Mr Brightside by The Killers is on 6.7m sales now. How close is it to Shape Of You now?

Edited Saturday at 10:104 days by adrianreavill83
Incorrect spelling of song corrected

Absolute maximum 150k behind I think. Should overtake in the first half of next year. Obviously it’s possible that Wham! get between the two for a bit over Christmas

Also I wonder if we won’t have any Christmas songs in the Top 40 for the first time since 2020. Looks so far like Wham! could be well down on their 680k from last year, and the Top 40 bar will probably be around 650k.

Thinking it’s possible that Brenda could miss this year. Especially given Christmas Day streams are going to be badly estimated.

13 hours ago, Maestro said:

Absolute maximum 150k behind I think. Should overtake in the first half of next year. Obviously it’s possible that Wham! get between the two for a bit over Christmas

Based on the speed of the 11th platinum certification (301 days vs 672 days), Mr Brightside was "selling" at 14K per week whilst Shape of You was at 6K per week.

If that trend was continued, Mr Brightside would overtake before Christmas, indeed they would both be at 6.77M on 12th December 2025.

However Shape of You has been noticeably slowing down and may only now be at 5k per week, in which case they may be very close indeed right now.

Edited Sunday at 14:152 days by Matt63
minor typo

Tbf that’s much higher level analysis and calculation than I did so you may well be right. Would expect an OCC article when the lead changes either way so am sure we’ll know

Week 46:

1	1	Alex Warren	Ordinary	1,974,000
2	2	Lola Young	Messy	1,365,000	1,540,000
3	3	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	1,301,000	1,750,000
4	4	Rosé and Bruno Mars	APT.	1,265,000	1,620,000
5	5	Gracie Abrams	That's So True	1,104,000	1,540,000
6	8	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	1,074,000
7	6	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	1,058,000	2,850,000
8	7	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	1,036,000	1,050,000
9	9	Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars	Die With A Smile	1,035,000	1,670,000
10	10	Chrystal	The Days	942,000	1,110,000
11	11	Billie Eilish	Birds Of A Feather	938,000	2,160,000
12	12	Chappell Roan	Good Luck, Babe!	915,000	2,120,000
13	13	Teddy Swims	Lose Control	891,000	2,730,000
14	14	Sabrina Carpenter	Espresso	811,000	2,560,000
15	15	Gigi Perez	Sailor Song	801,000	1,400,000
16	18	Sombr	Back To Friends	798,000
17	16	Sabrina Carpenter	Taste	789,000	1,580,000
18	17	Teddy Swims	Bad Dreams	787,000	1,030,000
19	19	Sombr	Undressed	783,000
20	24	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	778,000
21	20	Teddy Swims	The Door	765,000	1,430,000
22	21	Tate McRae	Sports Car	759,000
23	22	Myles Smith	Nice To Meet You	753,000	860,000
24	23	Myles Smith	Stargazing	737,000	1,750,000
25	25	Shaboozey	A Bar Song (Tipsy)	714,000	2,050,000
26	26	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	712,000
27	27	WizTheMc & Bees & Honey	Show Me Love	700,000
28	28	Alex Warren	Carry You Home	685,000	980,000
29	29	Hozier	Too Sweet	679,000	2,140,000
30	30	Noah Kahan	Stick Season	669,000	3,190,000
31	31	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	667,000	4,480,000
32	32	The Killers	Mr Brightside	656,000	6,720,000
33	34	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	642,000	3,860,000
34	33	Ed Sheeran	Azizam	639,000
35	35	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	627,000
36	36	Sonny Fodera, Jazzy & D.O.D.	Somedays	605,000	1,080,000
37	37	MK featuring Chrystal	Dior	599,000
38	43	Saja Boys, Andrew Choi Neckwav, Danny Chung, Kevin Woo, samUIL Lee & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Soda Pop	597,000
39	41	Disco Lines & Tinashe	No Broke Boys	596,000
40	38	Sabrina Carpenter	Please Please Please	591,000	1,730,000
48	52	Sam Fender & Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	534,000
50	53	Saja Boys, Andrew Choi Neckwav, Danny Chung, Kevin Woo, samUIL Lee & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Your Idol	530,000	1,040,000
61	62	Ed Sheeran	Sapphire	495,000
63	65	Skye Newman	Family Matters	484,000
70	90	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	468,000
80	81	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	How It's Done	441,000
86	87	Fred Again…, Skepta and PlaqueBoyMax	Victory Lap	425,000
98	100	Tate McRae	Just Keep Watching	403,000
100	-	Tears For Fears	Everybody Wants To Rule The World	401,000	3,440,000
-	98	Chappell Roan	The Giver	401,000

Soda pop platinum next week 🙌 do we think YI will manage before year end

Golden are coming for top 5

The low 30s-high 40s area must be pretty close, a lot of unexpected movements going on there!

Edited 20 hours ago20 hr by gasman449

We’ll lose “Somedays” and “Please Please Please” from the Top 40 for “…Ophelia” and something else. Hard to say yet if it will be “Rein Me In”, “Your Idol” or “Last Christmas”.

“Blessings” is the other contender but think it’s fallen away a bit too much now.

1 hour ago, 777666jason said:

Soda pop platinum next week 🙌 do we think YI will manage before year end

It's a very likely possibility. It's 70k away from 600k, and it's been doing over 20k a week. If it does just 14k weekly for the rest of the year, then it'll be certified Platinum on 19th December.

Edited 19 hours ago19 hr by DanielCarey

Thanks to the total sales given by Music week I've worked out YTD sales for "Last Christmas" are 87,201. 16k of that was in week 1 and around 25k in weeks 45/46 so it must do around 1k a week outside of the festive period.

33 minutes ago, gasman449 said:

Thanks to the total sales given by Music week I've worked out YTD sales for "Last Christmas" are 87,201. 16k of that was in week 1 and around 25k in weeks 45/46 so it must do around 1k a week outside of the festive period.

1k a week whose streaming buying it in June fess up 🤣🤣

Will this be the year Last Christmas overtakes Mr. Brightside & Shape Of You in all time units?

Yes - this is interesting!

It overtakes Mr Brightside every year. They leapfrog each other constantly.

But exciting to see the outcomes!

I’ve asked on another thread but do we have current estimates or figures for the all time top 5.

I’ve done a rough estimate for the all time totals for the top 5 biggest songs of all time:

Ed: 6,744,000

Killers: 6,720,000 (Julian)

Band Aid: 6,315,000

Wham!: 6,297,293 (confirmed today)

Lewis: 6,230,000

Other than Wham! does anyone have any more accurate estimates than these, or feel any of these are off?

I feel Wham! will now stay permanently ahead of Lewis Capaldi, and if they haven’t already overtaken Band-Aid, will probably do so this week or if not, then next week.

And the number 1 position will probably change hands twice over the next two months (or rather, three times: Ed - Killers - Wham! - Killers).

A brief discussion with someone suggested that this is an over estimate for Band-Aid and Ed Sheeran, but possibly an underestimate for Lewis Capaldi.

Did we not get all time numbers for Band Aid last year due to the (embarrassing) 40th anniversary release?

53 minutes ago, Maestro said:

Did we not get all time numbers for Band Aid last year due to the (embarrassing) 40th anniversary release?

I have an estimate of 6,270,000 as of 27th December. Where that comes from, I don’t know. But the question is, how many sales has it had since then? Probably somewhere between 30,000 and 45,000.

@Matt63 has slightly different figures to me:

Ed: 6,725,000

Killers: 6,720,000 (Julian)

Band Aid: 6,300,000

Wham!: 6,297,293 (confirmed today)

Lewis: 6,300,000

This would suggest just before November, Lewis re-overtook Wham! But this week Wham! will overtake both Lewis and Band Aid, and The Killers should overtake Ed Sheeran.

It’s all shaking up this week, and hopefully the OCC will tell us something.