That one really did the rounds on Twitter (with the narrative that Labour have fallen off dramatically since the election, which, to be clear, they have in a quite disastrous fashion) but also important to check other recent polls:

Floor of 20% for the big two, high in mid-to-high 20s, Reform somewhere roughly about level with them.

I've heard a bit of talk about council by-elections not really matching up with these results, which is hard to prove really, as they're all very individual and local data points; my interpretation is that Reform are only throwing money at a few of these seats and in others, they're nowhere as their name recognition is still way below certainly the big two, if not Libs and Greens too.

Some interesting polls recently, the reporting of which speaks volumes about the press.

A few weeks ago, the Observer reported on poor ratings for Starmer, Farage and Badenoch. Ed Davey's ratings in the same poll were a lot better than those of the other three. Yet the Observer chose not to mention that at all.

A YouGov poll published today showed something close to a four-way tie. Labour were in front, albeit on a miserable 24%. The Lib Dems were fourth on 17%, their highest rating since the election. Not a peep from the press.

Then there is perhaps the most significant of them all. Readers of the press could be forgiven for thinking that voters were deserting Labour for Farage's fascists in their droves. However, another poll shows that the Lib Dems are by far the biggest gainers from 2024 Labour voters switching their support. Farage's mob are the fourth biggest gainers.

Problem with the LDs is they can’t win nationally. They win in certain areas of the country.

7 minutes ago, Steve201 said:

Problem with the LDs is they can’t win nationally. They win in certain areas of the country.

In the short term, that is probably true. One of the consequences of the party's ruthless targetting at the last election is there are a lot of seats where the Lib Dem vote is very low. While Farage's fascists only lost a few deposits in July, the Lib Dems lost dozens. However, we seem to be moving back towards a period where the Lib Dem "Would bever vote for them" figure is relatively low. I'm sure it is lower than the figure for Farage's loons.

Yeh it’s mainly because Farage can win in the industrial areas, rural areas and in big cities(probably least here actually).

My hope is a vote split enough to allow Greens, LDs & Labour coalition with Cons & Reform unable to get a high enough number of seats to form a coalition.

On 08/04/2025 at 21:29, Suedehead2 said:

Some interesting polls recently, the reporting of which speaks volumes about the press.

A few weeks ago, the Observer reported on poor ratings for Starmer, Farage and Badenoch. Ed Davey's ratings in the same poll were a lot better than those of the other three. Yet the Observer chose not to mention that at all.

Almost every poll rating the party leaders in recent months has shown Ed Davey on top. Has that been reported? Most polls now show the Lib Dems polling higher than they have done since before the 2019 election. How many "news" providers have reported that?

Really looking bad for Labour and the Tories in Wales

Wild numbers

How many seats would that give reform - 300?

Reform building a big lead

Some pretty wild polls recently

You’d have to say Labour would be mad to continue with the disability cuts when you see these numbers

One thing I think is important to notice is that in these polls, as in the local elections, Reform's gains are more at the expense of the Conservatives than they are from Labour, though they are taking some points from Labour. If you simplistically divide the parties into left-right blocs, there has been movement of roughly 8-10% since the election towards the right bloc, but over the last few months, that divide has stayed largely static, it's just Reform are eating the Conservatives as they become more solidly entrenched as a party.

So yes, Labour would be mad to continue the disability cuts, but more so that they can get themselves enough back from LDems and Greens (and because of geographic spread they don't need as much as Cons do from Reform), rather than a wholesale stopping the bleed to Reform. Which is still a factor, but only in certain parts of the country.

Also noting that these polls predict a Reform majority which is still premature - simple non-MRP seat projection polls have them taking parts of the country (like the prosperous South and inner city seats), where they haven't done well in the locals and aren't predicted to take on MRP polls.

compare this (simply modelled from that BMGResearch poll)

to this April 2025 MRP poll from Electoral Calculus (227 REF, 180 LAB, 133 CON, 49 LDEM)

I'm not saying it can't happen but it would be a strange next few years if we ended up with an election result anywhere near the first image.

People keep saying that but you can’t take all these red wall areas constantly by just taking Tory votes. The problem is maybe on a bigger level it’s mostly Tory votes but in any given Labour stronghold that is not London almost Reform can win now. I saw this comment on Bluesky and maybe it shows reform is winning everywhere

The disability cuts is a thing Labour won’t recover from so we shall see what the MPs can do. That will be a fatal mistake. If they get Andy Burnham over Starmer and reverse disability cuts I’m sure they will beat reform when crunch time comes

5 hours ago, Iz 🌟 said:

One thing I think is important to notice is that in these polls, as in the local elections, Reform's gains are more at the expense of the Conservatives than they are from Labour, though they are taking some points from Labour. If you simplistically divide the parties into left-right blocs, there has been movement of roughly 8-10% since the election towards the right bloc, but over the last few months, that divide has stayed largely static, it's just Reform are eating the Conservatives as they become more solidly entrenched as a party.

So yes, Labour would be mad to continue the disability cuts, but more so that they can get themselves enough back from LDems and Greens (and because of geographic spread they don't need as much as Cons do from Reform), rather than a wholesale stopping the bleed to Reform. Which is still a factor, but only in certain parts of the country.

Also noting that these polls predict a Reform majority which is still premature - simple non-MRP seat projection polls have them taking parts of the country (like the prosperous South and inner city seats), where they haven't done well in the locals and aren't predicted to take on MRP polls.

compare this (simply modelled from that BMGResearch poll)

to this April 2025 MRP poll from Electoral Calculus (227 REF, 180 LAB, 133 CON, 49 LDEM)

I'm not saying it can't happen but it would be a strange next few years if we ended up with an election result anywhere near the first image.

The second image doesn’t makes sense, there’s no way the tories are doing well enough to win back southern Lib Dem Tory marginals!?

13 hours ago, Iz 🌟 said:

One thing I think is important to notice is that in these polls, as in the local elections, Reform's gains are more at the expense of the Conservatives than they are from Labour, though they are taking some points from Labour. If you simplistically divide the parties into left-right blocs, there has been movement of roughly 8-10% since the election towards the right bloc, but over the last few months, that divide has stayed largely static, it's just Reform are eating the Conservatives as they become more solidly entrenched as a party.

So yes, Labour would be mad to continue the disability cuts, but more so that they can get themselves enough back from LDems and Greens (and because of geographic spread they don't need as much as Cons do from Reform), rather than a wholesale stopping the bleed to Reform. Which is still a factor, but only in certain parts of the country.

Also noting that these polls predict a Reform majority which is still premature - simple non-MRP seat projection polls have them taking parts of the country (like the prosperous South and inner city seats), where they haven't done well in the locals and aren't predicted to take on MRP polls.

compare this (simply modelled from that BMGResearch poll)

to this April 2025 MRP poll from Electoral Calculus (227 REF, 180 LAB, 133 CON, 49 LDEM)

I'm not saying it can't happen but it would be a strange next few years if we ended up with an election result anywhere near the first image.

Regardless of polling model or forecast model, it’s always those rats in the southern uplands and Aberdeenshire that let the side down and prevent us from our dream of a c**t free Scotland.

7 hours ago, Steve201 said:

The second image doesn’t makes sense, there’s no way the tories are doing well enough to win back southern Lib Dem Tory marginals!?

I said it was April 2025, so slightly out of date, but it makes more sense than the other one on a grander scale - if we're doing the extrapolating from local elections thing, look at Wiltshire and rural Northamptonshire, where the Tories are still holding strong.

And it theoretically makes more sense, because it uses a more advanced and accurate polling method (MRP) that I mentioned. You can look at the data tables on EC's website and it's consistent with a total Reform share of 25% with the others on 23%. If Reform are taking Tory votes more generally, then yes, the first map would be more accurate, but this is the thing, I don't think they have the ability to wrangle the votes in 'leafy' Southern England on a wider scale with their current political strategy, we're fast building to a Reform vs all the other parties and in some of these areas, like real deep blue Conservative strongholds, the other party is going to win (irregardless of if some individual seats on that MRP poll are Lib Dem now and won't go with that strategy).

'Red Wall', as in Labour seats that were lost in Tory to 2019, are prime Reform pick-up territory on these numbers so I would expect many of those to go to them on the back of a similar vote to that which elected the Tories in those seats in 2019, so yeah, just taking Tory votes. Other parts of the country, particularly Labour held seats in 2019, against a similar right-wing threat with the left-wing party on the back foot, is a bit more questionable (though I reserve the right to change my opinion after the 2026 local elections).

That's interesting data on a council by-election in rural Yorkshire, but rural Yorkshire is only one type of 'middle class' area and it's more proximate to Reform-friendly areas more generally.

Maybe I could sum up by saying this, I don't see a future where Reform gets 400+ seats. Labour could, because no one was threatened by Starmer's Labour. Plenty of people are going to be very radicalised against the possibility of PM Farage.

2 hours ago, Iz 🌟 said:

Maybe I could sum up by saying this, I don't see a future where Reform gets 400+ seats. Labour could, because no one was threatened by Starmer's Labour. Plenty of people are going to be very radicalised against the possibility of PM Farage.

Boris did win 365 and while it’s not identical at all there isn’t that big of a leap in theory. Normally no true but it depends on the situation. In many areas there is a big Muslim vote now it’s hard to rely on a Muslim vote when the party has been somewhat complicit in supporting a genocide in Gaza. If you split it up you could easily see SNP and reform cleaning up Scotland. Reform cleaning up Wales and rural England and lots of the North. Then they’ll just need tactical voting elsewhere to get 300-400 seats. I don’t think it’ll happen but it definitely could.

Reading this too https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2025/05/reforms-locals-victory-was-no-fluke it’s very similar to Trump in that reform are gaining many voters who haven’t voted before or haven’t voted in many years. If that continues it’ll be hard to predict anything

Be interesting (or worrying) if Reform can keep things going.

Look at the last parliament. Boris went from stonking majority - to an even bigger lead post him getting Covid + Vaccine Roll out. Labour were trailing badly in the polls.

Fast-forward through the parliament and 2 PMs later and the Tories are toast and Labour are in.

Its good the next election is still quite far away as things will probably change. For instance I can see Kemi getting ousted and Jenrick replacing her - he'll probably get a vote bump/ more interest just from the fact he is a white man which probably matters to the type of voter that they/ Reform are going for.

Edited May 10May 10 by ElectroBoy