Under a week to go until the release of Madonna’s new album, but how well will it sell in its first week?

First week sales of her albums from the 2010s:

56,335 MDNA (#1)

37,245 Rebel Heart (#2)

27,227 Madame X (#2)

Less than 50k would be disappointing.

I have 43k in my head for some reason.

39K

I've gone 30-39k, to put my expectations a bit low.

She has like a million variants so it should do well, but you never know.

45k

39K

I think there’s genuine hype this time around definitely more so than what there was for Madame X and then there’s the fact the album itself will be much more “pop” and the type of pop music people like from Madonna too!

Mix that with possible decent streams (especially for an artist from Madonna’s era) and the different formats I’m gonna say she could push the 40k mark nearing 50k as a possibility but that may be a stretch.

I hope it gives her another #1 album but I’m not gonna get too excited! But would be amazing if she finally got another album to top the charts and this feels like it could be that album!

I’m not sure if there is genuine hype outside the fanbase though? Certainly for her old stuff, a bit like Katy Perry. Her collab with Sabrina didn't exactly set the charts on fire and the other two songs flopped. I do think it’ll do better than the last two albums though - I’m guessing there’s more formats this time around?

43 minutes ago, Benson Boone said:

I’m not sure if there is genuine hype outside the fanbase though? Certainly for her old stuff, a bit like Katy Perry. Her collab with Sabrina didn't exactly set the charts on fire and the other two songs flopped. I do think it’ll do better than the last two albums though - I’m guessing there’s more formats this time around?

Week one will be telling on the hype. Obviously accounts I follow on socials would be interested in Madonna so I’m seeing a lot of posts regarding the album but I think at the moment the GP even if they don’t necessarily like her are aware she’s in promo mode for something. The Sabrina collab did well enough for Madonna though I’d say there’s not many 80s females who could go top 40 with a new track with or without a feature.

I’ll be purchasing the album 3 times too (2x physical copies form her store then I’m gonna buy the digital ICON edition on iTunes with the extra track on Friday) so if fans are buying multiple copies (and she has fans who’d be getting even more) I think a good sales week is doable.

Sienna Spiro looks like the biggest threat by new releases (although depends what Olivia is doing too although it’ll be Olivia’s week 4 by next week).

Edited Saturday at 16:512 days by Jordanlee1402

Less than 50,000.

It feels like there’s not much hype but I think she could do 55-60k purely because of the variants.

Even Macca did 33k with an album that basically no one streamed. Madonna would have lots of variants AND decent streaming for such a "legacy act", even better than Kylie, so 50k should be within the reach. If she gets like 8-10k from streams and the physical sales, that'd be enough.

I can't see her getting anywhere near 10k streams

Have we got a list of albums from legacy acts that have done 10k streams first week?

Maybe 10k is out of reach. Kylie did 4k in streams with Tension and Rolling Stones 3.2k with Hackney Diamonds, so Madonna should do at least more than that. I am still sticking with 8k.

Edited yesterday at 14:521 day by Sour Candy

40K - 50K based on all variants and a big promo.

40k-49k

16 hours ago, Sour Candy said:

Maybe 10k is out of reach. Kylie did 4k in streams with Tension and Rolling Stones 3.2k with Hackney Diamonds, so Madonna should do at least more than that. I am still sticking with 8k.

I think 8k is ambitious too, I'd be happy with 5-6k in streams, don't think she is really more popular than Kylie here anymore, (I dare so it's the other way round perhaps).