Will Nigel Farage be PM in 2029? After a recent poll put them level with Labour the popular press and some electoral experts seem to think he can do it and win around 400 seats. Interesting Ch4. programme last night.

I can't see it myself and think the bubble will burst before then. Labour support will rise again and they'll be re-elected but with a much reduced majority.

Edited June 27Jun 27 by CRAZY CHRIS

It all depends on the economy imo!

It’s a long time. Anything can happen between then. If there was genuinely an election right now I think it’d end up pretty close

It depends on the economy as Steve says - I think a lot depends on how much scrutiny Reform get put under. Right now they basically spout off whatever drivel they want.

Easy for people to vote for them when they're promising the world to everyone. I would say, if they did get in to power, there is no way they'd last the full term.

They are going to struggle with not being an institution, now they've developed themselves among the politically aware they can win council by-elections, next step is to get people who'll vote in the general but not pay attention elsewise to back Farage and cohort. However if they can convince the standard Conservative voting areas that they are now the correct right-wing choice, they'll get seats there, they're certainly getting seats in the East Coast and former industrial North as well as a bunch of other 'left-behind' areas across the country, plus the complete lack of positive feeling around the Labour government will not help them defend many of their narrowly won seats, though if the electorate in that seat is not convinced by roaring right-wingers then there's likely not much else to vote for.

Honestly depends whether they hold to their philosophy, in which case they may get the Corbyn treatment but from the right as institutional powers start to see them taking power as a real possibility, or whether they adopt more Tory-like structures in which case they'll probably continue to be welcomed by business/media but risk losing the disaffected voters to whatever else is next.

If the political picture holds as it is (it won't, because there's likely almost 4 years before a general), then my long-term predictive skills sees a few likely options for the make up of the parliament after the next election:

a) Small Labour majority, Labour continues as before but with much less wiggle room and likely even less inspiring philosophies, they get badly beaten in 2034, probably by a much stronger Reform, though potentially at this point without Farage? Not sure how Reform lives life beyond him yet.

b) Small Reform majority. Reform tear everything up a la Trump with their """stonking mandate""", businesses lose confidence in the UK, the inexperience and extremism of their parliamentary candidates causes their majority to shrink, but they limp onto the end of the term with the UK much worse off economically and a completely changed political picture, and then the election is won in 2034 by whichever left forces can use the opportunity to present a narrative (the Labour centre would completely lack credibility in this timeline but they've effectively split the left so much I'm not sure how we go about bringing that together).

b) ii) Reform are actually somewhat successful in short-term (long-term they are almost guaranteed to be a complete disaster) making their voting base feel better off and Farage manages to keep the party under control enough that he can start really putting the boot in to any opposition (what Trump wants to do, what Fidesz has done in Hungary) and they become the only viable political force in the country for the future (bad timeline)

c) Reform minority. Likely have to work with the Tories in a confidence-and-supply arrangement, eventually this is likely broken, they lose control and there are fresh elections. Think the very first and second Labour governments in 1923/1929, quickly removed by more traditional parties who decide that everyone has had enough of that nonsense thank you very much, and so potentially our first Grand Coalition post-war.

d) Lab + Lib coalition + whoever else is needed to form a workable government. Potentially good, as it will likely lead to some voting system reform, but likely to face huge media and right-wing voter opposition as it's likely in this scenario Reform were the biggest party (and therefore the 'rightful winner') but because they're so toxic or they destroyed the Tories so completely, they don't have a working majority so couldn't form a government, expect the coalition detractors to choose to ignore this.

So answer to the question... who knows. It's possible. But if they were any party I would not be saying they have an easy ride, so I will also say here they will not have an easy ride. unless the media gives them one.

Farage favourite to be next PM either with Reform or as Tory leader.

Farage will never be Tory leader lol