It's gonna be total guesswork trying to track "Who" on this list now that it's out of the top 40 😂

I've since revised my "Hometown Glory" estimate, it's closer to 115k so will probably show up in 2-3 weeks if it maintains its current sales.

6 minutes ago, gasman449 said:

It's gonna be total guesswork trying to track "Who" on this list now that it's out of the top 40 😂

I've since revised my "Hometown Glory" estimate, it's closer to 115k so will probably show up in 2-3 weeks if it maintains its current sales.

“Who” managed to fall all the way below “Busy Woman” this week suggesting its streams (subject to the bots not coming back) are extremely poor.

I’m not sure about “Hometown Glory” making it at all given that it’s already down to 10k per week.

Re-entry for Wonderwall this week (previously: 1995: #10, 1996: #51, 2021: #76, 2022: #80, 2023: #78, 2024: #75), it has charted on audio streaming for one week this year (#96 in week 3). Therefore The Sound of Silence is still the only song currently on the YTD not to have charted on audio streaming yet this year.

The Giver will definitely enter next week, no other obvious entry imo, but I'm sure we'll get something. I think Close to You, Creep and Pink Skies are in trouble, have accepted that Everybody Wants to Rule the World is likely to just keep clinging on for now.

On 15/04/2025 at 16:23, gasman449 said:

It's gonna be total guesswork trying to track "Who" on this list now that it's out of the top 40 😂

I've since revised my "Hometown Glory" estimate, it's closer to 115k so will probably show up in 2-3 weeks if it maintains its current sales.

Still think that's an optimistic estimate, 110k is the absolute max I could see it being at tbh. I agree with Julian that it won't show up, especially with it down to #50 in the mids. Looks like Sultans of Swing is also out of the picture, think that was also a victim of whatever went on with what I'm assuming was an Amazon streaming number adjustment last week.

I think 'The Scientist' enters this week as well actually.

Let’s add ‘MUTT’ as an outside contender too, I have it at 127.5k after today’s chart, but there’s definitely enough margin of error in that estimate that it could sneak in this week.

Edited April 18Apr 18 by Maestro

The Giver will enter this week, Close To You is most likely to drop out

Also "Show Me Love" is currently on 128,703 so may also be a close contender this week. More likely than not it won't show up until next week though.

41 minutes ago, gasman449 said:

Also "Show Me Love" is currently on 128,703 so may also be a close contender this week. More likely than not it won't show up until next week though.

Yeah, I think it's not quite done enough to make it this week - I have Wonderwall at #100 on 122k and I can't see the cut off going up by less than 7k.

I also have Say My Name on 123.5k, so also not too far away.

Do you have estimates for that and MUTT

8 minutes ago, Maestro said:

Yeah, I think it's not quite done enough to make it this week - I have Wonderwall at #100 on 122k and I can't see the cut off going up by less than 7k.

I also have Say My Name on 123.5k, so also not too far away.

Do you have estimates for that and MUTT

I have Say My Name on 126k and Mutt on 124k, more confident about the former as it's been on the chart longer. I have this current week's cutoff at 130k so think all the songs brought up today are likely to miss but there's always a chance. BTW I have The Scientist on 130k so it probably has a better chance of getting in this week than any of the newer stuff brought up today.

Ah nice one. I didn’t really have a formal estimate for The Scientist, was a bit of a punt that it could enter after a good week on Spotify, nice to see you agree.

I was wondering if anyone would be interested in looking at this (or maybe it’s just me)?

In the streaming era the EOY chart has appeared heavily biased towards songs released/peaking in the first half of the year, especially Q1. In the physical eras the Q4 sales tended to be so much higher that it often compensated for the lack of weeks in the chart so that even a December release could place high at EOY.

So I’ve been trying to estimate a ‘rolling’ 12 month best sellers chart to reduce some of the bias and highlight some bestsellers that would not reach the very top of any EOY chart.

I apologise for errors but from my (very) rough estimates, with the help of some of the brilliant data from this thread (so thanks to Julian and many others) I think the  top 20 chart for the 12 months from the beginning of Q2 2024 to the end of Q1 2025 would look something like this:-

1 Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 2.064m

2 Hozier - Too Sweet 1.711m

3 Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 1.697m

4 Shahboozy - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 1.586m

5 Billie Eilish - Birds Of A Feather 1.574m

6 Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe 1.554m

7 Lose Control - Teddy Swims 1.532m

8 Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please 1.389m

9 Noah Kahan - Stick Season 1.366m

10 Dasha - Austin 1.314m

11 Myles Smith - Stargazing 1.257m

12 Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile 1.100m

13 Sabrina Carpenter - Taste 1.100m

14 Post Malone Ft Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help 1.089m

15 Gracie Abrams - That’s So True 0.950m

16 Gigi Perez - Sailor Song 0.940m

17 Teddy Swims - The Door 0.940m

18 Rose and Bruno Mars - APT 0.920m

19 Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us 0.910m

20 Taylor Swift Ft Post Malone - Fortnight 0.890m

It isn’t massively different from the EOY 2024 but positions of the top songs have shuffled, and differences will develop more as we work through Q2 and Q3.

Any comments, corrections (especially with sales accuracy) and criticisms welcome (even if it’s just to say you think it’s a waste of time), and if anyone has already done something like this I apologise!

Edited April 22Apr 22 by Jaz13music
Correction

I love the rolling chart idea - I used to try and do it in the download age but it took too much time. If you want to estimate it every month or quarter I’ll definitely read it! Interesting to see “Espresso” getting that #1 peak.

Been wanting to do something similar to this but just haven't had the patience, thanks @Jaz13music

Would definitely be willing to collaborate on a rolling chart if you need the help!

Edited April 22Apr 22 by gasman449

It's interesting that calendar years are no longer as important a benchmark for how successful a song is any more which is kind of a shame. As an 80s and 90s pop music child, I can still vividly associate huge hits from back in the day with different calendar years that also had other milestone moments for me as I came of age whereas nowadays hits carry over into multiple years (Benson Boone anyone?) as their longevity grows and grows from infinite passive streaming, that it's not as easy to associate a song with a particular year. I think it devalues the notion of "the biggest hits of 20**" as half those songs will also be on next year's or last year'slist too (or in albums cases, the next decade). Look at Julian's weekly sales to date list. We're well into Quarter 2 of 2025 but the vast majority of bestsellers included are all songs that were hits in 2024. I guess it's just another evolution in the way we consume and track music....

28 minutes ago, Jaz13music said:

I’ve been trying to estimate a ‘rolling’ 12 month best sellers chart to reduce some of the bias and highlight some bestsellers that would not reach the very top of any EOY chart.

Interesting idea, and I thought this April-March time window would be ideal for capturing the biggest hits breaking through the previous year as they'd have had time to build up more streams.

I am surprised to see 'Fortnight' dropping out from the EOY top 20 as it wasn't released until April so will have only gained from an approx. 810k in 2024 into this year (even before its RSD release).

^ Yes I reckon “Fortnight” must have done roughly 100-110k so far this year.

Week 16:

1	1	Lola Young	Messy	702,000	880,000
2	2	Rosé and Bruno Mars	APT.	666,000	1,020,000
3	3	Gracie Abrams	That's So True	600,000	1,030,000
4	4	Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars	Die With A Smile	553,000	1,190,000
5	8	Alex Warren	Ordinary	468,000
6	6	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	455,000	900,000
7	5	Chrystal	The Days	450,000	620,000
8	7	Billie Eilish	Birds Of A Feather	423,000	1,640,000
9	9	Chappell Roan	Good Luck, Babe!	415,000	1,620,000
10	10	Gigi Perez	Sailor Song	407,000	1,000,000
11	11	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	405,000	2,190,000
12	12	Sabrina Carpenter	Espresso	378,000	2,130,000
13	13	Sabrina Carpenter	Taste	374,000	1,170,000
14	14	Teddy Swims	Lose Control	370,000	2,200,000
15	15	Kendrick Lamar	Not Like Us	342,000	960,000
16	16	Teddy Swims	Bad Dreams	332,000	570,000
17	17	Teddy Swims	The Door	328,000	1,000,000
18	18	Myles Smith	Nice To Meet You	311,000	420,000
19	19	Shaboozey	A Bar Song (Tipsy)	307,000	1,640,000
20	23	Tate McRae	Sports Car	299,000
21	20	Hozier	Too Sweet	297,000	1,770,000
22	22	Myles Smith	Stargazing	296,000	1,310,000
23	21	Sabrina Carpenter	Please Please Please	296,000	1,440,000
24	25	Lady Gaga	Abracadabra	284,000
25	24	Noah Kahan	Stick Season	283,000	2,800,000
26	26	Sabrina Carpenter	Bed Chem	278,000	670,000
27	27	Kendrick Lamar & Sza	Luther	266,000	360,000
28	28	Sonny Fodera, Jazzy & D.O.D.	Somedays	266,000	740,000
29	29	Gracie Abrams	I Love You, I'm Sorry	260,000	740,000
30	30	Chappell Roan	Hot To Go!	251,000	910,000
31	31	The Weeknd and Playboi Carti	Timeless	248,000	470,000
32	34	Alex Warren	Carry You Home	246,000	550,000
33	32	Sam Fender	People Watching	239,000	340,000
34	33	Doechii	Denial Is A River	239,000	240,000
35	35	Kendrick Lamar & Sza	All The Stars	235,000	2,150,000
36	36	Billie Eilish	Wildflower	232,000	750,000
37	37	The Killers	Mr Brightside	228,000	6,290,000
38	38	Bl3ss & CamrinWatsin featuring BbyClose	Kisses	221,000	880,000
39	43	Sabrina Carpenter	Busy Woman	221,000
40	39	Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen	I Had Some Help	220,000	1,130,000
46	55	Doechii	Anxiety	194,000
59	65	Drake	Nokia	168,000
62	73	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	162,000
71	82	Tate McRae	Revolving Door	150,000
88	-	Chappell Roan	The Giver	137,000

Entered this week:

The Giver

The Scientist

Left this week:

Close To You

Wonderwall

Thanks for the positive feedback!

4 hours ago, Julian_ said:

If you want to estimate it every month or quarter I’ll definitely read it! Interesting to see “Espresso” getting that #1 peak.

Yes, I would love to do it regularly.

When I looked at a rolling chart more frequently I realised that movement in rankings was almost glacial (like the end of year chart is by December) so felt that quarterly was the most useful, I don’t know if you’d agree?

I agree ‘Espresso’ was the most interesting example, in fact the reason I did the chart in the first place! The 2 million sales in 12 months is impressive too!

4 hours ago, gasman449 said:

Would definitely be willing to collaborate on a rolling chart if you need the help!

Thank you! Yes help would be very welcome especially with some of the week to week sales as songs fall down the charts )eg my error with ‘Fortnight’ as below) or maybe in expanding to a top 40

4 hours ago, jimwatts said:

I am surprised to see 'Fortnight' dropping out from the EOY top 20 as it wasn't released until April so will have only gained from an approx. 810k in 2024 into this year (even before its RSD release).

48 minutes ago, Julian_ said:

^ Yes I reckon “Fortnight” must have done roughly 100-110k so far this year.

Ah, that’s the one I was most unsure about.

So what would you estimate sales up to week 13 to be? Would maybe put it at 19th or 20th. I can edit the list with your help if so?

Am I right in guessing Anxiety is now above Who? If so what a fall off!

13 minutes ago, Jaz13music said:

Thanks for the positive feedback!

Yes, I would love to do it regularly.

When I looked at a rolling chart more frequently I realised that movement in rankings was almost glacial (like the end of year chart is by December) so felt that quarterly was the most useful, I don’t know if you’d agree?

Ah, that’s the one I was most unsure about.

So what would you estimate sales up to week 13 to be? Would maybe put it at 19th or 20th. I can edit the list with your help if so?

Quarterly sounds great. I’d guess 80k for “Fortnight” in Q1.

9 minutes ago, gasman449 said:

Am I right in guessing Anxiety is now above Who? If so what a fall off!

Yes! I was obviously overestimating it in the weeks straight after it left the chart. It’s at least above “Slow It Down” which I have on 192.5k so helpfully that places it quite narrowly this week.

2 hours ago, Jaz13music said:

Thank you! Yes help would be very welcome especially with some of the week to week sales as songs fall down the charts )eg my error with ‘Fortnight’ as below) or maybe in expanding to a top 40

Just had a go at a full top 40, week 14 2024 to week 13 2025. You're pretty much bang on with your sales estimates, just had to change Hot To Go (it would've done a few sales in 2023 so its total wouldn't fit this list).

1 Espresso 2.064m
2 Too Sweet 1.711m
3 Beautiful Things 1.697m
4 A Bar Song 1.586m
5 Birds Of A Feather 1.574m
6 Good Luck Babe 1.554m
7 Lose Control 1.532m
8 Please Please Please 1.389m
9 Stick Season 1.366m
10 Austin 1.314m
11 Stargazing 1.257m
12 Die With A Smile 1.100m
13 Taste 1.100m
14 I Had Some Help 1.089m
15 That’s So True 950k
16 Sailor Song 940k
17 The Door 940k
18 APT 920k
19 Not Like Us 910k
20 I Like The Way You Kiss Me 910k
21 Fortnight 900k
22 Cruel Summer 878k
23 Hot To Go 855k
24 Houdini 830k
25 Kisses 820k
26 Slow It Down 819k
27 Messy 780k
28 Million Dollar Baby 762k
29 Mr Brightside 753k
30 Scared To Start 725k
31 We Can't Be Friends 724k
32 I Can Do It With A Broken Heart 718k
33 Wildflower 710k
34 I Love You I'm Sorry 710k
35 Prada 704k
36 Pink Pony Club 700k
37 Somedays 690k
38 Texas Hold Em 670k
39 Guess 660k
40 Backbone 654k