There's less of a Muslim vote than in Bradford West which he won in 2012, but still a significant one in Batley. It has been a while which is why I'm not certain but this is an experienced left populist with a track record - I'd be very worried about him if I were Labour, and hope their ground game, what they're able to do, can counter it.

 

But what can Labour offer under Starmer, except for a reason to stay home?

Could be an upset in the offing tomorrow..

 

@1405163195057295361

When more people approve of the government's performance than disapprove, which historically is exceptional, then I don't think that the national environment allows for a Lib Dem win, and if local issues are at play then a narrow loss I don't think means much for everyone else either.

Edited June 16, 20214 yr by Harve

It would be quite a turnout for LDs to take Chesham & Amersham but I don't see it happening.

Could be an upset in the offing tomorrow..

 

@1405163195057295361

If that is the final result then I will be pretty p1ssed off. After all, it would show that the Lib Dems would probably have won if the press (and television news) had bothered to take any notice of what was going on.

Even though it’s not a win, that result would be a big boost to Ed Davey and will make the Tories think again about their “Red Wall” obsession. Wonder what the reason is for that huge swing? Well despite the Tories being useless and corrupt obviously but that’s not affected their vote in last few years.

The opposition parties managing to deny the Tories an outright majority in Chesham tonight, which has never happened in this constituency, even at their nadir in the early 00s, would still be a pretty encouraging result given the favourable national environment for the government. I think expectations management has gone a bit awry here where, say, 50% Tory/35% Lib Dem/8% Green/7% Labour + others would be seen as a disappointment and an anti-climax.

@1405683970264776708

 

It would seem that I was too pessimistic.

 

Also while I love to see Tories losing, when you lose to a campaign that's added onto the baseline ~35% progressive core vote with anti-HS2, anti-housebuilding and other NIMBY-adjacent messages, it doesn't exactly fill you with confidence.

 

(also whatever the result, this will get 20% of the coverage that Hartlepool got - despite more important elections happening at the same time for the latter - because England just love doing a story about Labour woes to death)

Edited June 18, 20214 yr by Harve

Ok the Tories actually got demolished lmao

Fantastic news! Tories demolished (oh it feels good to write that even for a by election). The seat isnt a million miles away from Uxbridge, Johnson's old seat either. Well done Lib Dems

How did they manage to turn a 16,000 Tory majority in 2019 into an 8,000 victory here? I haven't really been keeping tabs on this by-election admittedly, but that seems unprecedented to me.

 

(especially as I expected the death of the Tory MP to have triggered this by-election would have created a fair bit of goodwill for their successor, if that's an OK thing to say)

Edited June 18, 20214 yr by Tawdry Hepburn

Holy.. hell.

 

That's very good news for my theory that Tories chasing northern votes has left them vulnerable to Lib Dems in certain parts of the leafy, localist south. Maybe anti-HS2 sentiment played a specific part, but otherwise this looks like an average Home County seat.

 

Definitely should get the same amount of coverage that Hartlepool got, it won't.

(especially as I expected the death of the Tory MP to have triggered this by-election would have created a fair bit of goodwill for their successor, if that's an OK thing to say)

In 1990, a Tory MP was literally murdered by the IRA and in the resulting by-election, voters replaced him with a Lib Dem. Quite a callous electorate.

Also Labour on less than 2% of the vote when they got 11,000 in 2017, definitely tactical voting going on and few enough people in this constituency who'd vote for Labour regardless.

That's an amazing result. The number of emails I've had from the Lib Dems over the last few weeks was a clear sign of optimism but I didn't expect a win on this scale.

 

It is pretty disgraceful that there has been no pre-vote coverage of this byelection at all. It must have been clear for at least a week but I have seen nothing in the press and nothing on the BBC website apart from a brief mention when Johnson paid a visit. Even now, the result is only the second story on the BBC site.

Minister for propaganda Laura Kuenssberg tweeted last night that the Tories were not worried about the possibility of losing the seat. She clearly didn't get permission from her boss at Number Ten to speak to anyone from the Lib Dems who might have given a different view.

How did they manage to turn a 16,000 Tory majority in 2019 into an 8,000 victory here? I haven't really been keeping tabs on this by-election admittedly, but that seems unprecedented to me.

 

(especially as I expected the death of the Tory MP to have triggered this by-election would have created a fair bit of goodwill for their successor, if that's an OK thing to say)

 

You haven’t because the right wing media haven’t been throwing it down your throat!!

Looks like the Lib Dems will have to upgrade their parliamentary offices from a phone box to a small caravan.

 

Definitely got this prediction wrong, another one to add to the list. I imagine there were a lot of local factors in play here - The Great Realignment cuts both ways.

Stunning result for the Lib Dems :cheeseblock:

 

And they managed to do it without sustained daily media hype like the Tories had with Hartlepool.

Zero coverage of this on the homepage of bbc News. Hartlepool however was the lead story for like a week

 

This only appears when you click into the UK.

 

 

Unless of course the main page is configured differently for international viewers but they’ve never buried a Tory gain like this…