I can't see Trump being on as low as 125. Can anyone else? Biden landslide if he is.

Edited October 28, 20204 yr by Crazy Chris

I can tbh the way he’s got on this past year

There is a narrow path for Biden to get to 400+ electoral college votes, but I suspect he's more likely to be in the Obama 2008/12 region of 340-360. I imagine Texas, Ohio, Georgia will all be within 2% - if he does win by 11 points nationally there's a very good chance he takes them too, but as it stands it looks more like an 8% margin nationally.

 

If Trump does end up losing in a landslide, as I mentioned in the other thread, that can only be good for the future stability and democracy of the USA.

People assume the margin of error will typically benefit GOP on Election Day. Two interesting takes from 2016 election.

 

Nevada was predicted to go to Trump, but went to Clinton.

 

Texas was somewhat closer than predicted. If the same margin of error reoccurs there again which and given it’s virtually neck and neck and apparently the turnout is off the scale, a Biden win is a very realistic outcome. It would also be the biggest political story of the year in the US - and delicious to see.

Edited October 28, 20204 yr by ScottyEm

LeanTossup have been very very Democratic-advantaged from their forecast, I want to believe it but with every other pollster/report mostly being in the 310-350 range, that's what I'd expect to see.

I don't want to fuel too much optimism here but these turnout figures are surely a good sign, right?

 

@1321414150896181248

I'm in exactly the same boat - broadly speaking they are good news (with the biggest % gains on 2016 being in largely more diverse counties etc). It really depends on the accuracy of polling - Democrats have a definite edge in early voting, but it's still widely expected Republican's will turnout on the day. However, Independants will really make the difference (as always) and polling suggests Biden is winning there, but of course the polls could be out in his favour, or Trump's favour. I'm choosing to believe it is good news (we need some damned good news!).

I wonder if Trump's team are all secretly making bets for a Biden win so that they at least win SOMETHING after the election x

In the race for president, @InsideElections is making the following ratings shifts:

 

TEXAS moves from Tilt Republican to TOSS-UP

NORTH CAROLINA moves from Toss-up to TILT DEMOCRATIC

GEORGIA moves from Toss-up to TILT DEMOCRATIC

I wonder if Trump's team are all secretly making bets for a Biden win so that they at least win SOMETHING after the election x

 

 

LOL. I wouldn't put it past them. A bit of good news for them if they make a few dollars. :D

Reading LeanTossup's Twitter is a wild ride. I really hope they turn out to be right here (they seem pretty confident and they do seem to have a good track record with predictions for elections in other countries, though there is the large caveat that this is the first time they're covering a US election).

In the race for president, @InsideElections is making the following ratings shifts:

 

TEXAS moves from Tilt Republican to TOSS-UP

 

You love to see it. *.*

You love to see it. *.*

 

Trump was on defensive today holding two rallies in Arizona, he may have to campaign a lot in Texas soon too now at this rate.

Nigel Farage has urged all Americans yet to vote to "Vote For Decency and Vote Trump"

You love to see it. *.*

 

 

Me? It upsets and depresses me so much dude. :(

May take a Net break this weekend to gather my thoughts. :)

Edited October 29, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

From CNN:

 

If Biden were to win all the States that he currently leads in the polls (based on averages yesterday of all recent polls) he would win 356 to 181 with Maine Dist 1 currently a tie.

 

If Biden wins all States where he has a lead of over 6.3% he has 259 and needs just 11 more. Any one of Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio or Texas would be enough. Trump currently only leads in the last two.

 

Wisconsin and Michigan are already heading to Biden as part of the 259 based on poll leads over 9% in each.

Interesting stat on CNN just now. Most states being hit hardest by Covid-19 at the moment are 'Red' states : only one Blue state in the top 10.

Nigel Farage has urged all Americans yet to vote to "Vote For Decency and Vote Trump"

That would mean voting twice which isn’t allowed.

Interesting stat on CNN just now. Most states being hit hardest by Covid-19 at the moment are 'Red' states : only one Blue state in the top 10.

 

It's strange that a virus is blind to political affiliation isn't it.

 

(this is a swipe at Trump and his disgusting rhetoric of dividing the country into Red/Blue, just for clarity)

Me? It upsets and depresses me so much dude. :(

May take a Net break this weekend to gather my thoughts. :)

 

We've had to put up with 4 years of this shit, so suck it up buttercup.

 

That would mean voting twice which isn’t allowed.

 

:lol: