This is a very interesting Twitter thread which suggest this election is still very close and that the Tory vote is very overstated.

 

 

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1...678707288264709

I really just want this election to be done with now, give us the exit poll and let me know if I'm allowed to have any hope or not. x

I really just want this election to be done with now, give us the exit poll and let me know if I'm allowed to have any hope or not. x

 

Well who do you hope will win? Boris?

I really just want this election to be done with now, give us the exit poll and let me know if I'm allowed to have any hope or not. x

 

Well who do you hope will win? Boris?

Gonna go with no on that one.

I believe if I'm remembering correctly from 2017 and the ref, that Curtice tends to just support the sensible and expected answer. He wouldn't account for vote shifts not in the polls and if you repeat those words of his to those Labour voters he's talking about, they'll start to believe it's true. Intentionally or not, I view him as working for the status quo.

 

As with other BBC pundits, but I think he's listened to more because he's an academic, which isn't a guarantee of not having an agenda.

Bøtanikkä

Whoops sorry wrong thread.

 

But HA I WAS f***ING RIGHT!! They have a lead of 2.4% that can be WIPED OUT BY TACTICAL VOTING AND IS LESS THAN 2017!!! No government in history has increased its vote share the fourth time around.

Bøtanikkä

...has a much better prime minister than the UK.

Yikes

 

@1203826821361471500

Pfft. Tories have a 2% lead. There is no way Greens are switching to Tories.

Pfft. Tories have a 2% lead. There is no way Greens are switching to Tories.

 

 

That's only the opinion of one man Michael and not what all the polls say. Don't get your hopes up.

I think the final Survation poll in 2017 had the Tories only 1% ahead...so that is a bit worrying.

 

Oh well, perhaps the snow and rain will keep the Tory voters at home.

And Survation might be massively wrong this time. 2.4% lead. That's less than last time!

I am calling it.

 

308 seats for Tories.

 

Labour minority government with the SNP and Lib Dems resulting in a very watered-down Labour government.

Behind those figures there seems to be more admission of tactical voting, possible those Labour numbers going down are from respondents in seats where voting Labour doesn't make sense - yes on that data there's no movement that supports that but further in the poll you have 11% of Labour 2017 voters voting for the Lib Dems up from 4% and the main reason there has got to be tactical.

 

However:

The level of tactical voting and coordination required to accomplish the objectives of the remain minded majority in the UK would need to be significant to overcome the Conservative lead observed in today’s poll, should it be an accurate snapshot of public opinion.

 

Pretty grim either way but this should just make all Labour voters more determined to prove them wrong.

308 for the Tories.

 

I am still baffled that lib dem Joe fell for the polls. It was so obvious that Farage would collapse and his vote would go to the Tories. He has neeever won a seat at the election. Ever. She needs to go. They should replace her with um ANYONE ELSE!

I simply don't believe the polls. I'm looking forward to an upset, egg in the Tories' face.

 

Why don't you believe them? Is your *only* basis the 2017 result?

 

Whoops sorry wrong thread.

 

But HA I WAS f***ING RIGHT!! They have a lead of 2.4% that can be WIPED OUT BY TACTICAL VOTING AND IS LESS THAN 2017!!! No government in history has increased its vote share the fourth time around.

 

No poll has suggested anything like as close as 2.4%. The lowest I've seen is 6%

 

I think the final Survation poll in 2017 had the Tories only 1% ahead...so that is a bit worrying.

 

Oh well, perhaps the snow and rain will keep the Tory voters at home.

 

There's no snow forecast - according to the Countryfile forecast, it should be windy with normal temperatures.

He's also lying (as of 2018) about VAT on tampons - but I'll leave that to our esteemed EU law accountants to explain why.

 

Pathological liar.

We’ve pushed it to the lowest rate allowable under EU law but leaving the EU means we could zero rate the products (if anyone believes a Tory government would theyre a f***ing eejit). There is some work being done in Brussels to kill off the tampon tax EU wide I believe but VAT law in the EU is monumentally complex as it’s works on the basis of unanimous votes for a change or the change dies. So you’ll get some slight vomit worthy governments (looking at u Poland & Hungary) that have a full and easy veto over the changes.

 

It’d be easier outside the EU to remove the tampon tax, but that’s not to say that it cannot be done within the EU, it’s just got some politics to navigate.

We’ve pushed it to the lowest rate allowable under EU law but leaving the EU means we could zero rate the products (if anyone believes a Tory government would theyre a f***ing eejit).

 

True enough, but the important would here is *could*, i.e. we can make decisions on such matters without EU approval.