Just to tie up the loose end of the Clinton email story resurgence, the FBI have now confirmed that their verdict is unchanged from when they originally closed the investigation earlier in the year. So as expected, it was all a gigantic BS waste of time. :)

well of course it was, it's so obvious they were trying to get people on the fence to go towards Trump by trying to make Hillary look bad. -_-

I've gone 279-259. Think she'll edge Nevada and New Hampshire, being a pessimist on North Carolina and Florida.

I'm going to go for 304-234, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Ohio edging to Trump but very little else.

 

On predictions of a whim for the election night, which is only slightly less solid than that state call, I'm going to predict that a couple of battlegrounds/unexpected places will go Trump comparatively early but not enough that we worry or that it comes close to actually happening. I think I'll be staying up but I'm not certain I'll last it all.

If only the FBI had concluded on Friday - it may have given the story enough time to penetrate and reset the race back to where it was after the debates.

 

I still think there's a really good chance of a big polling error in Clinton's favour, given the number of undecideds and how many under-the-bonnet polling metrics point to voters thinking Clinton more suited to the presidency than Trump (in the same way as polling in the UK found a consistent preference for Cameron as PM and the Tories on the economy last year, despite the two parties being tied in the polls). If it happens I think 378-154-6 is probably the limit.

What states would you give her in that scenario Tirren? Arizona, Georgia, Iowa and Alaska?

 

I think a polling error, if there is indeed to be one, will probably be more likely to favour her given the tendency for hispanic voters to be NPA and also seemingly very difficult to poll. Indeed just that the fact they are hard to poll/have a low voting propensity means most LV screens cut them out and so the polls simply don't reflect the race.

What states would you give her in that scenario Tirren? Arizona, Georgia, Iowa and Alaska?

Yep, and McMullin (or who knows, maybe Hillary! When it's that nip and tuck between all three anything can go down) Utah. South Carolina and Missouri seem maybe a stretch too far, which is a shame because I think losing states like those really would've sent a shockwave through the Republicans that a platform like this will never be acceptable again. Living in hope my most optimistic scenario plays out anyway, because I think Alaska and Georgia going could have the same effect.

I'd like to think Texas would be in play in a scenario like that too, perhaps not QUITE ending up blue, but if Missouri/SC are close there's no reason it wouldn't be given she's polling (slightly) better there and the high hispanic population.

 

It's nice to dream, even in these DARK DAYS

Just to tie up the loose end of the Clinton email story resurgence, the FBI have now confirmed that their verdict is unchanged from when they originally closed the investigation earlier in the year. So as expected, it was all a gigantic BS waste of time. :)

 

Well I think thats the Hillary victory almost certain now. :)

 

I'd like to think Texas would be in play in a scenario like that too, perhaps not QUITE ending up blue, but if Missouri/SC are close there's no reason it wouldn't be given she's polling (slightly) better there and the high hispanic population.

 

It's nice to dream, even in these DARK DAYS

One of the more interesting aspects of the last stretch of this election has been looking at the map and thinking about which parts of the map might turn blue, or at the very least show signs of doing so. I think we're heading into a future where Republicans begin to really struggle to hold areas that were once guaranteed for them and their adaptation is going to be slower than it needs to be. I'm really looking forward to seeing what sort of state the map is in come 2024, and even just 2020 honestly.

I think it will be the first election Ohio doesn't vote for the winner. Ohio, Nevada and Arizona for Trump, rest of swing states including Florida for Hillary, Hillary wins.

One of the more interesting aspects of the last stretch of this election has been looking at the map and thinking about which parts of the map might turn blue, or at the very least show signs of doing so. I think we're heading into a future where Republicans begin to really struggle to hold areas that were once guaranteed for them and their adaptation is going to be slower than it needs to be. I'm really looking forward to seeing what sort of state the map is in come 2024, and even just 2020 honestly.

Texas turning into a purple state would be massive.

 

I'm not gonna think further ahead until Wednesday morning tho eek.

So we are preducting a massive rout for Trump then and perhaps no swing states at all.

I have Clinton winning 272-266, with Trump flipping Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Clinton very narrowly holding onto Florida and New Hampshire for the win (though with the margins close enough in those states for Trump and some of his more demented followers to whine about rigging forevermore).

 

In some ways, the reported big increase in Latino turnout is a worry for the Democrats -- it helps them in a couple of swing states like Nevada and Florida, but generally, most of those extra Latino votes are going to be "wasted" in Texas and California, which doesn't help her at all with the Electoral College.

Edited November 7, 20168 yr by Danny

I am not forecasting anything at the moment, but I doubt Clinton can carry Colorado at this moment, she failed the win the primary there and now draw even with Trump in polls.

I have Clinton winning 272-266, with Drumpf flipping Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Clinton very narrowly holding onto Florida and New Hampshire for the win (though with the margins close enough in those states for Drumpf and some of his more demented followers to whine about rigging forevermore).

 

In some ways, the reported big increase in Latino turnout is a worry for the Democrats -- it helps them in a couple of swing states like Nevada and Florida, but generally, most of those extra Latino votes are going to be "wasted" in Texas and California, which doesn't help her at all with the Electoral College.

That is true, although it should bag her Nevada and possibly Florida. And it puts Texas in play for next time, which long term is great (assuming she doesn't lose the election this time).

I am not forecasting anything at the moment, but I doubt Clinton can carry Colorado at this moment, she failed the win the primary there and now draw even with Trump in polls.

 

It seems the western swing states are Trump's and the eastern ones are Hillary's.

 

I have Clinton winning 272-266, with Trump flipping Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Clinton very narrowly holding onto Florida and New Hampshire for the win (though with the margins close enough in those states for Trump and some of his more demented followers to whine about rigging forevermore).

 

In some ways, the reported big increase in Latino turnout is a worry for the Democrats -- it helps them in a couple of swing states like Nevada and Florida, but generally, most of those extra Latino votes are going to be "wasted" in Texas and California, which doesn't help her at all with the Electoral College.

I'd be surprised if Trump took Penn. I know the West of the state is very much trumpvana but the Philadelphia metro area should ensure it swings Clinton. AFAIK Clinton hasn't been behind Trump in a single poll there

Even Kellyanne Conway admitted their internals had them down 4 in PA. It will be closer than the last couple of elections, but Kerry only won by 2.5% in 2004 so it's not like Dems have always had a lock on a big margin there. A win is a win, even if it's the state most likely to be hit with claims of ''RIGGERS''.

 

I'd be more worried about him picking off Michigan. His best polling results (in R skewing polls) have him tied there, but it's a tough one to poll, not least in the primaries this season, so if there's going to be an upset I'd wager it will be there and not PA.

I'd like to think Texas would be in play in a scenario like that too, perhaps not QUITE ending up blue, but if Missouri/SC are close there's no reason it wouldn't be given she's polling (slightly) better there and the high hispanic population.

 

It's nice to dream, even in these DARK DAYS

I'm a little more wary on Texas given we're talking huge absolute numbers of voters shifting to potentially switch the state, compared with MO/SC (which I don't think are close, but are probably a leap too far this time around in the event of a polling error).

 

In the long run I think we could end up seeing a solid coast as a Democratic firewall. Texas has been a Democratic dream for ages, but after Arizona and Georgia have been converted South Carolina and Mississippi will be pretty big prizes too. Those 42 EVs would pretty much even out Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania leaving the Democratic column. Throw in Texas too and the Democrats could pretty much lose the whole Midwest and not have to worry.