Posted August 14, 200916 yr Based on projecting the curve of sales vs chart position down beyond #200, here is my educated guess of what the average sales might be for various positions : Pos Est Av Sales 200 933 250 700 300 550 350 439 400 350 450 296 500 250 600 180 700 135 800 106 900 83 1000 65
August 14, 200916 yr Wow, its quite interesting to see how times have changed as I remember about 5 years ago 900 copies could get you top 50 if you were lucky and now they'd barely scrape the top 200!
August 14, 200916 yr Based on projecting the curve of sales vs chart position down beyond #200, here is my educated guess of what the average sales might be for various positions : Pos Est Av Sales 200 933 250 700 300 550 350 439 400 350 450 296 500 250 600 180 700 135 800 106 900 83 1000 65 Looks realistic, the only thing I can think of is that the tail off (curve) becomes even more flatter than your numbers suggest but I think on the whole I wouldn't discount your analysis.
August 14, 200916 yr Author Looks realistic, the only thing I can think of is that the tail off (curve) becomes even more flatter than your numbers suggest That *was* where the bigest guesswork lies - we don't exactly get many positions or sales from that range... :P
August 14, 200916 yr Based on projecting the curve of sales vs chart position down beyond #200, here is my educated guess of what the average sales might be for various positions : Pos Est Av Sales 200 933 250 700 300 550 350 439 400 350 450 296 500 250 600 180 700 135 800 106 900 83 1000 65 Your missing the long tail. My guess is the top 1000+ will sell over 100 copies in a week.
August 14, 200916 yr Author Your missing the long tail. My guess is the top 1000+ will sell over 100 copies in a week. See my response to Spiidey...
August 15, 200916 yr Author OK, here's version 2 of my list, adjusted for sales at #1000 of 100/wk 200 933 250 700 300 550 350 440 400 350 450 280 500 235 600 175 700 145 800 125 900 112 1000 100
August 15, 200916 yr OK, here's version 2 of my list, adjusted for sales at #1000 of 100/wk 200 933 250 700 300 550 350 440 400 350 450 280 500 235 600 175 700 145 800 125 900 112 1000 100 100 songs between 100 - 112 copies.....?
August 15, 200916 yr I'd imagine the #1000 sells more than 100 copies though i couldn't say how much more than 100. It wouldn't surprise me if the #500 was closer to 400 sales than 200. The OCC computer compiles the chart down to a top 5,000, apparently that is due to the limitations of the computer rather than any other problems. There are about 250,000 songs that record at least one sale each week - I can't imagine that between #1,000 and #250,000 or whatever there are only 99 or so sales separating the songs.
August 15, 200916 yr Author 100 songs between 100 - 112 copies.....? Well, there's only an average of 6 between those selling 900 copies a week, so...
August 15, 200916 yr Author I'd imagine the #1000 sells more than 100 copies though i couldn't say how much more than 100. It wouldn't surprise me if the #500 was closer to 400 sales than 200. It would, me - there is a 380 drop between 150 & 200, and plotting that on a graph & extrapolating, there's no way it can be as high at #500 without seriously kinking the curve. It could perhaps be as high as 300, but no higher. Perhaps someone with a MW sub could email Alan Jones... The OCC computer compiles the chart down to a top 5,000, apparently that is due to the limitations of the computer rather than any other problems. There are about 250,000 songs that record at least one sale each week - I can't imagine that between #1,000 and #250,000 or whatever there are only 99 or so sales separating the songs. Why not? 50,000-100,000 of those probably record only 1 sale... Edited August 15, 200916 yr by vidcapper
August 15, 200916 yr Author OK, here's version 2 of my list, adjusted for sales at #1000 of 100/wk 200 933 250 700 300 550 350 440 400 350 450 280 500 235 600 175 700 145 800 125 900 112 1000 100 I'm reasonably confident of my figure for #200, as the limited number of actual sales for the bottom part of the chart are in that ballpark. I'm hoping to use the iTunes T1000, combined with YTD chart movement of songs that've dropped out of the official T200, to refine my predictions over time.
August 15, 200916 yr So Royksopp - The Girl And The Robot may not have even sold 100 copies on it's peak week? FAIL.
August 15, 200916 yr I maintain that the SPECTACULAR flop suffered by The Girl & The Robot is down to it being a max factor crap track.
August 16, 200916 yr I maintain that the SPECTACULAR flop suffered by The Girl & The Robot is down to it being a max factor crap track. INCORRECT ANALYSIS
August 16, 200916 yr Author OK, here's version 3 of my estimated sales : Pos Est Sales 200 950 250 767 300 620 350 520 400 435 450 365 500 305 600 230 700 185 800 150 900 128 1000 110 How does this look?
August 17, 200916 yr Author OK, here's version 3 of my estimated sales : Pos Est Sales 200 950 250 767 300 620 350 520 400 435 450 365 500 305 600 230 700 185 800 150 900 128 1000 110 How does this look? I guess you're happier with this estimate - I certainly am. I found one below-T200 sales figure from Jul'08, of 520 sales at #321, so that was useful in gauging what adjustment to make.
August 17, 200916 yr :o Very interesting, does anyone know roughly how many songs end up with at least one sale :P?
August 17, 200916 yr Author :o Very interesting, does anyone know roughly how many songs end up with at least one sale :P? Robbie quotes a figure of 250,000+ earlier in this thread, and I see no reason to disagree with that.
August 17, 200916 yr Robbie quotes a figure of 250,000+ earlier in this thread, and I see no reason to disagree with that.I'm going to see if I can find exactly when I saw that figure quoted as I'm now not certain if that is 250,000 per week or 250,000 titles registering a sale in one year. It was mentioned in Music Week but I'll have to try and find the issue in which the figure was quoted.
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