Kinda surprised we don't already have a thread about this unless I'm just blind.

 

But the situation in Ukraine has changed quite a lot the past few days - very quickly developing from a promising power-sharing deal to Yanukovych being impeached (and comparing this to the Nazis' rise to power as you do). Was removing him from power a good idea or is it just going to push the country even closer to civil war? I'll leave any answering of this to people who are more intelligent than me but this seems like quite a big deal so was just surprised at it not really being mentioned in here.

*.* at the return of Tymoshenko.

 

I genuinely would not be surprised if Russia invaded Ukraine if this all goes wrong. I'm seriously hoping it doesn't happen, but after Syria last year, they've seen that America blinks and that public opinion in the West is far too 'let somebody else deal with it' these days for there to be any real threat of them being stopped - and Ukraine's pretty much the centre of the battle for Russian influence currently (they've already basically won in Syria). I don't think it'll come to it, but Putin's so emboldened at the moment he could quite easily get away with it. And then all of a sudden we're back thirty years.

*.* at the return of Tymoshenko.

 

I genuinely would not be surprised if Russia invaded Ukraine if this all goes wrong. I'm seriously hoping it doesn't happen, but after Syria last year, they've seen that America blinks and that public opinion in the West is far too 'let somebody else deal with it' these days for there to be any real threat of them being stopped - and Ukraine's pretty much the centre of the battle for Russian influence currently (they've already basically won in Syria). I don't think it'll come to it, but Putin's so emboldened at the moment he could quite easily get away with it. And then all of a sudden we're back thirty years.

 

That's a HUGE misrepresentation of why people thought intervening in Syria was a bad idea...that was because randomly dropping bombs and killing innocent Syrians never made any sense at all, and because it seemed like both sides in that were as bad as each other. If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would be pretty clear who was in the wrong...

 

That's not to say the Ukraine situation is completely clear-cut either because, from what I've read, there were a lot of Ukrainians who really did support Yanukovych. Someone was suggesting on Newsnight the other day that the country might end up splitting in two, with the western part being pro-West/EU and the eastern part being pro-Russia.

That's a HUGE misrepresentation of why people thought intervening in Syria was a bad idea...that was because randomly dropping bombs and killing innocent Syrians never made any sense at all, and because it seemed like both sides in that were as bad as each other. If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would be pretty clear who was in the wrong...

 

That's not to say the Ukraine situation is completely clear-cut either because, from what I've read, there were a lot of Ukrainians who really did support Yanukovych. Someone was suggesting on Newsnight the other day that the country might end up splitting in two, with the western part being pro-West/EU and the eastern part being pro-Russia.

I'm not saying it was (all) of the public's view on not intervening, but I'm near certain even the most clear-cut cases would still have public opinion strongly anti-intervention. There's far more of a 'it's none of our business' view on ANY proper intervention these days.

I've always found Ukraine just really fascinating but it's such a mess. As long as there is ethnic and cultural division across the country with Russia breathing down their neck then I can't see it progressing that quickly. It's far too fragmented and far too corrupt. I remember how it all kicked off in 2004 when Yushchenko was poisoned and how the public had successfully nullified a fraudulent election. Yushchenko turned out to be a bit of a dickhead and it all went downhill from then on. Tymoshenko, even with all her faults, is such a great politician. I think her main problem was just the sheer amount of corruption embedded in Ukraine and Russia constantly being a pain in the arse. I really hope that her bloc can get back into power come May (?) and really give it another go because I think Ukraine as a nation really needs to go in the right direction (i.e. not Russia). Would she be likely to team up with Klitschko? I don't know much about his party other than they're pretty much pro-EU and anti-Russia, but will he just be another Yushchenko?

WELL. I've been following the Ukrainian situation quite closely for obvious reasons, so I'd like to put a summary of my opinions in paragraphs.

 

Firstly, I'm happy that no one is going to die anymore, that is the most important factor. I was going to visit Kiev in 2 weeks and now I'm delaying my trip until April, hopefully everything will be completely fine by then.

 

Secondly, don't forget that Yanukovich was a legitly elected President and he won over Timoshenko in 2010.

 

Thirdly, Timoshenko is clearly going to be the next President, and she is going to be a satisfying President for both sides, West and East. Yes, East included, as don't forget why she got to jail. She got to jail because Yanukovich etc. didn't like the signed agreement between Putin and Timoshenko when she was a Prime Minister about the oil prices and Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.

 

Fourthly - yes, exactly, Ukraine is like 2 different countries. The Western Part leans towards Poland and EU in general, and the Eastern Part - towards Russia. The Crimea Republic is basically Russia in terms of historical relationships, it WAS a part of Russia (Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic back then) until 1954 when it was given away to Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. No wonder the citizen are pro-Russian there.

 

Fifthly - I'm quite bothered that the history is going to be rewritten. Yanukovich and his "team" should be judged and maybe even got to jail, he showed himself as a complete c**t with the criminal behaviour. He balanced between being a Putin puppet and a EU puppet. Well, there couldn't be any balance like that, and the result is the one that we all now see. However, I'm pretty sure that the nazis from opposition who killed the governmental police forces, burned houses and destroyed monuments (wtf?!) aren't going to be judged at all and might even be treated as heroes. It can't be like that, the law should be the same for everyone.

 

6. I fear that the Russian population in Ukraine is going to be treated badly again, like it was in Yushchenko times. Russians contain for almost 20% of the whole Ukranian population, Russian language is commonly used (in amounts of about 40% of the whole usage) but in Yushchenko times it wasn't even an official language. Compare that to Europe when FAR less used language become official and think what is going to happen when Ukranian nationalists get enough power.

 

And finally, I think Putin and his band behave like complete idiots and c**ts. They thought that if you give enough money you are going to be loved. They thought that if Yanukovich would use power or wait enough (both tactics were implied) it would be fine. And Russian anti-Ukranian propaganda was mentally painful to watch, how many lies were thrown in there. That anti-Ukranian propaganda in Russia played quite a bit role in Ukraine too, because Russian TV is quite common there. And when you watch what is happening in Kiev by your eyes and then turn on Russian TV where you are called a fascist or just that you were paid to go to Maidan - you will definitely turn that TV off. That 15 billions of dollars that were offered by Russia, 3 of them were already sent - this is also a complete mess. I demand my money, which I didn't agree to give to another country, back. All in all, it is a total diplomatic disaster for Putin but obviously he isn't going to be answered for that.

I dunno enough about the situation in Ukraine to have a proper opinion but Klitchsko? great boxer but what political experience does he have! none far as i know, just seems to be a guy who was a national hero who fancies dabbling with politics, having him as leader of Ukraine would be as barmy as making David Beckham PM here

I dunno enough about the situation in Ukraine to have a proper opinion but Klitchsko? great boxer but what political experience does he have! none far as i know, just seems to be a guy who was a national hero who fancies dabbling with politics, having him as leader of Ukraine would be as barmy as making David Beckham PM here

He's an MP with a PhD. Would it kill you to actually google basic facts?

He's an MP with a PhD. Would it kill you to actually google basic facts?

 

Wow :o boxers have in general not been the sharpest tools in the box, assumed he was just another one, had never googled him

Wow :o boxers have in general not been the sharpest tools in the box, assumed he was just another one, had never googled him

Which should be another warning against the dangers of jumping to conclusions based on stereotypes but I feel that lesson will be forever lost on you.

I genuinely would not be surprised if Russia invaded Ukraine if this all goes wrong. I'm seriously hoping it doesn't happen, but after Syria last year, they've seen that America blinks and that public opinion in the West is far too 'let somebody else deal with it' these days for there to be any real threat of them being stopped - and Ukraine's pretty much the centre of the battle for Russian influence currently (they've already basically won in Syria). I don't think it'll come to it, but Putin's so emboldened at the moment he could quite easily get away with it. And then all of a sudden we're back thirty years.

Ah crap.

It's actually going to happen isn't it? Russia is in Crimea right now and at the borders of Ukraine

I seriously hope we're careful but trying to balance that with not burying our heads in the sand. Vague, I know.

It pains me so much to say this, but this really does make a total mockery of Obama and Hillary's 'reset' approach with Russia. They gave an inch and Putin took a mile.

I really hope the EU/US/NATO's tough rhetoric is actually backed up with action. Millions of Ukrainians are fighting for their rights and to become part of the EU and I honestly believe the EU should stand shoulder to shoulder with them and give Ukraine the support it needs to maintain it's territorial integrity.

 

If I understand it correctly, the 1994 agreement requires the UK and US to act if Russia breaches Ukraine's territorial integrity and I hope we do.

 

They've fought to be a part of a great institution and the incredible benefits that being part of the EU brings, for us to do nothing would destroy our reputation in Ukraine, imply that all they fought for was for nothing and let Russia exert more influence over the key state in the rest of the former-USSR bloc. Russia would be bulletproof.

 

Even CHINA isn't claiming Russia's actions!

I really hope the EU/US/NATO's tough rhetoric is actually backed up with action. Millions of Ukrainians are fighting for their rights and to become part of the EU and I honestly believe the EU should stand shoulder to shoulder with them and give Ukraine the support it needs to maintain it's territorial integrity.

 

If I understand it correctly, the 1994 agreement requires the UK and US to act if Russia breaches Ukraine's territorial integrity and I hope we do.

 

They've fought to be a part of a great institution and the incredible benefits that being part of the EU brings, for us to do nothing would destroy our reputation in Ukraine, imply that all they fought for was for nothing and let Russia exert more influence over the key state in the rest of the former-USSR bloc. Russia would be bulletproof.

 

Even CHINA isn't claiming Russia's actions!

 

But it's not all Ukrainians though. It's very clear at this point that the consensus in the Crimea is that they deeply disapprove of the revolution, and (rightly or wrongly) think the people who are taking charge are going to repress their rights.

 

Probably the best way forward is for Crimea to have a referendum on whether they want to stay part of Ukraine. Just making a knee-jerk assumption that Russia must be on the wrong side because we traditionally dislike them, which seems to be what the Western governments are doing, is not very productive.

But it's not all Ukrainians though. It's very clear at this point that the consensus in the Crimea is that they deeply disapprove of the revolution, and (rightly or wrongly) think the people who are taking charge are going to repress their rights.

 

Probably the best way forward is for Crimea to have a referendum on whether they want to stay part of Ukraine. Just making a knee-jerk assumption that Russia must be on the wrong side because we traditionally dislike them, which seems to be what the Western governments are doing, is not very productive.

Until 1954 Crimea was part of Russia. Then it got transferred to Ukraine. As a result, a lot of the population of Crimea are ethnic Russians and speak Russian as their first language. There have been moves in the last few days towards having a referendum on the same day as the proposed presidential election in May.

If Putin believed in anything as subtle as a referendum then I'd be all for it.

Russia are invading Ukrainian territory on the basis of a government change they dislike with very little evidence that it would result in repression. That isn't just making a knee-jerk assumption that they're in the wrong.

Russia are invading Ukrainian territory on the basis of a government change they dislike with very little evidence that it would result in repression. That isn't just making a knee-jerk assumption that they're in the wrong.

 

..precisely, and what's worse is that Putin is using the distraction of ' the need to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine' as justification.

 

Russia won't stop until Yanukovych is back in charge - or some other puppet that they can easily manipulate.