Arsenal vs Liverpool has the potential to be one of the best matches of the season. There's bound to be goals in this match because both sides have a good attack but are leaky at the back!

Expected Goals is a measure of trying to measure the quality of chance that's created, rather than just shots on target. I'm a big fan of it as a stat, obviously there are limitations to it and it can't take into account the relative quality of the player shooting and the goalkeeper. It does seem to wind people up, Jeff Stelling went on a rant about it the other week saying it was the most pointless stat ever, but I think it has a bad name, and that chance quality or something like that would be better. How many times do you hear people say "he should've scored that" or similar, it's just a way of trying to quantify that, and is certainly a much better way of looking at it that simply shots/shots on target.

 

I remember reading something about half way through last season around West Brom massively outperforming their xG and it wasn't likely to be sustainable, safe to say they've regressed to the mean since then.

 

Reading are a good case too, last season they got into the play-offs but every statistical model had them as a mid-table side who were outperforming where they should be. This season, they've regressed to where they 'should' be.

 

This is a useful starter on xG from Opta (the video): http://www.optasports.com/news-area/news-expected-goals.aspx

 

I really enjoyed this about Burnley too, who have exceeded their xG scoring and conceded since they've arrived in the Premier League. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/25/sports/s...ier-league.html

 

Belated thanks for that Mark!

 

Arsenal vs Liverpool has the potential to be one of the best matches of the season. There's bound to be goals in this match because both sides have a good attack but are leaky at the back!

 

I think both sides will score - but Liverpool's defence has not been leaky at all recently since the tactical shift, quite the opposite.

Expect a 0-0 then lol

Truly incredible game at the Emirates right now! Match of the season for sure!

Edited December 22, 20177 yr by Houdini

Arsenal vs Liverpool has the potential to be one of the best matches of the season. There's bound to be goals in this match because both sides have a good attack but are leaky at the back!

Already yes at 3-3. What a game.

It's terrible if your a Liverpool fan lol

 

Woulda taken that at the start!

Both keepers had a utter howler of a moment! Fairly entertaining match to watch.

Neville ripped Mings apart!

Neville ripped Mings apart!

 

Cech's mistake was far worse - great game but highlighted some errors from Liverpool. As soon as we sign a player to replace Can and control the midfield we won't be too far behind Man City that's for sure.

 

Let's hope so and a new keeper please!

Let's hope so and a new keeper please!

 

Agreed we need a new keeper though - yesterday we conceded 4 shots on target with 3 goals. Go back a month and Man Utd conceded something ridiculous like 14 shots on target. That's a huge difference at this level. We have the right tactics, we just don't have the right personnel at this moment in time.

Mignolet is a joke. Liverpool's defense always falls apart the moment they concede because they're all so nervous about what happens if Mignolet has to make a save. Invest some of the Coutinho cash next summer in an actual world-class keeper and this will happen far less often.

 

Amazing match though :D pure drama! The 3 goals in 5 minutes from us were absolutely impeccable. Would've liked the (undeserved) win but happy with the draw.

Edited December 23, 20177 yr by jark

Mignolet is a joke. Liverpool's defense always falls apart the moment they concede because they're all so nervous about what happens if Mignolet has to make a save. Invest some of the Coutinho cash next summer in an actual world-class keeper and this will happen far less often.

 

Amazing match though :D pure drama! The 3 goals in 5 minutes from us were absolutely impeccable. Would've liked the (undeserved) win but happy with the draw.

 

Our problem is that we are too arrogant sometimes, there has only been one game this season where we have not been the better team (discounting the Man City game) and that was against Spurs. We just don't have the right personnel to deal with in-game management, especially in the away games when the crowd get on top. We concede way too many goals from shots on target, when in reality we barely concede that many chances so the ratio is disproportionate. Frustrating, but the game yesterday was great. Arsenal don't lose too many at the Emirates and always score, but it would have been nice to put some distance on them.

Who should we buy then?

Barrell of laughs today:

 

- Harry Kane scores in 2s and 3s

- Swansea are rivaling Derby for the worst ever Premier League team

- Jose Mourinho still thinks he has not spent enough money!

Jose Mourinho will be gone at the end of the season. His attitude stinks. If we're being realistic, Man Utd have made fantastic progress up the table - Man City have just been so ridiculously good it pales in comparison. Instead of being realistic, Jose throws his toys out of the pram and is incredibly disrespectful not only to other teams and their fans, but his own players.

 

As a Chelsea fan, I'm content with our league progress this year despite the fact we're blatantly obviously conceding the title to City. I think we have a good shot at 2nd.

 

I see Man Utd capitulating now as I think Jose has lost the dressing room. We know what happened last time...

 

Jose to PSG in the summer anyone? Wonder what the odds are...

Edited December 26, 20177 yr by Lenny

As far as PL football goes for this season, I am pretty much done*. The league is over, not interested a jot in the top 4 battle (we're most likely gonna miss out the shite we've been playing recently) and my second team (Swansea) are absolutely doomed. To compound the misery my fantasy teams have all gone to pot these past few weeks. I don't even watch MOTD anymore which is a first!

 

Roll on the Champions League in Feb, that's the only bit of interest in this season left :lol:

 

*I will still partake in the Predictions contest though, gotta defend something!

Jose Mourinho will be gone at the end of the season. His attitude stinks. If we're being realistic, Man Utd have made fantastic progress up the table - Man City have just been so ridiculously good it pales in comparison. Instead of being realistic, Jose throws his toys out of the pram and is incredibly disrespectful not only to other teams and their fans, but his own players.

 

As a Chelsea fan, I'm content with our league progress this year despite the fact we're blatantly obviously conceding the title to City. I think we have a good shot at 2nd.

 

I see Man Utd capitulating now as I think Jose has lost the dressing room. We know what happened last time...

 

Jose to PSG in the summer anyone? Wonder what the odds are...

 

I don't think he has lost the dressing room yet and I can't see them capitulating, but there are clear signs he is starting to crack. The players they're being linked with I don't see taking off under Mourinho either, which makes me wonder what is going on behind the scenes. They key now will be to keep the team motivated in the league as they are in real (and highly likely) danger of being dragged in to the Top 4 race.

 

Yeah I was about to say that it's only a barrel of laughs if you're a Manchester City fan. This season's Premier League reminds me of when I used to play my old FIFA games on amateur difficulty as a little kid and I used to win every league match and was near 20 points clear of my nearest competitor by around Christmas/January in the virtual game time. I wont stop watching the Premier League altogether and I will keep watching Man United whenever I can but the fire that was there at the start of the season is gone now. It's only banter between rival fans that is at stake now when it comes to the top tier of the league.

 

I'm still happy with the progress we've made from last season though, it just happened to coincide with a freakish winning streak from City. Even Chelsea are in really good form now but it doesn't stand out much.

 

Of course knowing the media it wont be until March/April that teams at the bottom of the table will get pushed to the forefront because that's where the entertainment really is at the moment and on the last day of the season I think at least one of the relegation spots will be up for grabs.

Edited December 27, 20177 yr by Houdini