But then When You Believe was played in full on last weeks X Factor and has had no impact in the charts. It doesn't all work out that way

 

The X-Factor playing it in full they was just repeating it to the core audience that would have either bought it last year or not bothered then and certainly would not now!

Last time I-Tunes crashed... I can see him selling 200k+... I mean look at Faith Hill she's gonna go top 10 after he song was played and no appearance.

 

Leon can easily do 200k+

Indeed! If an unknown singer can get a Faith Hill song after singing it for 2 minutes on the X-Factor into the Top 10 then I have no doubt that Leon will easily reach 90-100k and quite possibly a lot more!

Seriously doubt it will reach Leona's first week sales of BL from last year.

 

In fact, if he totalls Leona's first week sales (219k), throughout the entire chart history of Don't Call This Love, I think he'll be doing well.

 

I still think he'll have a battle on his hands to get the #1 spot - there's no guarantee he'll sell above 50k. Most of the teenage girls who voted for him (which I'd imagine made up the majority of the vote) will have moved onto the next "hot young thing".

 

#1 or #2 first week is the most likely outcome (although if he landed at #3 or lower I would PMSL), but will then quickly exit the top 10, particularly as it isn't getting good radio support whatsoever.

 

I can honestly see a McFly from week 3 onwards (week 2 might stay top 10 as his album is out that week).

I really like the song too and never actually supported him on the X Factor last year. Should sell well in its first week though I imagine it will do better on physical release rather than downloads if enough shops stock the CD of course which isnt likely these days.

^ Leona's Bleeding Love sold more physicals in its first week on release, although not by much - it was a 51.6:48.4 ratio in favour of physicals.

 

Given the current market, and all things except this being equal, it might be expected that Leon would sell less physicals as they're less readily available.

 

However, I think it will be the opposite - his core fanbase (or what remains of it) will be out in force, snapping up the single, whilst downloads will be poor by comparison as the song will fail to draw in a wider audience.

 

I go back to what I said earlier, if he doesn't turn into a mini-McFly I'll be slightly surprised.

Oh gawd, about 250 thousand gullible, chavvy x factor viewers will buy this.

There's zero probability he will outdo Leona's first week sales, so 250k is unrealistic for first week sales (if that's what you meant).

 

250 won't be far off his overall tally - although that's probably the max he can expect to sell IMO.

I mean look at Faith Hill she's gonna go top 10 after he song was played and no appearance.

Country music back in the charts again :cheer:

Brilliant song

105k nothing to do with the quality of the song - all to do with an X Factor appearance

That last word is totally uncalled for. Even if you dislike a singer why wish them dead? :angry: :angry:

 

Yeah i was thinking that after i wrote it :( Sorry :blush: :(

Seriously doubt it will reach Leona's first week sales of BL from last year.

 

In fact, if he totalls Leona's first week sales (219k), throughout the entire chart history of Don't Call This Love, I think he'll be doing well.

 

I still think he'll have a battle on his hands to get the #1 spot - there's no guarantee he'll sell above 50k. Most of the teenage girls who voted for him (which I'd imagine made up the majority of the vote) will have moved onto the next "hot young thing".

 

#1 or #2 first week is the most likely outcome (although if he landed at #3 or lower I would PMSL), but will then quickly exit the top 10, particularly as it isn't getting good radio support whatsoever.

 

I can honestly see a McFly from week 3 onwards (week 2 might stay top 10 as his album is out that week).

 

I honestly don't think that's the case - anyone who wins x-factor has to have a wider fanbase than that. I've read that the highest percentage of votes cast on the x-factor is by women in the 30+ age group. Leon will appeal to teenage girls of course, but he will also be popular with older women.

 

As to how many he will sell - well less than Leona surely, his song isn't as good and airplay not as widespread. The x-factor performance (unless his performance is awful) will push the sales up over 100k I think.

 

Simon Cowell knows how to manipulate the public and I'm sure there will be emphasis on Leon's 'improvement', and how much 'care' has been taken with the album - this will allow the audience to buy in to the whole thing. Perhaps the odd tear or two from Leon to tug at the heartstrings and voila bumper sales. So I'm saying 130k (but could be a lot more).

 

I still think this is a great song. Have heard it on the radio a number of times now. I just wonder if it will achieve high download sales due to the type of genre the song is in. Didnt Shayne Ward appear on the show with his first real single -No Promises - and that failed to go to number 1? I see Leon as more of an album seller.

Edited September 27, 200816 yr by gremley

I still think this is a great song. Have heard it on the radio a number of times now. I just wonder if it will achieve high download sales due to the type of genre the song is in. Didnt Shayne Ward appear on the show with his first real single -No Promises - and that failed to go to number 1? I see Leon as more of an album seller.

 

 

Yes but Shayne didn't get a midnight download after his performance to support the single I don't think?! I really think regardless of the quality of the song the fact that it will be available to buy a few hours after his performance will have it fresh in everyones minds and I am sure will be mentioned throughout the whole show!

 

Also with the amount of times the show gets repeated on ITV2 it will have good exposure all week :lol:

I still think this is a great song. Have heard it on the radio a number of times now. I just wonder if it will achieve high download sales due to the type of genre the song is in. Didnt Shayne Ward appear on the show with his first real single -No Promises - and that failed to go to number 1? I see Leon as more of an album seller.

 

Shayne didn't perform "No Promises" on x-factor - that was released in April 2006 - so no performance on the programme. He did perform "Breathless" on x- factor last year - but the single wasn't available for download until one week later, which must have hurt the sales. Shayne had also virtually no radio airplay for any of his songs, I've definitely heard Leon's on the radio a lot more.

 

Leon is getting tons of airplay hes on all the main playlists apart from radio 1, and its getting good reviews. I expect as soon as the video is available that will also get high rotation play. £100k at least I reckon - hopefully a shed load more.

Edited September 27, 200816 yr by therawprawn

The song does nothing for me but it's obvious it's going to go to number one.

Shayne didn't perform "No Promises" on x-factor - that was released in April 2006 - so no performance on the programme. He did perform "Breathless" on x- factor last year - but the single wasn't available for download until one week later, which must have hurt the sales. Shayne had also virtually no radio airplay for any of his songs, I've definitely heard Leon's on the radio a lot more.

 

You are right. Memory must be going. Cant even remember that song now.

Most of his fanbase is Scotland isn't it? I'm sure last year sales of When You Believe had mostly come from Scotland, hardly anything from Wales - cos they snubbed him due to Rhydian and a little bit from England. I'm sure that was the case

You are right. Memory must be going. Cant even remember that song now.

 

And it did sell quite a lot. If it was released on any other week it would have been number 1, but Crazy was so huge it got overshadowed.

 

I actually really like No Promises :heart:

Most of his fanbase is Scotland isn't it? I'm sure last year sales of When You Believe had mostly come from Scotland, hardly anything from Wales - cos they snubbed him due to Rhydian and a little bit from England. I'm sure that was the case

 

Well if the Scottish buy the new single in similar quantities then it will sail to Number 1 :P

Bet you didnt think Leona was going to do that well did you ? , I don't know what expect like the same what happened when Leona first came out. He might even reach Top 10 on Sunday before Physical if his performance on "X Factor" does that well.