They do, however, also have Amber Rudd being unseated in Hastings so I have reason to doubt a lot of the substance of that projection.

It would be good though :D

I don't think Rudd will lose Hastings but it's not going to be easy for her. I think her majority will be halved.

We're likely Labour here in Plym :D Not a surprise given it was a tiny majority and the guy has been investigate for fraud with the verdict due on election day :lol: Much of Bristol looking Labour too, except Thornbury where I used to live and Kingswood which is the constiuency I'm under now :')

(oh wait Filton is a constiuency too and they lean Conservative, so basically the Bristol Council half of Bristol is good but the South Glos half can leave x)

 

Also, while it won't happen that she'll lose her seat, Rudd at least being knocked down a peg or two will be good enough for me, her being a Portillo would be hilare though.

I don't think Rudd will lose Hastings but it's not going to be easy for her. I think her majority will be halved.

YouGov are also saying that Labour will gain Hove comfortably. I've assumed all along that Labour will win there but not necessarily by very much. If they think Hove is in the bag, they may move some people into Hastings for the last couple days.

I don't think Rudd will lose Hastings but it's not going to be easy for her. I think her majority will be halved.

Are we going to talk about that hustings video lol

 

Anyway, Scotland:

Tories: 5 (3 border seats, North Perthshire, West Aberdeenshire)

Lib Dems: 2 (Orkney + Edinburgh West but not East Dunbartonshire or North East Fife)

Labour: 1 (Edinburgh South, failing on East Lothian and Edinburgh North)

SNP 51

 

The Tory prediction is completely plausible but quite hopeful, especially for Moray. If Labour really have given up on Renfrewshire East or the Corbyn momentum^TM isn't strong enough here then I could see the Tories getting it, but otherwise I think the SNP could hold. Either way, they're going to get very sizeable voteshares that will set them up well for the future.

 

England and Wales are too big and I have no idea.

Are we going to talk about that hustings video lol

 

I was thinking about this. Quite scary stuff but it seems to not be getting reported anywhere (although I'm sure it's big news where it matters on a local level).

I was thinking about this. Quite scary stuff but it seems to not be getting reported anywhere (although I'm sure it's big news where it matters on a local level).

 

Also is this not your constituency hehe

YouGov are also saying that Labour will gain Hove comfortably. I've assumed all along that Labour will win there but not necessarily by very much. If they think Hove is in the bag, they may move some people into Hastings for the last couple days.

 

Labour's victory in Hove will probably have something to do with the Conservative's candidate there being mad as a box of frogs. She's a charismatic evangelical who believes that she literally healed a man of his deafness by touching him, something that even a miracle-believing Catholic like myself finds a bit bollox-y.

 

Also is this not your constituency hehe

 

It USED to be, I've escaped down to Truro thankfully. My mum absolutely LOATHES her and was getting outraged over that on FB last night.

 

Beggars' belief that she's currently in the safest seat in Cornwall.

Are we going to talk about that hustings video lol

 

Anyway, Scotland:

Tories: 5 (3 border seats, North Perthshire, West Aberdeenshire)

Lib Dems: 2 (Orkney + Edinburgh West but not East Dunbartonshire or North East Fife)

Labour: 1 (Edinburgh South, failing on East Lothian and Edinburgh North)

SNP 51

 

The Tory prediction is completely plausible but quite hopeful, especially for Moray. If Labour really have given up on Renfrewshire East or the Corbyn momentum^TM isn't strong enough here then I could see the Tories getting it, but otherwise I think the SNP could hold. Either way, they're going to get very sizeable voteshares that will set them up well for the future.

 

England and Wales are too big and I have no idea.

According to the private polling done by whoever it is (mandelson? Archer? Somef***er) the SNP look to retain NEFife by 7pts over Tories with the LibDem down to just 20% in third. That'd be huge if true. They won there just last year!

YouGov are also saying that Labour will gain Hove comfortably. I've assumed all along that Labour will win there but not necessarily by very much. If they think Hove is in the bag, they may move some people into Hastings for the last couple days.

 

Actually they already have Hove, Brighton Kemptown is the one they don't have down in that hippy enclave on the Sussex coast and, I presume, they've got a good chance since the Greens aren't standing there and they got about 7% last time so they've got a good chance of taking it. Hove is probably on a knife edge but being Remainy enough and the fact that the Tory candidate there has links to this "Gay Cure" church (of all the places to be running a candidate with that attached to your name) probably means Labour should be able to hold Hove against the tide.

 

Hastings is an interesting one, it's theoretically a marginal and a lot of it is very much "people who were priced out of/aren't quite 'out there' enough for Brighton" but if Labour are going to be doing well there then that probably means they're really pushing the Conservatives in a lot of other places too.

Labour's victory in Hove will probably have something to do with the Conservative's candidate there being mad as a box of frogs. She's a charismatic evangelical who believes that she literally healed a man of his deafness by touching him, something that even a miracle-believing Catholic like myself finds a bit bollox-y.

She's also done a lot to upset gay voters, not a sensible thing to do in a seat like Hove.

Actually they already have Hove, Brighton Kemptown is the one they don't have down in that hippy enclave on the Sussex coast and, I presume, they've got a good chance since the Greens aren't standing there and they got about 7% last time so they've got a good chance of taking it. Hove is probably on a knife edge but being Remainy enough and the fact that the Tory candidate there has links to this "Gay Cure" church (of all the places to be running a candidate with that attached to your name) probably means Labour should be able to hold Hove against the tide.

 

Hastings is an interesting one, it's theoretically a marginal and a lot of it is very much "people who were priced out of/aren't quite 'out there' enough for Brighton" but if Labour are going to be doing well there then that probably means they're really pushing the Conservatives in a lot of other places too.

Oops yes, my mistake. I suspect Labour will win Kemptown as well. I'm old enough to remember when Brighton and Hove were as true blue as the rest of Sussex so this is quite a change :lol:

Anyway, Scotland:

Tories: 5 (3 border seats, North Perthshire, West Aberdeenshire)

Scotland has changed the outcome of UK elections just once in the last forty years (when it denied the Tories a majority outright in 2010). A major argument for independence, and one I'm completely on board with, is that it has consistently voted against the Tories during this period but, owing to this lack of influence, has often been subjected to them. IMAGINE if these Tories gains in Scotland secured the Tories a very slim majority across the whole of the UK. I would have so many mixed feelings on Friday.

 

In reality the Tories probably don't need any Scottish support to get their majority as it will be a lot more clear cut than certain polls/'forecast models' are teasing, which itself provokes mixed feelings~~

I was thinking about this. Quite scary stuff but it seems to not be getting reported anywhere (although I'm sure it's big news where it matters on a local level).

It's just another Tory gaffe

 

Michael Fallon has slammed comments alleged to be justifying terrorism, only to be told they were made by Boris Johnson.

The same Michael Fallon has said there would be no tax rises for top earners and then been contradicted by May.

Boris Johnson has come close to getting into fights with opponents.

Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, couldn't say how much HS2 was going to cost.

Theresa May hasn't answered a single question she hasn't written herself.

May has sent substitutes to various debates to fail to answer questions on her behalf.

Another minister, Karen Bradley, refused to answer a question on whether police numbers have been cut.

Theresa May forgot where she was in a speech and had to refer to "this town".

 

 

None of these have featured prominently, but people are still going on about Dianne Abbot's hapless interview about the cost of increasing police numbers.

YouGov are also saying that Labour will gain Hove comfortably. I've assumed all along that Labour will win there but not necessarily by very much. If they think Hove is in the bag, they may move some people into Hastings for the last couple days.

 

I assume you mean to campaign, rather than sneak in some extra voters... :P

Just realised I haven't actually posted a prediction myself.

 

Despite the polls, I expect the Tories to increase their majority - they seem to be doing slightly better in the pre-election polls than in 2015...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polli..._election,_2015

 

Their average lead over the last few days has been 6%, which compares to about 2% at the end of the 2015 campaign. Also, if the polls are underestimating Tory support, as they have tended to do in recent elections, the real gep may be as much as 10%. :unsure:

 

I predict a Tory majority of ~50 seats, with a +/- 20 margin of error.

 

******************

 

On a side issue, do you think the right-leaning newspapers are deliberately making big headlines of the closest polls, in order to make sure the Tory vote doesn't get complacent?

On a side issue, do you think the right-leaning newspapers are deliberately making big headlines of the closest polls, in order to make sure the Tory vote doesn't get complacent?

 

I'm certainly of the opinion that the closer the opinion polls get, the less complacent that the Tory voters will get, as well as those on-the-fence regarding the Conservatives but still very anti-Corbyn. As to whether this is deliberately being pushed by the right-leaning media, I'm not entirely sure.

I made a thing

 

Basically that's details (for South England at least) on my revised prediction (which is actually just one above my original majority prediction in this thread funnily enough, honestly did not plan it like that), now I've had a brief glance at every seat, of:

 

Conservatives: 351

Labour: 215

LD: 13

SNP: 45

Others: 26

 

I tried to talk about every seat but quickly realised that'd be crazy so I stopped that somewhere around the Midlands when I realised I knew so few details about anything further north than Swindon that I should just make predictions. I have a few outlandish individual things in there like Nuttall winning (reasoning: 50% a guess that anti-Tory and Leave votes will unite around HIM there, 50% by the time I got to Lincolnshire I was slightly bored) but the overall numbers are close to what I'm currently feeling will be the case, which is I'm feeling the slight Tory majority for sure but it'll be mostly small changes.

Certainly makes for interesting reading Iz!

 

The Britain Elects nowcast has been showing what I've been feeling is the most accurate reading of the vibe of the campaign so far - a modestly strong Tory majority - down to the seat-by-seat projections (although it's going so far as to say that Labour can get back up to three in Scotland now with Edinburgh North & Leith and East Renfrewshire - interpret as you will!).