August 28, 20231 yr They generally do, problem is in a GE outside of the south west and less urban areas of southern England they don’t compete well.
August 28, 20231 yr Author They generally do, problem is in a GE outside of the south west and less urban areas of southern England they don’t compete well. It's a question of resources. There are several seats in Surrey that the Lib Dems have a decent chance of winning, but I suspect there are not enough members in the aera to be able to target all of them. The hope has to be that seats like Guildford can be considered to be "in the bag" by the time the election is called, meaning that members outside Guildford can be directed elsewhere.
September 16, 20231 yr Can Lib Dems like stop campaigning there (or even better cooperate with Labour)
September 16, 20231 yr Seat fits the profile of a Lib Dem gain more than it does a Labour one, they won't. Very high variance in constituency polls too. 3-way race it is because even if neither Liberals or Labour win this by-election both parties will want to mark the seat as their territory for the general which is probably a more important consideration long-term. As it's the same day as Tamworth, that a far more straightforward Labour target, Lib Dems will focus their by-election machine in Mid Beds no matter what. Labour will have the resources to do both. Could go any way tbh.
October 2, 20231 yr ANOTHER by election forthcoming as corrupt, ultra right wing Tory MP with vile views (mind you that's like over 75% of Tories) Scott Benton likely to be suspended - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tori...ection-31082177 Blackpool South which is normally a Labour seat but being very Brexity voted Tory in 2019 should be an easy win for Starmer - majority is 3690
October 5, 20231 yr Rutherglen and Hamilton by-by election turnout a poor 37.2% Labour confident of a win. Let's see. Despite my disappointment with Starmer, I want them to do well as so want Tories out for the sake of humanity, and need Labour to get some momentum.
October 6, 20231 yr Wasn't even close, Labour winning nearly 60% of the vote and more than double the SNP.
October 6, 20231 yr That’s a landslide indeed. Labour’s road to getting a majority rather than a plurality will rely on them flipping a good lot of the Scottish seats, so this result bodes well for them in 2024. The SNP though I can see returning to a rump party by the next election.
October 6, 20231 yr LAB 17,845 SNP 8,399 CON 1,192 LIB 892 deposit lost for everyone apart from the SNP and Labour ha. But yes, I did not call Labour getting over 50% of the vote even in one of the notionally friendlier Scottish seats for them, it's a sign that the SNP's star has faded quite a bit from the bad headlines they've had over the last few months.
October 6, 20231 yr LAB 17,845 SNP 8,399 CON 1,192 LIB 892 deposit lost for everyone apart from the SNP and Labour ha. But yes, I did not call Labour getting over 50% of the vote even in one of the notionally friendlier Scottish seats for them, it's a sign that the SNP's star has faded quite a bit from the bad headlines they've had over the last few months. Sturgeon not being leader will hurt the SNP. I still don't think Labour will make that many gains (as things stand) but it probably highlights where the SNP have work to do. Bodes well for Labour though in a general election.
October 17, 20231 yr Peter Bone - a repellent hard right sexist ultra Brexiter with no redeeming qualities whatsoever, Tory MP for Wellingborough has had the whip withdrawn by his party following the publication of a report from the independent expert panel yesterday saying he should be suspended from the Commons for six weeks for bullying and sexual misconduct. So yet ANOTHER by election on the cards. A huge majority of 18540 at the last General Election but should be easily beatable considering the unpopularity of the Government and possibly Tactical voting. Guess we'll see the result of the Bedfordshire election on Thursday as whether this works out effectively in ditching the Tory.
October 17, 20231 yr Author Quirky fact of the day - the last time Wellingborough had two consecutive MPs from the same party was in 1929. Bone(head) is indeed particularly awful. It also looks like his frequent references to Mrs Bone(head) might have been his way of trying to convince himself he was straight.
October 20, 20231 yr Tamworth looking like a definite Labour win. Mid Beds was looking much closer but very recent mumbling are that Labour have won there too. Let's hope that's the case in a few hours.
October 20, 20231 yr Tamworth: LAB 11,719 CON 10,403 REF 1,373 Mid-Bedforshire: LAB 13,872 CON 12,680 LIB 9,420 IND 1,865 REF 1,487 GRE 732 So close in both but both Labour victories in what were very safe Tory seats. Tamworth I expected as it has been Labour before but I did not call Mid-Beds, I thought that would be an obvious 3-way with Conservatives winning. Great stuff for Labour, it's like the last set without that anomalous Uxbridge result so should really put pressure on the government to be afraid of a wipeout. also of note is that Reform did pretty well compared to their previous results, not huge but enough to be beating the margin, which might influence which direction the Tories go trying to respond to this.
October 20, 20231 yr So Rishi Sunak's 'Destroy the Environment and Trans people' policy emphasis going well then isn't it...
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