June 7, 20196 yr That byelection stat is certainly plausible. However, the lowest winning percentage I am aware of was Russell Johnston (Lib Dem) in Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber. He won with just 25% of the vote in 1992. The Tories came fourth with 22.6%, just 1,741 votes behind. I think there was one Northern Irish seat that was split 5 or 6 ways in 2015 which had a winner below 25%? (vaguely remembering this stat from a CGP Grey video)
June 7, 20196 yr I think there was one Northern Irish seat that was split 5 or 6 ways in 2015 which had a winner below 25%? (vaguely remembering this stat from a CGP Grey video) Ah yes, Belfast South. The winning candidate got a mere 24.5%/ That was partly because of the number of candidates (nine) and also the fact that six candidates saved their deposit (with over 5% of the vote) and a seventh came close to doing so. The gap between first and fourth was much larger than in Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber - a full 4,158 votes.
June 7, 20196 yr I've read that this was the lowest percentage for a winner of a by-election ever, with Labour, BXP and Tories all over 20% and Lib Dems also in double figures. Not quite, the Combined English Universities by-election of 1946 had a winner on just 30.0%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Combined...ies_by-election
June 21, 20196 yr Brecon and Radnorshire MP has been recalled so will now face a by-Election. Lib Dems should be very favoured to win the seat!
June 21, 20196 yr Brecon and Radnorshire voted Leave by 51-49%. Its population is above the national average which suggests that there is now a majority for Remain even if nobody has changed their mind. We now wait to see whether the Tories move the writ almost immediately for a July byelection or wait until the autumn.
June 21, 20196 yr Brecon's European Parliament vote in May: BXP: 30.7% LD: 23.4% PC: 20.4% CON: 7.9% GRN: 6.9% LAB: 6.0% UKIP: 2.7% CUK: 1.7%
June 21, 20196 yr It's between the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party - got a good chance that the Lib Dems will take it.
June 24, 20195 yr I’m going to predict a date of 25 July. It is rumoured that Labour will table a vote of confidence for that date, immediately after the election of a new Tory leader. The Tories will expect to lose the by-election, so won’t want it to happen before that date. In addition, if the by-election is on that date, all MPs will be expected to be at Westminster, not in Wales. The date is also the last date before the summer recess. Any new MP elected on that date would, therefore, be without a salary for several weeks as they don’t get paid until they are sworn in.
June 24, 20195 yr The Tories have chosen their candidate for the byelection in Brecon and Radnorshire. He is Chris Davies. Yes, they have chosen the man convicted of fiddling his expenses as their candidate. Labour supported the recall petition against their Peterborough MP even though her criminal offence was committed before she became an MP. The Tories have reselected someone whose criminal offence was directly related to his position as an MP. And they still like to call themselves the party of law and order.
June 24, 20195 yr The Brexit party is to launch a formal legal challenge against the result of this month’s Peterborough byelection, where it was narrowly beaten by Labour, claiming that allegations of corruption connected to postal votes need to be investigated. Nigel Farage said : “Actually, as far as I’m concerned, this is about a lot more than Peterborough. It is about a system that is wide open to corruption, to intimidation, to bribery, to abuse on a whole number of levels. I have mentioned this a number of times in the past.”
June 24, 20195 yr The Tories have chosen their candidate for the byelection in Brecon and Radnorshire. He is Chris Davies. Yes, they have chosen the man convicted of fiddling his expenses as their candidate. Labour supported the recall petition against their Peterborough MP even though her criminal offence was committed before she became an MP. The Tories have reselected someone whose criminal offence was directly related to his position as an MP. And they still like to call themselves the party of law and order. How is that even allowed? Could there not just immediately be another recall petition for him if he got back in?
June 24, 20195 yr The Brexit party is to launch a formal legal challenge against the result of this month’s Peterborough byelection, where it was narrowly beaten by Labour, claiming that allegations of corruption connected to postal votes need to be investigated. Nigel Farage said : “Actually, as far as I’m concerned, this is about a lot more than Peterborough. It is about a system that is wide open to corruption, to intimidation, to bribery, to abuse on a whole number of levels. I have mentioned this a number of times in the past.” Erm, has he forgotten about the numerous ways in which his Leave campaign broke the law? Of course, he is entitled to challenge the result if he has evidence that Labour broke the law. However, he can hardly complain if other people remind him of the fact that the reason the referendum result was not overturned was that an advisory referendum result cannot be overturned.
June 25, 20195 yr The Brexit party is to launch a formal legal challenge against the result of this month’s Peterborough byelection, where it was narrowly beaten by Labour, claiming that allegations of corruption connected to postal votes need to be investigated. Nigel Farage said : “Actually, as far as I’m concerned, this is about a lot more than Peterborough. It is about a system that is wide open to corruption, to intimidation, to bribery, to abuse on a whole number of levels. I have mentioned this a number of times in the past.” He should know, he's abused it many times. hypocrite. He's happy to accept corrupt electioneering results when it suits him (ie he wins). If he has evidence of corruption he should take it to the authorities not whine about it in the media without proof. We have proof there was corruption in the referendum, and in the recent May EU elections where large numbers of EU citizens were denied their voting rights. The EU has complained that they were turned away from voting centres because the UK gov had buggered up the processes cos they had left no time to do it properly and accurately sort the paperwork and voting lists. So let's talk about re-running THOSE results eh Nige?
July 6, 20195 yr Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Green Party will not be contesting the Brecon by-election. That leaves the Lib Dems flying the flag for Remain.
July 6, 20195 yr Author The Greens didn't run in 2017 and Plaid lost their deposit, so it's no real sacrifice on their part. The Lib Dems will be hoping that the Brexit Party cannibalise the Tory vote enough to get them in, so could be a close run thing.
July 6, 20195 yr Geeky fact alert - the Tories came third in this seat when defending it in a 1985 by-election. Could they manage to do so again?
July 13, 20195 yr My post should go in here, right? I guess a No Confidence-triggered election, two years into a cycle, is basically like a nationwide by-election, no? Not necessarily the relevant thread, but we can add Ken Clarke to this. 318 vs 315? 317 vs 316. Justine Greening more-or-less confirms that she's ready to vote No Confidence next week, calling out fellow opponents of No Deal such as Philip Hammond who will stop short of actually voting for the one thing that would be sure to disrupt BJ implementing it. Philip Lee hasn't yet joined the Lib Dems as rumoured, but he has retweeted this. I don't know what happens on October 31 if a no confidence vote only happens in September, as an election would fall around the current exit date. I don't think a confidence vote is planned for before the summer recess, but if it were, we'd have a lot more time.
July 13, 20195 yr I'm sure BJ would love his chance to fight a GE as leader, he can blame Remainers & the EU for his failure to carry out his promises (again) and also gives him an excuse to change his mind if it means staying as PM, assuming Tories win the Brexit votes and farage collapses. That's why he's trying to outdo Fatage in quotes What a glorious mess! Plus side, he could be the shortest-serving PM ever, in theory. Silver Linings.
July 14, 20195 yr It would be hilarious if Boris got elected leader only to be ousted by a general election less than 2 months later. Unfortunately, I don't think we'd be lucky enough to rid ourselves of the Tories and Boris so quickly :/
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