Agreed! Especially with the fake version charting High on iTunes (Ala, Katy Perry - IKAG, Leona - Run, Lady Gaga - JD etc...) But I said U2 would get at least one week at number 1... but the fake version of 'Love Story' is really quite shocking me...

 

Aside from Leona who was powered by the X Factor, Katy Perry (45,935) and Lady GaGa (40,537) didn't have particularly spectacular first full week sales.

 

Personally I think Taylor Swift has missed a trick by not releasing next week and capitalising on the build up to Valentines Day, which is perfectly positioned on the Saturday this year!

Some of your dates are wrong.

 

The Saturdays are releasing on the 2nd March, the same week Kelly is physically, so I think The Saturdays will get #1. Also, Taylor Swift isn't getting released 16th February, she is also getting released 2nd March.

Some of your dates are wrong.

 

The Saturdays are releasing on the 2nd March, the same week Kelly is physically, so I think The Saturdays will get #1. Also, Taylor Swift isn't getting released 16th February, she is also getting released 2nd March.

Kelly Clarkson is releasing her downloads on the 20 something... So she could get there on downloads alone... I'm not sure what the thing is with Taylor though... :unsure:

Taylor's Love Story will be available to dowload from iTunes and Play.com from 14th February.

Nah, 80k at least ;) Kelly C will be a force to be reckoned with, but I expect both CR songs to sell really well and I think all 3 will be #1.

 

I suspect we won't agree on that one! :lol:

 

Given the first week sales of comparable American hits by female artists some of which were written by the same pen I see no justification for predictions of weekly sales in excess of 60k.

 

There’s still a rather large question mark on whether it will make the top3/5 in the first place!

 

As for U2, I am on the fence with it, they could well do an oasis and stall at #3 - remember Vertigo was selling well at the time on downloads, but the market share was tiny compared to now and they haven't been tested on 'modern' downloads yet.

 

I don’t think the nature of the market has changed radically with expansion. ;) Kings Of Leon proved decisively last year that indie/rock music could still top the charts.

How was that a chart battle in the US pray tell?

 

Since when have U2 been expected to top the US Hot 100? :blink:

 

Kelly’s single was specifically and cynically written to top the US charts. What an absolutely absurd comparison!

 

Being their least well-received lead single didn’t stop Discotheque racing to the No1 spot with the highest first week sales of their career.

 

Neither Oasis nor their fan base have got to grips with the digital age and still rely heavily on physicals hence their downfall on the singles front.

 

By contrast U2 have flourished in the digital era Vertigo spent 8 weeks at No1 on the download chart while their collaboration with Green Day spent 2 weeks at No1 on iTunes.

 

Now that downloads comprise 95% of the market they can make their download dominance here count.

 

To coin a phrase: "anyone who thinks this song won't be UK#1 is living in cloud cuckoo land". :P

Nice fact; HOWEVER... Rihanna only sold 34,164 copies of Umbrella in her first week and peaked at 60,650. Then there are these American females first week sales:

 

Katy Perry 45,935 (1st full week)

P!nk 53,264 (1st full week & combined)

Lady GaGa 40,537

 

Need I go on?

If anyone seriously thinks Kelly Clarkson is going to (significantly) outperform the above with a vastly inferior track they are living the cuckoo land dream! :lol:

 

Oh I think they'll perform better than the Sugababes/Girls Aloud one and realistically will only need to sell around 60k to beat all the competition. ;)

 

Ethan you are posting so many ridiculous posts regarding this song it is not true.

 

I look forward to your prediction of Kelly Clarkson only reaching UK#19 to be soundly humilated.

 

As for U2 Vertigo peaked on US iTunes at #1 for 4 weeks; in stark contrast Get On Your Boots only reached US iTunes #18.

 

I think that is the real indicator, because back in 2004 it was new technology meaning older more affluent people could afford an iPlayer (which cost £279.99 back then) and therefore download the tracks. Now it is comparatively as cheap as chips, hence the people who buy tracks from iTunes are far broader meaning a lot younger agewise.

 

Some how I can't see more 13 year olds going out and downloading U2's latest in comparison to the record breaking in the USA Kelly Clarkson commercial comeback track.

Some of your dates are wrong.

 

The Saturdays are releasing on the 2nd March

 

No. I am correct if The Saturdays reach No1 it will be on Sunday 8th March 2009. ;)

Ethan you are posting so many ridiculous posts regarding this song it is not true.

 

No more so than your coming across as a non-objective fanatic tbh.

 

I look forward to your prediction of Kelly Clarkson only reaching UK#19 to be soundly humilated.

 

Au contraire when the sales spread between Kelly Clarkson’s actual position and the weeks #19 turns out to be smaller than it’s spread with your fanciful predictions of 100k+ I look forward to your humility. ^_^

 

As for U2 Vertigo peaked on US iTunes at #1 for 4 weeks; in stark contrast Get On Your Boots only reached US iTunes #18.

 

I think that is the real indicator, because back in 2004 it was new technology meaning older more affluent people could afford an iPlayer (which cost £279.99 back then) and therefore download the tracks. Now it is comparatively as cheap as chips, hence the people who buy tracks from iTunes are far broader meaning a lot younger agewise.

 

Some how I can't see more 13 year olds going out and downloading U2's latest in comparison to the record breaking in the USA Kelly Clarkson commercial comeback track.

 

As for using the US iTunes as a direct be all and end all comparative tool for the UK…

 

If they broke the US iTunes up into regions with the same population as the UK I wager that the chart would look vastly different in the mid-west for instance to that in the New York region.

 

The point being that the UK is exhibits more regional trends than the US as a WHOLE such as the consistently strong performance of Irish acts such as U2 ect. ;)

Taylor's Love Story will be available to dowload from iTunes and Play.com from 14th February.

That's too early, it's 2 weeks before physical. I expect it to fall on it's week of physical.

Would be disappointed if U2 make #1. Has to be the poorest U2 single ever.

 

I think Kelly Clarkson will do quite well but imagine sales of 50K or less.

 

Calvin Harris's single is okay, but not #1 material. Especially as dance rarely sells in huge numbers.

My predictions for #1

15/02/09 Eminem, Dr. Dre & 50 Cent - Crack A Bottle

22/02/09 Eminem, Dr. Dre & 50 Cent - Crack A Bottle

01/03/09 Kelly Clarkson - My Life Would Suck Without You

08/03/09 The Saturdays - Just Can't Get Enough

15/03/09 Bryn West and Nessa Jenkins (Rob Brydon & Ruth Jones) – Islands In The Stream

22/03/09 Bryn West and Nessa Jenkins (Rob Brydon & Ruth Jones) – Islands In The Stream

29/03/09 Bryn West and Nessa Jenkins (Rob Brydon & Ruth Jones) – Islands In The Stream

No more so than your coming across as a non-objective fanatic tbh.

Au contraire when the sales spread between Kelly Clarkson’s actual position and the weeks #19 turns out to be smaller than it’s spread with your fanciful predictions of 100k+ I look forward to your humility. ^_^

As for using the US iTunes as a direct be all and end all comparative tool for the UK…

 

If they broke the US iTunes up into regions with the same population as the UK I wager that the chart would look vastly different in the mid-west for instance to that in the New York region.

 

The point being that the UK is exhibits more regional trends than the US as a WHOLE such as the consistently strong performance of Irish acts such as U2 ect. ;)

 

Hello stoopid.

 

I own every single U2 album they ever made. I bought their 1983 War & Under A Blood Red Sky album on cassette when I was 12 back in 1983; likewise I bought The Unforgetable Fire & The Joshua Tree on the first day of release on vinyl back in 1984 & 1987 respectively.

 

So to recap I have been a fan of U2 for over 25 years and have seen then live in concert on 3 separate tours & have bought several of their singles for the B-sides.

 

In stark contrast I have a grand big fat total of ZERO Kelly Clarkson records; I have not even downloaded any of her single tracks. Probably because I have a natural snobbery aversion against talent show acts.

 

However, I think my 25 years + of record buying & listening to the charts gives me an ear for telling a tsumani of a hit single when I hear one; and I will be amazed if Kelly Clarkson's single fails to sell a total of 350K - 400K+ in the UK & go on to be amongst the UK top 15 best selling singles of 2009.

 

That why I seem to do rather good at the Single Prediction Games on Buzzjack & elsewhere.

 

But hey you know best don't you. :lol:

 

 

Hello stoopid.

 

I own every single U2 album they ever made. I bought their 1983 War & Under A Blood Red Sky album on cassette when I was 12 back in 1983; likewise I bought The Unforgetable Fire & The Joshua Tree on the first day of release on vinyl back in 1984 & 1987 respectively.

 

So to recap I have been a fan of U2 for over 25 years and have seen then live in concert on 3 separate tours & have bought several of their singles for the B-sides.

 

In stark contrast I have a grand big fat total of ZERO Kelly Clarkson records; I have not even downloaded any of her single tracks. Probably because I have a natural snobbery aversion against talent show acts.

 

However, I think my 25 years + of record buying & listening to the charts gives me an ear for telling a tsumani of a hit single when I hear one; and I will be amazed if Kelly Clarkson's single fails to sell a total of 350K - 400K+ in the UK & go on to be amongst the UK top 15 best selling singles of 2009.

 

That why I seem to do rather good at the Single Prediction Games on Buzzjack & elsewhere.

 

But hey you know best don't you. :lol:

 

Now how did I guess you’d take the last resort and adopt that tone…

 

You’re a U2 fan? Good for you. But honestly why the indignation? When you have been giving exactly the opposite impression from your contributions on the two tracks.

 

I am not a mind reader so please don’t resort to cheap insults.

 

You may be good at chart predictions but you are HARDLY infallible :lol:, no one is myself included :smoke:.

Hello stoopid.

 

In stark contrast I have a grand big fat total of ZERO Kelly Clarkson records; I have not even downloaded any of her single tracks. Probably because I have a natural snobbery aversion against talent show acts.

 

However, I think my 25 years + of record buying & listening to the charts gives me an ear for telling a tsumani of a hit single when I hear one; and I will be amazed if Kelly Clarkson's single fails to sell a total of 350K - 400K+ in the UK & go on to be amongst the UK top 15 best selling singles of 2009.

 

That why I seem to do rather good at the Single Prediction Games on Buzzjack & elsewhere.

 

But hey you know best don't you. :lol:

 

That’s a bit of a shame considering how vociferously you’ve been arguing the case that it will be a mega hit. Either you love the track and should live dangerously and download it when no ones looking or you just want your predictions to be the unchallenged accepted prevailing theory.

 

In summary you assert that My Life Would Suck Without You will be a mega smash due to its performance on US iTunes and American radio. I accept that an American hit can translate into a UK smash. However I have pointed out that due to the comparative sizes of the US and UK markets our market is more liable to regional variations and after all not every American No1 has topped the charts here!

 

I have outlined the first week sales of comparable American female artists and songs written by Max Martin and Dr Luke above and have concluded that Kelly Clarkson is unlikely to significantly outperform them. Therefore I suggest that the sales spread between her actual position and my initial knee jerk #19 prediction will be less than the spread between it and predictions of 100k+.

 

Both arguments are based on intelligible facts. I have acknowledged the strengths of your argument, which is more than you have been prepared to do. By the same token I have pointed out what I perceive to be the weaknesses of your argument. That’s not an attack on your prediction skills just a difference of opinion. I’ve then gone on to outline my case backing up my arguments with facts. How exactly am I being 'stoopid'? If it’s because I simply don’t agree with you on this small occasion then I suspect the inverse is true.

 

Unless you’re the reincarnation of Michel de Nostredame then we won’t know who will be closer to the eventual outcome until the tack charts in a few weeks. So shall we have an accord and let the feathers rest until then? ^_^

I hope U2 and Eminem DONT make #1, terrible songs.

 

I also hope that the Comic Relief singles wont make the top spot, but that's probably not gonna happen :rolleyes:

 

I like the Calvin song, but I cant seeing it topping the chart, its far too uncommercial these days to appeal to a massive fanbase.

 

Kelly is a dead cert for #1, probably for more than a week.

 

Flo-Rida has a chance of going top3, but I doubt it'll go all the way to the top.

That's too early, it's 2 weeks before physical. I expect it to fall on it's week of physical.

Physical release dates never really matter except that airplay tends to peak around then and radio DJs sometimes announce release dates as the physical release dates which the public often interpret as the dl release date too.

Trust me!! Bono with no shirt on the new video. This video is so cool, lots of stuff happening in the background, there is fire, war, space, a girl with boots, etc, etc.. =)

That could send to No.1.

Trust me!! Bono with no shirt on the new video. This video is so cool, lots of stuff happening in the background, there is fire, war, space, a girl with boots, etc, etc.. =)

That could send to No.1.

 

Well if the backlash is half as bad as the backlash towards Morrissey on Smiths forums for his latest pose with only a 7 inch vinyl single to maintain his modesty, then I suggest a male 48 year old taking his shirt off is dreadfully sad measure that smacks of desparation that could backfire badly.

 

Especially as back in the early 1980s this is the same Bono who criticised the likes of Duran Duran & Wham! for doing the same thing he is doing now. The difference being it is a lot more acceptable for an attractive 20 something male to do than a not so attractive near 50 year old to do.

 

The very opposite of what you'd normally expect from U2.

 

As an indicator for how the new U2 single could do, the lead single from the last two Morrissey studio albums (You Are the Quarry & Ringleader of the Tormentors): Irish Blood, English Heart & You Have Killed Me both peaked at #3.

 

The lead single ″I'm Throwing My Arms Around Paris″ from his forthcoming "Years of Refusal" is out very soon. I would be surprised if that also goes Top 3 because of the changing musical climate which is having an adverse affect on veteran acts.

 

 

Well thankfully radio and ipods provide mediums where you can listen to Get On Your Boots without that grotesque sight! :lol:

 

Although it’s double standards that Madonna can still prance around in tights but if a male of the same age shows some flesh its pandemonium.

The lead single ″I'm Throwing My Arms Around Paris″ from his forthcoming "Years of Refusal" is out very soon. I would be surprised if that also goes Top 3 because of the changing musical climate which is having an adverse affect on veteran acts.

 

Yeah, I think you are right there, Rich - I suspect U2 will get top 3 at most, tbh.

 

Although it’s double standards that Madonna can still prance around in tights but if a male of the same age shows some flesh its pandemonium.

Believe you me, the sight of Madge in that leotard will haunt me for many a year :cry: