Latest OP for Wales:

 

YouGov poll of Wales, 22-25 November (changes since 31 October-4 November):

 

LAB: 38% (+9)

CON: 32% (+4)

PC: 11% (-1)

LD: 9% (-3)

BXP: 8% (-7)

GRN: 1% (-2)

 

How does the BBTory treat Labour in Wales? I also imagine the Tory press isn't as popular there?

 

Note- those results would actually give the Conservatives some gains in Wales. In 2017 GE Labour polled 49% in Wales, the highest since 2001.

 

Small bounce for Labour in the latest ICM poll. A long way to go yet however..

 

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 41% (-1)

LAB: 34% (+2)

LDEM: 13% (-)

BREX: 4% (-1)

 

via @ICMResearch, 22 - 25 Nov

Chgs. w/ 18 Nov

Note- those results would actually give the Conservatives some gains in Wales. In 2017 GE Labour polled 49% in Wales, the highest since 2001.

 

Small bounce for Labour in the latest ICM poll. A long way to go yet however..

 

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 41% (-1)

LAB: 34% (+2)

LDEM: 13% (-)

BREX: 4% (-1)

 

via @ICMResearch, 22 - 25 Nov

Chgs. w/ 18 Nov

 

It'll be interesting to see if other polls show something similar. The Conservatives need a double digit lead to guarentee a majority I believe? A 7% lead as shown above will mean it may be quite close as to whether they get one or not, especially considering how common tactical voting is likely to be.

 

I'm really interested to see just how many people in total have registered to vote. The deadline is tomorrow and we could be looking at a record-breaking day for voter registration.

I think that's the first poll for a while where the Tories have not had a double digit lead (half the polls have their lead in the high teens which would really be a disaster). I'm finding it very difficult to see past the Tories getting a majority in this election, just praying it won't end up being a ridiculous 400 seat rout...

 

(I was pretty much 100% certain there'd be a Tory majority last time as well to be fair but it just doesn't feel like Labour have the same energy behind them to pull off a repeat of 2017, for largely bullshit reasons but unfortunately that's the country we live in. Last election Labour consistently closed the gap in the polls throughout the campaigning whereas this time if anything the Tories' lead seems to be widening, mainly because of Farage's spinelessness but also because Labour are not managing to win back ex supporters who wavered to the Lib Dems like they did last time)

Which is much easier/ enjoyable to read than you dismissing the people who died in the floods as 'people milking it' and Common Sense laughing/ rolling their eyes at people accessing food banks.

 

Excuse me?! I never said any such things about flood victims! :(

 

Partially because the brexiteers have no one else to support and partial unionist tactical voting. They remain deeply hated in the populated parts of the country and popular in the North East with its high inward migration from England (yay oil)

 

I assume you meant '*heavily populated* areas, unless you think farm livestock are voting for the Tories... :heehee:

 

 

It'll be interesting to see if other polls show something similar. The Conservatives need a double digit lead to guarentee a majority I believe? A 7% lead as shown above will mean it may be quite close as to whether they get one or not, especially considering how common tactical voting is likely to be.

 

I think 5% would be enough for one.

Excuse me?! I never said any such things about flood victims! :(

 

You did; the comments were reported and removed

You did; the comments were reported and removed

 

No I did not! :angry:

From BBC Website:

 

'Huge increase' in voter registration, says campaign group

 

The Electoral Reform Society - a pressure group that wants a change in voting system for the UK - has analysed voter registration data in the period from the day the election was called (29 October) to midnight yesterday.

 

It says:

 

There have been 3,191,193 applications to register to vote in those 28 days, an average of 114,000 per day

 

That figure is 38% higher than the 2,315,893 applications to register in a similar period in the 2017 election, which equated to an average of 68,000 registrations per day

 

Of the applications made since the election was called in 2019, 2,125,064 applications (67% of the total) have been made by people aged 34 or under

Dr Jess Garland, director of policy and research at the Electoral Reform Society, says of the stats: “We’re seeing a major uplift in new registrations compared to the last election, with large numbers of young people signing up too - a traditionally under-registered demographic."

 

Just one caveat, an increase in applications is not firm evidence of an increase in the number of people able to vote - previous elections have seen voter registration applications from people who are already registered or who are below the voting age.

All the more reason to have automatic registration!

Another poll showing a slight narrowing and a nice jump for Labour.

 

Still think the Tories will snag a majority though, even if it's not a huge one.

 

CON: 43% (-2)

LAB: 32% (+5)

LDEM: 14% (-2)

GRN: 4% (+1)

BREX: 3% (+1)

 

via Kantar Public, 21 - 25 Nov

Chgs. w/ 18 Nov

I think that poll is just a reversion from the last one by Kantar being an outlier (their last three polls showed Tory leads of 10, 18 and 11 respectively).

Ah ok. I just saw it pop up on my Facebook and thought I would share :)

YouGov / Sky News

 

11 point Tory lead

 

C 43% (+1)

L 32% (+2)

LD 13% (-3)

BXP 4% (+1)

SNP 4 (-)

Green 2 (-2)

 

YouGov interviewed 1,678 GB adults on 25/26 Nov (comparisons with 21/22)

Thanks Chris, looks like the ICM last night was a bit of anomaly then with just a 7pt lead.

Lmao torygov, the poll that predicted 200 seat plus Tory majorities for Mad May and predicted massive mad may majorities up until the last day

Lmao torygov, the poll that preddicteds 200 seat plus Tory majorities for Mad May and predicted massive mad may majorities up until the last day

 

 

We'll see Michael. Looking forward to the exit poll as that was almost spot on last time.

 

Hope you'll be here then to discuss it calmly and nicely.

Edited November 26, 20195 yr by common sense

It'll be interesting to see if other polls show something similar. The Conservatives need a double digit lead to guarentee a majority I believe? A 7% lead as shown above will mean it may be quite close as to whether they get one or not, especially considering how common tactical voting is likely to be.

 

 

Yes according to experts they need at least a 10% lead for a certain majority. 7% to 9% and it's iffy and below 7% and it's most seats to Tories but hung parliament.

Multiple polls showing Labour gaining on the Conservatives - two weeks to go until the election still. If Labour can keep it up, we could be looking at further reductions in the Tory lead. The record-breaking voter registration could play a big part as well as a lot of the "don't know" people. I feel this election is going to be very close.

As I might have said before (correct me if I'm wrong (as if that would ever happen)), the Conservatives showing a consistantly strong lead could actually backfire on them, as if would have the dual effect of a) spurring on Labour activists to try harder to win over converts to their cause (even though I feel they are not very good at making sticky emotional appeals), and b) leading Tories to metaphorically take their foot off the pedal and not try as hard, as they feel that they've already done enough to secure the majority, and enough Tory voters might think it's not worth the effort voting as victory is already guaranteed.

 

Also, it's worth reflecting on how wrong I've been in predicting elections these past 5 years -

 

- In 2015 I thought Labour would be the biggest party and enter into coalition with Lib Dems: the Conservatives got a majority

- In 2016 I thought remain would win the referendum 52-48: Leave won by the same margin

- In 2016 I thought Hilary would win the Electoral College: Trump won

- In 2017 I thought the Tories would win a landslide: they lost their majority

- In 2019 I thought the Brexit Party would win the European Elections: actually, I got that one right, although I'd underestimated how big the Lib Dem bounce would be.

 

And now, given that I think that the Conservatives will win a comfortable majority, I can only conclude that this will mean that Labour will end up the biggest party (albeit not close enough for an overall majority).

I'm also terrible at calling these things, but given everything(even it's not the outcome I personally want) I would would say its certain that the Tories will be the largest party and likely that they will have enough seats to form a majority.