The Chesham & Amersham byelection is on June 18, just before the target date for the lifting of most restrictions. That might be seen as an attempt to stop the Lib Dems mounting a full campaign but it could backfire if the government has to delay the next stage of their plan.

Airdrie and Shotts is this week! It should be an SNP win. The current MP just won election to Holyrood for the same constituency so it’s be a Shock a week later to see that reversed! Not sure why they couldn’t hold them on the same day tho

This was indeed a solid nationalist win!

Few days ago, but the Batley and Spen by-election is being contested by Jo Cox's sister, Kim Leadbeater - for Labour of course. Which is instantly a much better choice than the previous big one, and Batley and Spen is a less vulnerable seat for Labour than Hartlepool, though I'm still expecting a close race.

 

Chesham and Amersham, mildly interesting but I don't even think the LD + Lab vote will outpace the Tories here.

Few days ago, but the Batley and Spen by-election is being contested by Jo Cox's sister, Kim Leadbeater - for Labour of course. Which is instantly a much better choice than the previous big one, and Batley and Spen is a less vulnerable seat for Labour than Hartlepool, though I'm still expecting a close race.

 

Chesham and Amersham, mildly interesting but I don't even think the LD + Lab vote will outpace the Tories here.

The Tory vote in Chesham & Amersham has never fallen below 50% so a Tory defeat is still unlikely. If the anti-Tory vote coalesces behind the Lib Dem’s, the Tories could at least be given a bit of a scare.

The way things are going I'm half expecting Chesham and Amersham to be closer than Batley and Spen. But both will be two Tory wins. Starmer is seen as a huge liability now by the voters as he stands for nothing.

George Galloway has announced he's standing in Batley & Spen for the Workers Party of Great Britain (not to be confused with the Workers Party). The last time he stood in a parliamentary constituency in 2019 he got 489 votes, standing in West Brom East, and can't see him doing much better here. I think Batley & Spen will be a Labour hold - they've picked the one candidate who can beat the Tories here.

I wonder if the Heavy Woollen District Independents will stand again - they got over 12% in 2019.

I wonder if the Heavy Woollen District Independents will stand again - they got over 12% in 2019.

 

Guido Fawkes seems to be suggesting that if Paul Halloran does run, it will be under the banner of Reform (ie the continuity Brexit Party), or Lawrence Fox's party. Although given how badly Reform did in the last by-election they stood in, and how badly Reclaim did in the London mayoral elections, it's unlikely that he would pull enough votes away to have an effect on the votes.

The Batley & Spen byelection will be on 1 July.

The candidates for the Chesham & Amersham by-election on 17th June are -

 

Green - Carolyne Culver

Rejoin EU - Brendan Donnelly

Conservative - Peter Fleet

Liberal Democrats - Sarah Green

Breakthrough Party - Carla Gregory

Freedom Alliance - Adrian Oliver

Labour - Natasa Pantelic

Reform UK - Alex Wilson

 

Breakthrough Party are contesting their first by-election; they appear to be a youth-orientated democratic socialist party. An anti-lockdown party, the Freedom Alliance, will be contesting the last election where they could have any relevance, whilst Brendan Donnelly is a former Tory MEP turned pro-EU campaigner. Think this will be a Tory win, with Lib Dems 2nd.

Only thing notable is that the Tories have a possibility of getting a smaller vote share in a constituency they've won absolute majorities in for decades than their vote share in Hartlepool (52%) that they gained midterm after decades of Labour wins.

 

But their victory could be a lot better than 52% too. If the home counties start turning away from the Tories in favour of the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour then this isn't the first place where this will happen. The remain vote, housing crisis, ethnic diversity and out-migration of young families from London - all factors that could play a part in a Tory downfall - is happening more so in other suburban constituencies.

Quite an interesting article about the Batley & Spen by-election here, which outlines why it is highly likely that Labour will retain the seat despite it voting 60% to Leave. Basically, Batley is not Hartlepool.

Hartlepool was perhaps the worst Labour-held constituency for a by-election to be held in this parliamentary cycle. Batley isn't so bad, although I'd say that it's still a bit worse than the average of Labour's 200 seats*. But I think if the Hartlepool result was replicated with Batley's demographics then it would still be a defeat for Labour, so they need to run a better campaign rather than just relying on more favourable demographics.

 

Of course, for the Tory majority to be threatened next general election, a sign would be them losing Batley not just by a little but fairly handily.

 

It's also important to recognise that this seat has only had a Labour majority once, in 2017. It only switched to Labour in 1997 after voting for the Tories in Thatcher's time, and even at the height of Tony Blair's popularity, Labour could only manage a plurality.

 

*You can go into census breakdowns if you want, but honestly I find that the 2015 UKIP vote is a pretty good indicator for everything that follows, and at 18% it was rather high here. The BNP presence has also historically been large.

 

After a massive range of candidates in the recent Hartlepool by-election, the Batley & Spen by-election also has a mammoth ballot, with sixteen different candidates taking part in the Labour marginal on 1st July. The candidates are -

• Paul Bickerdike - Christian Peoples Alliance
• Mike Davies - Alliance For Green Socialism
• Jayda Fransen - Independent
• George Galloway - Workers Party
• Tom Gordon - Liberal Democrats
• Thérèse Hirst - English Democrats
• Howling Laud Hope - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• Susan Laird - Heritage Party
• Kim Leadbeater - Labour Party
• Oliver Purser - Social Democratic Party
• Corey Robinson - Yorkshire Party
• Andrew Smith - Rejoin EU
• Ryan Stephenson - Conservative Party
• Jack Thomson - UK Independence Party
• Jonathan Tilt - Freedom Alliance
• Anne Marie Waters - The For Britain Movement

Notable by their absence are the Green Party; their announced candidate was stood down after someone dredged up tweets he made 9 years ago. A different emerald party, the Alliance For Green Socialism (me neither) are taking part instead. Rejoin EU & Freedom Alliance are surprisingly taking part in their 2nd by-election in a manner of weeks. Elsewhere, the Anti-Muslim, Anti-Catholic Morrissey favourite Anne Marie Waters is standing, as is convicted criminal and perennial loser Jayda Fransen.

 

Still putting this down as a Labour victory. Whilst the Greens pulling out might give them a boost, given they only got 700 votes in 2019 I don't think that the margin will be smaller than that.

Jayda Fransen, Anne-Marie Waters AND George Galloway on the same ballot, and no doubt some of the others are rather unsavoury too. The fash are spoilt for choice.

 

Here's hoping that Jayda gets crowded out and gets fewer votes than the 46 she had in Glasgow South, although given that it's in England I imagine she'll get a few more.

Think the one to keep an eye on here is the Yorkshire Party- did really well in the Mayoral elections. Be interested to see if they can finish 3rd or 4th here.

The sight of fash having the audacity to stand in this seat makes me sick.

Galloway could well be the spoiler that turns this into a closer race than it should be. It may have been a while but he has form in mobilising the Muslim vote and some left-wing votes. I'd say him third with Labour narrowly losing to the Conservatives.

Galloway could well be the spoiler that turns this into a closer race than it should be. It may have been a while but he has form in mobilising the Muslim vote and some left-wing votes. I'd say him third with Labour narrowly losing to the Conservatives.

 

Not sure he will do too well really, I think lots of people aren't really bothered about voting for someone who hates Israel and local issues are more of a vote swinger, rather than a single issue. I reckon the Yorkshire Party will pick up a lot of the Green vote and anti-establishment vote. Be really interesting to see how they do after the strong showing in West Yorkshire Mayor elections.

There's less of a Muslim vote than in Bradford West which he won in 2012, but still a significant one in Batley. It has been a while which is why I'm not certain but this is an experienced left populist with a track record - I'd be very worried about him if I were Labour, and hope their ground game, what they're able to do, can counter it.