.

These kind of snap elections to shore up power rarely go well, plus if Macron is unpopular we could easily see a Far right Prime Minister which would be very dangerous.

 

Also of huge concern is the amount of support the Austrian, German and French Far Right hold with the youth of the country too. The President of the National Rally who was so successful today, Jordan Bardella is 28.

 

And in a period where the effect of the climate emergency has become too apparent, especially in certain European countries, the Greens were big losers, currently down 19 seats from 72 to 53.

 

In a couple of countries (Sweden, Portugal) the Far Right support fell but overall not a good night for the progressives at all.

In other aftershocks of these elections, the Belgian Prime Minister has resigned.

.The Spanish PM called a snap election after bad local election results and just. About got away with it. There’s another European PM who called an election after bad local election results, but I can’t remember who it was.

This always happens the so called far right does well but never wins power. Especially in France, we here it cycle after cycle. The political systems are designed that no non centrist voice wins.

Far-right parties predicted to see big gains in Germany and Austria, ffs

 

looks like the German CDU is still well ahead of AfD, but AfD have pushed the ruling SPD to third place. Which seems based on the last European Parliament elections in Germany that it's essentially AfD swapping places with the Greens, a downgrade for sure but I've been predicting this underwhelming German government's ability to take the worst option on every foreign policy issue (as well as I'm sure some domestic issues I'm less familiar with) isn't going to bode well for the next German federal so sadly unsurprising.

 

Far-right FPÖ is actually first in Austria according to exit polls.

The only real question in Germany is if the SPD or Greens will hold on to enough power to go alone into a coalition with the CDU or if they’ll both jump into it. Everyone is generally very dissatisfied with the Ampel coalition, primarily because it spends more time arguing than actually doing anything. Everything takes far too long and really they’re entirely f***ed by the decision to let the FDP hold the purse strings. Ironically enough, it’s even damaging the FDPs own vote because they’re being so stingy with the cash that the government is basically paralysed at times. It took years for the citizenship reform to pass, the cannabis law, etc

 

BSW stealing a bunch of the vote from the AfD as expected has tempered their growth a little but BSW aren’t exactly much better