Nah unless there’s an economic collapse (which unfort always seems to happen to Labour in gov) Starmer will win the next election with a big loss of majority - prob a majority of 30 or so!

Ye things look to be a case of steady Labour government will slowly turn the tide back in their favour with less of a show/big hiccups that reform could latch onto and more positive news. I think as well whenever Kemi is ousted as conservative leader that could see the conservatives start gaining/eating into reform again.

The tories will come back they always do, no one is listening to them now because the mistakes of the past still dominate the political landscape but in 3 years events will have moved on and Starmer will be to blame for whatever decisions that are made.

The tories also generally are better political communicators than Labour or the left they create simple narratives about complex issues that resonate with the general public who lap it up.

The left have to explain things more because it’s not obvious why equality would be better for the whole and in politics when you’re trying to explain yourself you’re losing the arguement.

This is why ceiling talk is always premature because if something becomes a two horse race you can usually get 40-50%

Ipsos’ newly relaunched Political Monitor shows Reform UK on a 34% vote share, the highest Ipsos has ever recorded for them, and nine points ahead of the Labour Party. Just under a year since the 2024 general election, Ipsos in the UK’s new findings show how dramatically the political landscape has changed:

• Labour’s 25% voting intention is the lowest share Ipsos has recorded for Labour since October 2019.

• The Conservatives’ 15% is the lowest share Ipsos has ever recorded.

• Keir Starmer and the government’s satisfaction ratings have fallen significantly since last year, with around three in four (73% and 76% respectively) now dissatisfied.

Scary numbers for the Tories though

FYI, by 'current ceiling' I'm referring to current poll variations, what the average highs and lows are for each party with the current weekly polls, subject to change. Reform's 'potential ceiling' sure, could be higher than that based on changing factors like for example total Tory collapse and them then being the default RW party (though not sure they could hold such a big coalition without some concessions to Tory ideological territory which then might turn off their disaffected voters, the Johnsonite problem again) but then any party could have a high potential ceiling given the right environment and political winds and that's somewhat more speculative than I want to be with just numbers.

Given this poll, that is technically still wrong to say their ceiling is 30 but then again Ipsos are an occasional pollster, (their first poll since the GE!) with differing methodology to the weekly ones.

I'd like to note this is a changed methodology from the last Ipsos panel (and includes prompting for Reform, something they didn't do with their polling at the GE and before) and they've given a confidence rating of 4% either way:

Though, disregarding that this single poll is a few points off from the other polls right now, I do tentatively like this methodology (certainly looks better than the shysters at FindOutNow), random sampling by online users is probably better than telephone polling at this stage, though online does have potential to be more self-selecting for high political interest than other methods.