Iz 🌟

That fits with my pattern so far this year, I looked back and all my entries so far this year got 3 18s and less votes than the songs they finished around despite not finishing higher than 20th. But yeah, broadly agree on my entry's chances. Breakaway feels potentially similarly niche to something like Ice or ADHD in that it's a niche pop entry actually, I don't think it has much reach outside of the pop base. But we have certainly had polarising winners before.

Liberal victory, looks like just short of a majority but still a clear victory for Carney. Internationally, a repudiation of Trump (fantastic!), domestically, probably good, Carney seems like a competent sort for Canadians, hope it goes well for them. NDP (traditionally left of the Liberal Party) really cratered, which probably helped the Liberals, but a shame really, though I keep hearing that they're useless whenever I see a conversation on Canadian politics.

I think I have about 15 songs that are on a lock to finish top 10 and I couldn't call which one of those is actually going to go all the way. Strong contest and hard to predict.

Even worse, it thinks I'm Fr*nch.

Yeah, that's more or less where it was the last time we brought it up, wasn't it? Some bookies still have 1/3 Reform. Obviously odds is mostly people putting money down on the possibility, not analytical wisdom (though often these align), so political betters may well have noticed the value in betting Labour, but only to a point, I'd have loaded at least a(nother) quid on them if I'd caught them at 7/2. Have been gaming it out by looking at more by-election comparisons in similar circumstances. Outside of the last parliament, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland in early 2017 seem instructive, Northern England, traditional Labour strongholds, at the time, prior to the 2017 election announcement, Corbyn's Labour were very unpopular, Labour held on in Stoke, with Conservatives and Reform UKIP splitting the right-wing vote. They lost in Copeland, where the Conservatives emerged as the clear right-wing choice and UKIP barely got 1000 votes. Also, the last time UKIP/Reform won any Westminster by-election, the defections of Carswell and Reckless in late 2014, though those were both east coast in what is now Reform Central, they've yet to break through in an old Labour area (most crosstabs have at least twice as many 2024 Con voters defecting to Reform as they do 2024 Lab voters). Though yes, I suspect rather more people will be thinking of North Shropshire and Tiverton as by-elections that take place in traditional party heartlands, overturned by the 'upstart' party on the opposite side of the centre. I'm still rating this as a tossup honestly. If it was a Red Wall lost-in-2019 seat I'd have likely Reform - Amesbury was run close in 2019, but then it was Weaver Vale and had mostly the southern, more Conservative parts of the seat and other countryside bits that are now in other seats, and not Runcorn, which made it a safer Labour seat.

The April/May election bonanza (as much as 2025 is going to get of one) kicks off with Canadian polls open now. The governing Liberal Party was expected to lose with Trudeau still in power, but with a switch of PMs to Mark Carney (formerly Bank Of England governor) and concerns about the political situation vis a vis the Trump Adminstration, the expectation is that of a dramatic turnaround and a Liberal Party victory over the Conservatives. Hopefully, anyway.

Putin has announced a 3-day ceasefire will begin in the Russia-Ukraine war from 8th May. Ukraine hasn't yet responded.

nein tbf that's interesting to see, that in its amalgamation it's accounted for most things except the advantage that high votes gives (IMO what makes the contest not feel like exactly the sort of consensus choice that AI tends to favour) and possibly the amount of alt voters in the contest; e.g. there's no way on this earth that Terra is finishing anywhere near bottom 5. will need to think of real odds now

"I'm the objective one in this conversation, I'm not pro or anti anything, my views are the default ones. Also I hate the Labour party with every fibre of my being and will never trust them on anything". Mate, time to check your own biases. It's okay to believe in something, but try and augment that with a reliable picture of how the world looks and what parties are actually doing on your pet issues and how they have moved the needle over the long term, I was always fair to the Conservative government, even if I personally hated most of their key figures and they were normally doing things that I disagreed with, they sometimes had good policy in some areas. Being as such, the only major thing I'm expecting to happen on Thursday is a shift away from Conservative councils. Labour won't even be in the picture for most of it and even Runcorn won't be that crippling, it could even shock the party into responding.

Not exactly a literally liberal policy (very much an 'in my dictatorship' style policy) but certainly an eye-catching one, I haven't often seen a Lib Dem policy be significant news. But they ARE a nuisance, and people being afraid to speak up about public nuisances is a weakening of societal bonds...

Actually yeah mayoral, to go back to one of the more likely Reform victories that Rooney posted way up the thread, it's likely that Reform will win two mayors in Lincolnshire and Hull. Let's take a look at those candidates. In Lincolnshire, they've drafted Andrea Jenkyns (after a kerfuffle about her residency criteria), who you may remember for being one of the architects of Brexit, a low-level but enthusiastic one, and a key member of the Johnson (to the point she gave a middle finger to crowds as she went to his resignation) and Truss governments. Not exactly a break from the Tories and she lives outside the area, but then Lincolnshire is a pretty conservative area anyway. Sure. In Hull it's even worse, the Reform candidate is Luke Campbell, a local lad who's known for being a boxer and Olympic medalist primarily. Of course that means people from the area will vote for him because they know of him and like him. Does he have any political experience? No, so probably nothing wrong to put him in a devolved mayoral position at first asking, right? He seems to have missed all his hustings appointments, so that's not a good sign. Something Reform clearly have asked him to do, because him speaking would probably worsen his chances.

I mean, what do you expect from someone who calls Labour supporters 'commies'*? Labour are not without fault as a government but the metrics of good governance are slowly turning in the right direction because they've been replacing Conservative do-nothings with people who actually care to tackle the scale of the problem in the mechanisms of government, that's why numbers on NHS, immigration, economy etc, while still far from fixed, are showing promising signs to bear fruit later in the term. Not that Liam S isn't right about far left candidates being well intentioned, but outside of a few truly horrendous grifters, most Labour candidates are well intentioned, just likely more pragmatic about what they can achieve. However I am attempting to keep this thread from running away with arguments about national governance, you can do that in plenty of other threads, because it's literally about the local elections. In that it is fortunate for Labour that they are not defending very much this year and instead it is likely Conservative councils that will choose one of three paths, hold onto a dying party as they always have, give over to a likely hard-working Lib Dem council, or be swallowed by the tides of social media misinformation and elect a bunch of Reform cretins. *fortunately if said area is a large city like London, Manchester, Bristol or Brighton, possibly the only places in the UK even the most detached from reality would describe as 'commie centric', there's no election there this year anyway. Except for mayoral in the case of Bristol.

If you care about your area and its council providing good services, good advice is that you should vote for the best 'fix the church roof' type you see on the ballot paper/leaflets the candidates will likely have been dropping around your ward. While this isn't uniform across parties these are often Lib Dems or independents, though certainly possible to be Labour or Conservatives depending on who's got involved with their local area, Reform candidates are rather more likely to be drooling racists with a dodgy history of being the Facebook weird uncle.

Especially discouraging when people use local governance to 'send a message' to national politics, that's not sending much of a message while you screw up your local council for ages, who'll do far more that affects your lives in their 4 year term. Not looking forward to the amount of Reform councillors who shouldn't be running anything getting their own little fiefdom. My one hope is that Reform just haven't been doing well in council by-elections where you'd think they might if their protest vote was going to translate well into local elections. Still, entirely expecting a series of Lib Dem gains and possibly Green gains all across the south to be dwarfed by the media banging on about 'a record night for Reform' with a smiling Farage on the cover photo, regardless of whether or not they took more councils than the LDs off of the Tories (in part because the big story may well be them winning Runcorn). Possibly biggest outcome of this will be Badenoch's hold weakening.

obviously far too many of my shows in that lower rank but I expected that - I'm rewatching/going through Attack On Titan with Jacob right now and he's loving it (plus I'm remembering just how many GREATEST TV MOMENT OF ALL TIME™ moments it has so if I was doing it now I might rank it higher than I did but that's a given, rankings like this are so transient in time). Also all the anime shows I voted for are all very worth it (and AWW at The Expanse just falling short). Avatar: The Last Airbender, the 2005 show is an honestly perfect story of a hero's journey TV show beginning to end, so well-paced, and all future adaptations of it are taboo, 'may your favourite animated show get a Netflix adaptation' is as ever a curse. Looking forward to the day they try ultimate blasphemy with Pokemon (though I haven't heard too much heresy about the Detective Pikachu film, never watched it though). Severance is a name I am keeping an eye on with interest but not started yet, I'm sure I will love it based on what little I have heard about it. Looking forward to seeing which consensus shows further up the rankings I'm into.