64% of votes counted in Pennsylvania and Trump leads by 14%.

Edited November 4, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

Just kill me now and get this over with y’all.

Wisconsin has 86% counted and Trump up 4%. Michigan 63% counted and Trump up 9%.

 

The BBC say Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan have announced they should be able to tally up much quicker than was being reported. Trump leads in all three so far. So we should get a result tomorrow.

Edited November 4, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

Georgia trending towards Biden per NYT which has been on the money for most things tonight - granted it’s only predicting a 0.3 win but a win is a win. With that, Arizona, Nebraska 2nd district, Michigan and Wisconsin Biden would clinch it.

With Nebraska's second congressional district called for Joe Biden, it is no longer possible for the electoral college to tie. One of the candidates will win an electoral majority when all of the votes are counted.

 

I AM GUTTED THERE CANT BE A DRAW

With Nebraska's second congressional district called for Joe Biden, it is no longer possible for the electoral college to tie. One of the candidates will win an electoral majority when all of the votes are counted.

 

I AM GUTTED THERE CANT BE A DRAW

 

According to Nate Silver (and based on what ABC has called only), this takes Biden's remaining chances of victory from 69% to 85%. Losing all of those tied outcomes where weird stuff happens is excellent for the Democrats' chances.

 

(I get roughly the same playing with the 538 predictor, so confirmed, though this sort of future prediction does require uniform swings etc)

The good news is with Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin Biden wins without even needing to worry about PA - and the potential of Georgia.

 

He’s lost the senate which is shit but it’s not a total loss (maybe)

CNN calling Montana, 3 ECV for Trump.

Looks like Biden is catching up to Trump in Georgia.

I see Biden 300k behind on Michigan right now according to the tracker - are there mail-ins to be counted there?

Devastated about the loss of the senate.

Edited November 4, 20204 yr by Tawdry Hepburn

because I can feel myself going slowly insane if anyones interested in astrology — mercury turned direct today which portends confusion and delays while the energy shifts, but communication and the transfer of information should become more straightforward in the coming days. it's also square Saturn until the 6th which isn't helping things, so once mercury breaks free of that transit things should become clearer. idk why im posting this but I am taking hope wherever i can get it right now

Edited November 4, 20204 yr by dhwe

I see Biden 300k behind on Michigan right now according to the tracker - are there mail-ins to be counted there?

 

 

Yes, as well as in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump up in all three but those to do yet.

In all of WI, MI and PA, as a general rule*, the counties that still have the most to report are Detroit's, Philadelphia's, Pittsburgh's and Milwaukee's. So all the big cities. Which are more Democrat-leaning naturally. They all look fine to me.

 

*I see one red county in Michigan with only 4.5% reporting but most of the red counties across these states have 95%+, so that's an outlier (and it seems to be one of those hilariously rural ones, the ones to be concerned about are the likes of Brown County in Wisconsin which is pretty red but only 60% in)

I’m feeling more pessimistic than ever. I know there’s points for it still to go either way at this point but it’s home so below expectations so far and as said before, we should now know not to be optimistic over political votes anymore

 

None of the polls predicted that it would be so close did they? Still could go either way.

Edited November 4, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

As of just now are the polls even further off than 2016?

Yeh Biden was well ahead of Clinton even in the polls so they were pretty much wrong in many states. The rust belts seem to have stayed with trump while Florida was won even more by trump this time.

 

Be some craic if trump declared victory here in this speech 😂

As of just now are the polls even further off than 2016?

 

 

Yes.

Nope, the polls are fairly close to what they've been all campaign (for the states that have called) in statewide races (which you need to look at, not just national). Florida's the only state that's really off base, which, well, it's a weird place.

 

Texas and Ohio are also fairly off but if we allow for what they haven't reported, late mail-ins, it'll likely be closer but still Trump, which was as expected. Everything else looks like within range of a normal polling error.

 

Don't say the polls were wrong until the whole result is in.