Oh global scale perhaps. Inside the situation is a polar opposite

so Putin talking about cleansing-up Russia of traitors.

 

That always turns out well when megalomaniac tyrants spout off about purification. Guessing he's feeling a bit vulnerable now so is getting his warnings in early that anyone who doesn't toe the line can expect a gift carefully scented with Novichok in the post. It's his go-to solution for anyone that pisses him off. That and invading neighbours.

Hi guys,

 

It's been a huge while since I actively posted anywhere on here, but since I've been talking to many of you, I hope you won't mind if I squeeze in a thought or two.

 

Right now I'm in Turkey, I fled Russia the day before yesterday and moving to Mexico tomorrow. I bought the tickets on 4th of March, when Parliament was rumoured to claim a martial law, but instead voted for a set of very repressing laws about the "fakes" of this "special operation". Since I can be quite easily put into the action of those laws, the decision was made. And the next day the flats of tens of my acquaintances got searched by the cops, some of them got detained, accused of "false terrorism calls". I was happy to wake up by myself but moved my laptop and money to the other place the same day. Now I feel free and relieved.

 

I: Genesis

 

How did it all come to this? One can say it goes back to 1917 - 1918 with the liquidation of the Russian Constituent Assembly. And they are not wrong: the lawful evolution of power was interrupted there and is still held by the descendants of those people. Decades of total repressions and emigration of many people who can even try to think differently also played the fatal role.

 

But overall this war and its consequences can be described by one word (other than obvious moral degradation and total lack of empathy of any kind)

 

It's delusion.

 

Putin basically built the system of the folders laying on his desk. He was happy receiving good news in them and complemented such departments, and those who brought the difficulties weren't fired - but weren't treated nicely either. And from year to year he was fed the information that Ukrainian government is controlled by NATO / nazis, normal Ukrainians are unhappy with that, and once the Russian army enters the territory, the opposing part will immediately withdraw and people will meet the Russian soldiers with flowers. And it seems that he genuinely believed in all of it.

 

He also believed that all the money he threw in the army wasn't stolen. Why would it be different to any other sphere, where loads of his acquaintances often didn't even bother to hide anything, he didn't even try to ask, because - again - he is delusional.

 

The delusion of oligarchs that he would hold on to his initial role as a guarding dog of their treasures. The delusion of opposition thinking that he cannot be that crazy. The delusion of masses, who got very poor after USSR falling and held to the idea of the "special nation", trying to stick onto that idea as a replacement for lack of any decent physical life.

 

II. Collective responsibility. Where does it start and how far does it go?

 

I've been reading a lot of very different answers to this. Very popular opinion that it's only [mainly] Putin is to blame, and it has its basis. This decision is his and solely his own. He stopped consulting on most key decisions with anyone for a while, he literally makes most of them by himself now.

 

Western leaders keep saying that too, but then we see most of the sanctions hitting mainly the people who don't agree with the war. It became really hard to fly away, and EU pressed even Serbia to stop flying to Russia. Visa / Mastercard banning abroad (not internal!) operations means that people who fled due to the danger of being prosecuted now can't sustain themselves and they might have to go back simply because they stopped having the funds to live. It also means that donating to independent journalists and activists will become much harder. VPN - a magic saviour from numerous blockings of independent media - can almost only be paid through abroad visa / mastercard transactions, potentially cutting off loads of Russians who want to get not the official information.

 

When IELTS cancels the examination in Russia, will it make Putin angry, or will it make it even harder for kids to pass the test and try to escape Russia by going to a foreign University? When internet network operators cut Russia off, does it help to stop the war, or does it help Putin to break the internet for the Russians, and now even without even doing anything? Not to mention a ridiculous Meta policy, which confirmed the paranoia of dictators all over the world and justified even further repressions.

 

Some people / influencers / officials say that it is all to help the people go on public strike against the war. Others even dare to add that silence means compliance with Putin. There was an enormous amount of campaigns to make companies quit Russia, blaming them for funding war otherwise - but barely anyone of activists or politicians say that EU literally funds the war every day by buying gas in enormous amounts. Russia already got 14 billion euros for selling fossils since 24th of February alone.

 

Obviously I know that you can't stop buying oil and gas in an instant. But all the bells rang 8 years ago. Yet the corrupt politicians were very fine with not changing this situation at all or even worsening it, therefore funding not only the preparations to this war, but all of the Putin's guards who lock away and scare off most of the opposition to the regime. And now these people want Russians to oppose the huge army of cops, who they helped to fund all these years.

 

Does Putin hold responsibility to this? Obviously, yes.

Should his supporters be accountable, even if they believe Russia is "saving" Ukrainians?

Should 'I stay out of politics' people be accountable trying to stay in their own shell and not saying or even thinking of anything happening in their country?

Should Navalny be responsible for his strategic voting, where he urged to vote for the current parliament parties and 95% of its candidates, all of whom very obviously then supported the war?

Should the Yabloko party be accountable for, while opposing Putin and actually predicting this war from long ago, saying the wrong words and often repulsing their own followers?

Should the international establishment be responsible for literally funding this war for years before and even now?

Should the voters of the west, just like the voters of Russia, be responsible for the actions of their respective governments, since they actually have fair elections and freedom of speech?

 

I believe the answer to all of this is yes.

 

And no. As all of the above were in the comfort zone, and really: no one in their right mind could have thought that in 2022 you can arrange a bloody war with enormous amount of casualties in the center of Europe. All of us underestimated his insanity, and it is really not hard to do so.

 

But I urge to give a chance to people who oppose Putin to at least to leave the country and/or get the current independent information. Blaming Russians for this war while funding its government with easy oil money is hypocritical. Sanctions regarding access to information, money transactions for normal people (say, no more than 200-500 bucks) and the ability to move must be lifted.

 

That said, it is obviously incompatible to all of the damage and deaths of Ukrainian people caused by the Russian army. I have friends in Kyiv and my heart breaks for them when they tell me their news.

 

III. Where it will lead?

 

My prognosis is quite pessimistic, at least for Russia. I know Ukraine will stand up, even if Putin defeats Kyiv and tries to occupy it (but seems like even he realises now it is impossible). Ukraine is an amazing country full of proud people, and I have my full faith in them that they will recover no matter what.

 

As for the Russians... Well, I cannot rule out the nuclear weapons use. But other than that I feel my country will have a very long decay with constant repressions of "national traitors" and "fifth column", as all of the problems will be put on them. Most of Russians will cope, like they did in the Soviet Union. Or will escape in fear, either physically or emotionally. People will buy out all the groceries and drugs from stores and will blame NATO for their miserable lives. Or be silent. And for Putin it will be even easier to run the country, which will become a vassal of China.

 

Mostly I pity the future of kids, who didn't even have the chance to change the narrative and now may be trapped in this system for their lives.

 

But I hope once I can come back and restore my country, as an independent - but friendly and peaceful state for everybody. It would play the rightful part in European society, and any rivalry will be economical. And the people would finally know how to leave without fear and with a real hope for a decent life, respecting themselves and each other.

 

I also hope the oligopoly of the social media will somehow change. They have the power greater than of many countries, but don't really own up to the responsibilities coming with it. And I hope that the system, when a dictatorship that exports oil and gas literally gets even more money by entering into war due to the prices rocketing up, also somehow changes.

 

Many hopes and fears - but one thing is clear. We have entered a new phase of life, and no one knows where it will lead us to.

Fascinating reading Zarate and glad you are safe although must be heartbreaking to see what’s going on in Russia.

Thank you for sharing Zarate, glad to see you're safely out of there.

 

I broadly agree with most of what you've posted there. Especially that some of the sanctions are poorly targeted and hurting ordinary Russians in a way that they could never hurt Putin and his elites. If/when his regime falls, the West should do everything it can to help Russia's economy rebuild and get them inside the tent, but that is something I can't see happening, it'd be politically kinda hard to swallow even if it makes sense in the long run.

 

I fear it'll be a long road before Russia is made a better country though, there is no willingness in our international order to stop authoritarians, and while they control the airwaves in Russia, little will change.

 

Zelensky's speeches to various national and international parliaments have been great in this regard, chastising the West for enabling Russia because of 'business' (particularly Germany with its reliance on Russian gas). Will that rhetoric change anything? Doubtful in the short term, but at least someone now considered a respected political leader is saying it.

 

Though I also wonder if Zelensky will now accept peace terms that return Ukraine to the status quo because at least his people will no longer be dying, a tough choice and I wish him well at the negotiating table.

Glad u got out Zarate, and I hope it all works out for you. I don't disagree with anything you say, and I am sorry ordinary Russians will be suffering. We all will to a degree, life is going to get harder. But not as much as it is for Ukranians are right now.

 

Putin can make things less bad, let's hope he is willing now...

Putin does a Nuremburg style rally against the "Nazis" with about a million Russian flags and creepy 'Z' symbols everywhere. Would be funny if not so tragic just how batshit this man is....

Hi guys,

 

It's been a huge while since I actively posted anywhere on here, but since I've been talking to many of you, I hope you won't mind if I squeeze in a thought or two.

 

Right now I'm in Turkey, I fled Russia the day before yesterday and moving to Mexico tomorrow. I bought the tickets on 4th of March, when Parliament was rumoured to claim a martial law, but instead voted for a set of very repressing laws about the "fakes" of this "special operation". Since I can be quite easily put into the action of those laws, the decision was made. And the next day the flats of tens of my acquaintances got searched by the cops, some of them got detained, accused of "false terrorism calls". I was happy to wake up by myself but moved my laptop and money to the other place the same day. Now I feel free and relieved.

 

Hey - thanks for posting, a really interesting (albeit concerning) read and very good to get ur perspective on this war. It looks like a significant number of those who can have already started to get out of Russia while they are still able to. Glad to hear that you are ok even if you have had your own life turned upside-down by all of this.

 

I hope once I can come back and restore my country, as an independent - but friendly and peaceful state for everybody.

 

That is ultimately what everyone, including the people of Russia want. Мир да пребудет с вами.

 

Sadly the talks look like failing or stalling, we've even had Russian troops opening fire on a peaceful crowd in Kherson this morning, but we're starting to get some counter-offensives from the Ukranians today:

 

@1505876628823588867

 

Meanwhile 'the Purge' continues in Russia, Marina Ovsyannikova was apparently a 'British Spy', uh huh. Sure..

 

@1505859269522079746

They seem to really hate the British at the moment which is ironic because of our cosy cosy involvement with Russian oligarchs and the Brexit vote. Maybe Putin sees betrayal and guess we'll be high up on Putin's nuke list. Worse places morally to be.

 

 

Thank you guys for the kind words, now I’m in Mexico and planning the further steps for the time being.

 

It is interesting that you mention Brexit, as the Russian public perception of this war reminds me of the evil twin of the UK public perception of Brexit. Literally the older demographics gets — the likelier it is to meet a supporter of this war. So older generation literally robs the younger one of a decent future with nice perspectives.

 

That said, everyone should take any news on public support of this war with the greatest precaution: the amount of people who agree to answer fell by three times, and obviously those who stay on the line are far more likely to get the right answers for the propaganda machine.

 

And yes, Ukraine is holding greatly against pretty much the biggest army in the world, and the time is in its favour, as Putin’s resources are draining and Ukraine consistently gets the military and humanitarian support from all over the world.

Russia's army might be at an advantage having advanced weapons and military power (boys and their toys, am i right?) but when it comes to people behind it, they are complete amateurs with close to zero training. It's all good in theory but when it comes to action, the army is a complete joke and the majority of people try to avoid it by any means necessary (myself included, successfully, thank f*** for that). It's literally 1 year of only peeling potatoes and running degrading errands for officers of higher ranks while getting bullied by their older peers. Most have never even held a gun.

 

Most of the stories about how Russia is so strong when it comes to military, are from the WWII days. But those generations have already pretty much perished and back then there was an actually strong anti-fascist ideology to stand behind and support. The 9th May parade is coming and it will be a complete and utter joke as usual, now with an added layer (or a 100) of hypocrisy and 'Z'wastikas everywhere (they are already plastered all over the country with many official government organisations changing their names or slogans to include it). Younger people are far less likely to want to give their lives to a country that does nothing for its citizens especially fighting against Ukrainians who were always the closest friends with Russia for years and years prior to this and even after 2014 (just look at Eurovision televoting results).

 

That's me trying to convince myself that Russia will spectacularly lose this fight and I hope I'm right.

Russia's military reputation isn't really based on WWII. No disrespect to those that fought but militarily they were inept during Barbarossa and their drive on Berlin was fueled by wave upon wave of brave young men and women. Their tactic then was one of numbers and the Eastern front really became a war of attrition that the Wehrmacht (who were unquestionably the most capable army in the world in 1941) simply couldn't keep pace with.

 

Their reputation, in modern terms, has far more to do with the Cold War. In practically every war game played out during the 70s/80s the Warsaw Pact steamrolled through Europe obliterating the NATO armies, whose doctrine was to respond with a nuclear strike. In any objective sense the West always lost. The Soviet army was exceptional then.

 

However, Afghanistan broke that somewhat and Georgia, then Syria proved their decline. And for all their supposed hi-tech equipment, they've not been able to afford mass production or risk losing the handful they have. Hence the outdated equipment we keep seeing on tv.

 

The Russian military has been a paper tiger for about 30 years. It's only their nuclear deterrent that makes them strong

Edited March 23, 20223 yr by Severin

^ I wouldn’t be so sure even about the nuclear equipment to be honest and thankfully! ~Some~ of the rockets can fly and even to the ordered destination, but apparently most of them will get stuck or won’t reach the target.

 

I really hope we won’t actually witness the state of those rockets at all though.

 

PS: hi Pavel, I hope you are fine too!

I had been wondering how you were doing Arrs - glad to hear you managed to make it out.

Utterly disgusted reading about what Russian invaders did to civilians in Bucha. How can someone be so evil? The lack of empathy is scary.

These people unfortunately have the power to do whatever they like with no retribution right now :(

Edited April 5, 20223 yr by Dobbo.

I am listening to the Russnazi response at the UN and it’s the most unhinged and untruthful statement made in public history.

 

It is abhorrent. This Russnazi should be expelled from the UN immediately and can be first in the dock at the war crimes tribunal.

 

Hes now trying to blame Bucha on the Ukrainians. This man is making me feel unholy amounts of rage.

 

 

 

Every single member of this regime and their henchmen should be locked in a dark, damp cell for the rest of their lives

Utterly disgusted reading about what Russian invaders did to civilians in Bucha. How can someone be so evil? The lack of empathy is scary.

 

That crazy foreign minister basically said they could nuke USA's military bases with impunity, as the US values lives far more than Russia does, and would not escalate to a full nuclear war because of the casualties.

 

The Russian fash regime does not care about human lives.

 

That poor dog, lying down by his owner's side :( His owner was shot dead by the war criminals.

Not that it makes them any less evil, but human history.... When you've seen what people are easily led to believe in, and commit atrocities as a result of, it comes as no shock to oldies like me. I didn't get this cynical about human nature by accident, just watching the news for 55 years will do it. I grew up with Vietnam a long-running saga, the IRA, living with bombs planted in Bournemouth and Singapore and endless re-runs of 2 recent World Wars on TV, and it's been war after war ever since. I understand how shocking it is to watch people still being evil when you are seeing it happen on a daily basis for the first time, cos that was me Young Me once. Don't stop being shocked and angry about it either, cos you can become numb to it from year after endless year of the same headlines, just to get by in life.

 

On the plus side, everybody knows everything Hilary Clinton and others said about Putin was spot on 100% true and that fact alone should put a firm jolt into anyone living in denial thanks to propaganda planted by Putin. They may still believe the crap but they wont be able to argue anything when the response is "so you support a mass murderer then?". Let's see Trump lie his way out of that as his begging Russia for help speech is replayed. And people generally have woken up to the fact that you can't beat evil by ignoring it and giving it shitloads of cash and business deals and cross your fingers that it will learn to be bloody wonderful by getting rich. Rich does not equal being wonderful to fellow human beings. It CAN do, but by and large it doesn't apply to politics.

Excellent post and completely get that standpoint re the first paragraph.