If he did win it wouldn't be easy. You're underestimating encumbency, a good economy and the Republicans being a very rich machine ready to fight tooth and nail.

 

You're underestimating an economy rigged for the top, the economy only working for the rich, impeachment, and the fact that Bernie is the most popular politician in the country and polls extremely well with independents and has crossover appeal AND is a Democrstic outsider AND the most trusted politician. If anything, people underestimate Repubkican CHEATING and voter suppression.

 

I was right again that Bernie would get massive momentum and essily defeat Warren. She needs to drop out. Remember a few months ago when I ssid that and people here RUSHED to say that Bernie should be the one to drop out, clearly not understanding his popularity and the fact Warren is a corporate candidate and used to be a Republican?! :rofl: Whoops again, buzzjack!! One even tried to say he was Corbyn :drama: Told y'all I know a thing or two x

I was right again that Bernie would get massive momentum and essily defeat Warren. She needs to drop out. Remember a few months ago when I ssid that and people here RUSHED to say that Bernie should be the one to drop out, clearly not understanding his popularity and the fact Warren is a corporate candidate and used to be a Republican?! :rofl: Whoops again, buzzjack!! One even tried to say he was Corbyn :drama: Told y'all I know a thing or two x

 

 

What are your thoughts on Biden today? Has he lost all momentum now?

Edited February 23, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

If he loses South Carolina, he's done. If he wins, he limps on. He might eventually, if everyone else drops out (but I can't see Pete dropping out due to how smug and arrogant and anti-Bernie he is, or Bloomberg for that matter), get 2nd place, but eh. Bernie is the frontrunner.

I was right again that Bernie would get massive momentum and essily defeat Warren. She needs to drop out. Remember a few months ago when I ssid that and people here RUSHED to say that Bernie should be the one to drop out, clearly not understanding his popularity and the fact Warren is a corporate candidate and used to be a Republican?! :rofl: Whoops again, buzzjack!! One even tried to say he was Corbyn :drama: Told y'all I know a thing or two x

 

You do have a habit of picking and choosing your predictions.

 

What are your thoughts on Biden today? Has he lost all momentum now?

 

Bill Clinton lost 11 of the first 13 primaries — it's not over for Biden, but his lead is narrowing in South Carolina. If Bernie wins there then he's going to be unstoppable.

 

I don't think anyone is going to drop out until after Super Tuesday.

@1231566599511035906

@1231565411537293313

 

The media are predictably losing it.

You do have a habit of picking and choosing your predictions.

Bill Clinton lost 11 of the first 13 primaries — it's not over for Biden, but his lead is narrowing in South Carolina. If Bernie wins there then he's going to be unstoppable.

 

I don't think anyone is going to drop out until after Super Tuesday.

 

My predictions have all been solid.

 

Bill did not lose as badly as Biden though :lol: His Iowa and NH losses were historic.

I have to say my confidence that Bernie will definitely beat Trump is not quite as much as it was before after seeing that one poll showing him losing to Trump in Wisconsin, as that's going to be one of the most important states. If Trump is holding onto the Rust Belt even with Bernie as the candidate then I don't think there's really much the Democrats could do to stop him being re-elected which is a pretty scary thought. That is just one poll though and other polls have come out which show Bernie and indeed all the other Dems leading there and holding larger leads in the other Rust Belt states.

 

I am still very confident though that Bernie is the Democrats' best hope of making the race against Trump as easy as it's possible to be, because the other Dems would do worse in those states (and they'd make up for it by, what, making South Carolina and Mississippi slightly less one-sided while still losing?) There is also another very encouraging sign for Bernie in that he's done extremely well with Latino voters (winning over half of them in Nevada) which is a good sign for him in the increasingly Dem trending states with high Latino populations like Arizona and - dare I say it - Texas (I wouldn't go so far as to say I expect him to win Texas but it wouldn't be wildly out of the realm of possibility).

If the Democrat establishment weren't so INCOMPETENT, they wouldn't have basically rigged the primary season last time and allowed a fair fight. We would have a Bernie presidency right now! Incumbents are simply harder to beat and Trump has a cult. It will be a battle this time around.

Re: Trump's defeat, last year I was about 70% sure a Democrat would beat him, with Bernie being a riskier choice with regards to that question. Now my guess would put it at about 50/50.

 

But I increasingly feel that the best route to beating Trump is choosing Bernie, even if he's not still exactly the ideal candidate. It's not that my faith in Sanders's ability to win has improved, but more that Primary voters so far - a majority of whom haven't voted for Sanders - have failed to coalesce around a different option. You can point to all of the non-Sanders options and claim they have their own electability/other serious issues anyway. :ph34r:

 

Hoping for more Nevada-like results going forward.

 

I'm also spooked by the 12% of the Sanders Primary voters in 2016 ending up choosing Trump in November and, given the way the Primaries are going, I can't help but feel this number will be higher amongst the losing cohort of Primary voters, regardless of whether Sanders or a moderate is chosen.

Edited February 23, 20205 yr by Harve

I'm also spooked by the 12% of the Sanders Primary voters in 2016 ending up choosing Trump in November and, given the way the Primaries are going, I can't help but feel this number will be higher amongst the losing cohort of Primary voters, regardless of whether Sanders or a moderate is chosen.

 

I think it's important to note that a lot of Sanders' voters in the primary were (and are again this year) independents so they may have decided to vote in the Democratic primary even though they don't usually support the Democrats, and were just voting for the most anti-establishment candidate, so it would make sense in some way that they'd then go on to vote for Trump in the general election. The vast majority of actual Democrats vote for the Democrat in the general election no matter who it is, the main argument in favour of Bernie is that he appeals the most to independents compared to the other candidates, and that he will excite younger voters (who are less consistent in actually showing up to vote) more than the other candidates would. It's possible that effect could be outweighed by usually reliable Democrat voters not being willing to back Sanders due to omg scary socialism but I don't think the statistics bear that out.

 

Having said that, I don't know if this is true or not but I've read/heard repeatedly from Bernie supporters in response to people pointing out the number of Bernie/Trump voters that there was more defection from Clinton primary voters to McCain in 2008 than Sanders to Trump in 2016. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If the Democrat establishment weren't so INCOMPETENT, they wouldn't have basically rigged the primary season last time and allowed a fair fight. We would have a Bernie presidency right now! Incumbents are simply harder to beat and Trump has a cult. It will be a battle this time around.

 

 

There was a fair fight last time between the surprise Republican nominee Trump and the expected Democrat nominee Clinton. She won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. I was sure she'd end up President and though a big Trump fan now, was as shocked as anyone then that he'd actually won. Think even he was shocked!

Re: Trump's defeat, last year I was about 70% sure a Democrat would beat him, with Bernie being a riskier choice with regards to that question. Now my guess would put it at about 50/50.

 

But I increasingly feel that the best route to beating Trump is choosing Bernie, even if he's not still exactly the ideal candidate. It's not that my faith in Sanders's ability to win has improved, but more that Primary voters so far - a majority of whom haven't voted for Sanders - have failed to coalesce around a different option. You can point to all of the non-Sanders options and claim they have their own electability/other serious issues anyway. :ph34r:

 

Hoping for more Nevada-like results going forward.

 

I'm also spooked by the 12% of the Sanders Primary voters in 2016 ending up choosing Trump in November and, given the way the Primaries are going, I can't help but feel this number will be higher amongst the losing cohort of Primary voters, regardless of whether Sanders or a moderate is chosen.

 

More of Hillaey's voters in 2008 voted Republican than Bernie supporters in 2016 lol x He is also way, way, waaay more electable.

 

What is this obsession with the dead centre?! It is hollowed out. It's finished. It's over. Boomers' neoliberal economy has destroyed the centre for a generation. Left or right now. Make your choice.

There was a fair fight last time between the surprise Republican nominee Trump and the expected Democrat nominee Clinton. She won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. I was sure she'd end up President and though a big Trump fan now, was as shocked as anyone then that he'd actually won. Think even he was shocked!

 

Not quite. You and I both predicted that Trump woupd win... Your posts are all there to see.

Also an interesting side note - based on the results we have from Nevada so far Bernie's leads in the three different metrics of the convoluted caucus system are the exact inverse of what they were in Iowa, there he went from a 4 point lead in the first alignment to a 2 point lead in the final alignment to essentially a dead tie / very very marginal loss in the state delegate equivalents, whereas in Nevada he currently appears to be 'only' 17 points ahead in the first alignment but 22 points ahead in the final alignment and 26 points ahead in the county convention delegates. Weird. xx

Pete has fallen beneath 15%! :cheer:

From Politico.

 

 

MIAMI — Bernie Sanders says he’s the Democrat best-equipped to defeat Donald Trump in November.

 

But Florida Democrats insist he‘s the worst-equipped after Sanders’ refusal Sunday night to thoroughly condemn the Cuban revolution. His comments on 60 Minutes sent shock waves through the nation’s biggest battleground state, where Democratic members of Congress, state legislators and party leaders warned that his nomination — and Sanders’ self-described “Democratic socialism” — will cost them the biggest battleground state of them all.

 

Donald Trump wins Florida if Bernie is our nominee,” said state Rep. Javier Fernandez, a Democratic candidate in a majority-Hispanic state Senate district.

 

 

“If Bernie Sanders is atop the ticket, it’s going to make it tougher for all of us to win in Florida,” said Fernandez, who has endorsed Sanders’ rival Joe Biden. “No one really sees Sanders winning Florida and I don’t think his campaign does either.”

 

As a state with an influential cross-section of Latinos whose families fled leftist Latin American regimes and violence, Sanders embrace of far-left leaders and his past refusals to wholeheartedly condemn Latin American strongmen and the Soviet Union have long been seen as fatal flaws.

 

Sanders on Sunday did nothing to allay those concerns in a 60 Minutes interview in which he was asked about his 1985 comments stating that the Cuban people didn’t “rise up in rebellion against Fidel Castro” because “he educated their kids, gave their kids health care, totally transformed society.”

 

There was no mention of the firing squads, political purges and mass arrests that accompanied the 1959 revolution.

 

"We're very opposed to the authoritarian nature of Cuba but you know, it's unfair to simply say everything is bad. You know?" Sanders said Sunday when asked about the remarks. "When Fidel Castro came into office, you know what he did? He had a massive literacy program. Is that a bad thing? Even though Fidel Castro did it?"

 

Sanders’ campaign dismisses concerns about socialism as modern-day “red-baiting” and points to polling, however, that shows he’s essentially tied with Trump in Florida, just like other Democrats like Biden.

 

But that could change under the kind of sustained assault that Trump’s campaign is waiting to unleash once he becomes the nominee — Florida is a must-win state for Trump.

 

 

Edited February 25, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

Pete has fallen beneath 15%! :cheer:

 

 

Oh I think Bernie will get the nomination now but has put his foot in it with Florida and can't see him winning there now. Makes it tougher to get to 270 delegates needed if Florida goes to Trump.

Edited February 25, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

Donald Trump wins Florida no matter the Democrat nominee, I'm fairly certain it's trending Republican in a way few other states are.

 

Anyway, this interview, it's a 'ask him about Cuba, he won't condemn it completely and then we've got him' thing.

 

@1231781040211013632

 

I really hate the lack of nuance that media narrative drivers try to spin on us. There's no need to condemn Cuba's education system, because it's good. Really hoped we'd all moved past the era of 'socialism is when the government does bad things'.

In any case the great thing about the Sanders campaign is that it's not necessarily about one man, it's just being led by a very charismatic man who's had a lifetime of fighting for social democracy.

 

@1231735507236917249

 

Also the policies that came out from that same interview are very strong, paying for the things that matter. 'How are you going to pay for that? Well, how are you going to pay for military spending and tax breaks to the 1% and large corporations' indeed.

https://www.newsweek.com/boy-asks-pete-butt...out-gay-1488624?

 

I though this was lovely, and moments like this show why it's a momentous and important thing that he's running and why I'm glad he's in the race. (even if he's completely not who I'm backing to win in this).