Posted Monday at 15:082 days It's all well and good each month doing a list of the contenders, but aside from the random guesswork, which nations have the record for being the most accurate predictors? It's an interesting science and voting patterns change all the time, but with participants always putting so much stock into others remarks (such as Persephonia's "fruit" comment) it does get you thinking who could, and should, you believe when it comes to odds and predictions.Who has the best track record for accuracy?Whose predictions are usually the most reliable?Who shouldn't you take any notice of when reading up on odds and predictions? If there was an algorithm to solve this one, I'd call upon the spreadsheet genius of @diva thin muffin to tell us the answer!
Monday at 15:122 days I tend to find Rich is pretty close to the money. Nobody can be bang on because we're not psychics, but 9 times out of 10, Rich seems to have like 3 of the top 5 predicted correctly which is admirable. I've been really trying recently and it's HARD!
Monday at 15:132 days Author We need a BuzzJack supercomputer to throw all the entries into a hat and see what comes out on top based on a whole variety of variables.
Monday at 15:282 days Without going back and checking every odds thread, I don't know. I used to be much better at it when we had more entries that were less inspired and would often sweep the board. In 2009-11 I was probably able to predict at least three quarters of the winners correct, but I have nowhere near that strike rate now. Think I've had three of the last four though - Annalisa, Ninajirachi and Erin LeCount, as I predicted Night Tapes 3rd. I think I get anywhere from 50-70% of the top ten right most months, and a few of the top five.The final is easier to predict than the semis because you know everyone is involved in the mix, you've heard where vocal hype is going (not always with pop and the silent voters though), you know what songs are similar sounding and will be competing for votes, and you know the songs/genres that have fallen at the semi stage and who might in turn get a boost (e.g. with so many pop songs falling in Semi 2 this time, there are fewer pop contenders in the final which will benefit the pop that did make it).I don't do semi predictions anymore as I'd be hopless with them in such small semis with so many moving parts. Indeed, last night I'd have probably got about 50% correct in each semi.Seven used to be very good at it (we don't always see psychic predictions anymore), Dan's are often good.Some people tend to boost their personal favourites too high, and you see it in the votes when they come in, an anomaly in the odds compared to every other set can often be explained by someone giving it their 18/15. I've done this myself too - it's hard to get past personal bias because you are willing them to do well if you love them so much yourself. Edited Monday at 15:292 days by gooddelta
Monday at 15:372 days Trifoddski was the one for me!Although for impressively nailing almost all of my DNQs, DanBet was the go to (though thankfully not this month phew!)
Monday at 15:372 days RontBet is basically the BJSC Michelin star, and everybody wants to be on the list. RichDanRobScene If Brer is vocally perplexed, indifferent, or doesn't like your entry, then you're in with a shot.
Monday at 15:422 days 4 minutes ago, blacksquare said:RontBet is basically the BJSC Michelin star, and everybody wants to be on the list. RichDanRobScene If Brer is vocally perplexed, indifferent, or doesn't like your entry, then you're in with a shot.You got my position spot on! 🪦
Monday at 20:142 days I think I tend to be quite good at it when I bother to make final predictions, but then I'm infrequent because the main reason that draws me to want to make a prediction is when I think the existing predictions are missing something (no crowd following for me). Of course that makes me quite prone to bias, and this whole statement to confirmation bias based on a few on-point calls from select contests, but if I make a prediction, watch out xThis month I think I will because it does seem quite interesting to have a go, so maybe I'll look silly later.
Monday at 20:482 days imagine being good at predictionsthis is why I tend to say “hear me out” with mine 😭😭😭
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