And now the Delta Plus variant, a further mutation to the Delta variant which has arrived in the UK, nothing has been confirmed yet as to how dangerous it is to vaccinated people but it could and in my opinion, should, put back full reopening and masks/distancing easing even further.

 

Just out of interest, what do you actually expect should have to happen before restrictions can be lifted?

Edited June 24, 20214 yr by T Boy

Starting to lose my mind now, honestly if it turns out we're going to be in lockdown again this winter it's going to be like "why bother?" :(

Just to bring some hope in - we know that both AZ and Pfizer vaccines are >90% effective at preventing hospitalisation even against the Delta variant, and that there are increasing amounts of treatments being developed to help ppl recover even if they do end up there.. so deaths will continue to fall even if we do move to Step 4 (full reopening) which I fully expect us to do on 19th July. Even with a massive increase in cases we haven't really (even though there is a lag) seen a comparable increase in deaths.

 

I don't get the whole laissez-faire 'variants will get through anyway' stuff from Rooney - many other countries, some of which are literally on our doorstep have managed to prevent such variants making it through by adopting effective test/track/isolate programmes until such time as vaccination rates are high enough to reduce R to below 1 and protect the most vulnerable. For the record I thought 21st June was optimistic and that it would be delayed by a few weeks to allow for all >50s to get double-jabbed and all >18s to be offered 1 injection, as well as breaking the chain of transmission through the schools breaking for the summer; however letting the variant through has made it even more critical that we step up vaccine rollout in these 4 weeks. My main concern post-19 July is mainly the huge economic inequalities that exist within the UK and how that fractures the vaccine coverage across the UK (less takeup in less affluent areas) and allows isolated severe outbreaks to persist this year in less affluent parts of the UK, themselves already more prone to being badly affected by the virus.

Just out of interest, what do you actually expect should have to happen before restrictions can be lifted?

 

We get more information about this new delta plus variant vs vaccines.

 

Most restrictions have been lifted anyway with regards to going to pubs/restaurants, meeting family members and friends...

We get more information about this new delta plus variant vs vaccines.

 

Most restrictions have been lifted anyway with regards to going to pubs/restaurants, meeting family members and friends...

 

But if we wait for more information about every variant, we’ll never get there. Once we know about Delta plus, there will be another variant concerning you. covid isn’t ever going away for good.

 

Personally, I’m happy with what we have right now but I’d love to go to a club again one day or just meet up with more than five people. I’d like my workplace back to normal, to have a classroom back and be able to do the fun activities rather than just the stressful ones. I’d also love to not hear my mum and dad going down the conspiracy route. I’d like all these things as soon as we can get them.

Just to bring some hope in - we know that both AZ and Pfizer vaccines are >90% effective at preventing hospitalisation even against the Delta variant, and that there are increasing amounts of treatments being developed to help ppl recover even if they do end up there.. so deaths will continue to fall even if we do move to Step 4 (full reopening) which I fully expect us to do on 19th July. Even with a massive increase in cases we haven't really (even though there is a lag) seen a comparable increase in deaths.

 

I don't get the whole laissez-faire 'variants will get through anyway' stuff from Rooney - many other countries, some of which are literally on our doorstep have managed to prevent such variants making it through by adopting effective test/track/isolate programmes until such time as vaccination rates are high enough to reduce R to below 1 and protect the most vulnerable. For the record I thought 21st June was optimistic and that it would be delayed by a few weeks to allow for all >50s to get double-jabbed and all >18s to be offered 1 injection, as well as breaking the chain of transmission through the schools breaking for the summer; however letting the variant through has made it even more critical that we step up vaccine rollout in these 4 weeks. My main concern post-19 July is mainly the huge economic inequalities that exist within the UK and how that fractures the vaccine coverage across the UK (less takeup in less affluent areas) and allows isolated severe outbreaks to persist this year in less affluent parts of the UK, themselves already more prone to being badly affected by the virus.

 

While I take your point, the variants will get through, the virus still gets through unless you have a complete closed door policy. The key is to control when it takes a hold. Every country is going to have an exit wave, the good news is the link between hospitalisations has been severely weakened with the vaccines so the strain on the NHS is likely to be less. But there are still millions of people not vaccinated who have been offered a vaccine. Our R was well below 1 in April and look where we are now - like I said, I suspect other countries in Europe and the US/Canada will go through the exact same pattern we are in, we're just 2 months ahead of everyone.

I think that a 4th wave will hit (Spanish strain was wave 2 then Alpha was wave 3 for the continent) the continent but I am not so sure it’ll hit quite as hard. It’s gonna hit us at the peak of summer and which is probably the best time for it to hit as the weather will be lush, we’re all gonna be outdoors where it don’t spread quite as well and we’re gonna be in a better position vax wise than the UK was at the start of its Delta wave (according to some forecasts). That and a drastically different testing strategy I think most of us will make it through. Of course this is 30+ countries and there will be some places where it will run rampant and there will be many who contain it fairly well.

 

 

I’m just hoping that by the time we hit sept we don’t forget the lessons from this third wave.

I think that a 4th wave will hit (Spanish strain was wave 2 then Alpha was wave 3 for the continent) the continent but I am not so sure it’ll hit quite as hard. It’s gonna hit us at the peak of summer and which is probably the best time for it to hit as the weather will be lush, we’re all gonna be outdoors where it don’t spread quite as well and we’re gonna be in a better position vax wise than the UK was at the start of its Delta wave (according to some forecasts). That and a drastically different testing strategy I think most of us will make it through. Of course this is 30+ countries and there will be some places where it will run rampant and there will be many who contain it fairly well.

I’m just hoping that by the time we hit sept we don’t forget the lessons from this third wave.

 

I think that's a fairly solid assessment. It's a race with the jabs, which is why I completely get Germany's approach. However the desperation appears to be kicking in now from a tourism aspect, so I suspect come the end of July it will be a free for all with UK citizens though. The real positive news here is hospitalisations do appear to be levelling off, which is great with the levels of vaccination we have. So even if we are a bit of a pilot, it's a really good sign that while infections are high the link to hospitalisations and death is severely weakened which puts us in good stead.

I would agree. You can see it running through Portugal, Spain And southern France. All of whom threw doors open to Brits. Central And East are seeing much lower rates And kept Brits out/weren’t desirable destinations for Brits. I think the problem isn’t so much Brits being let in to many of these places it’s their citizens returning. Half of Germany is in Mallorca for at least a week in the summer and now it’s on your green list that is our weakest point (from a German perspective)

 

Also agree with your second point too. I keep an eye on the Scottish numbers And the only saving grace is the hospitalisations aren’t yet tracking up too. But I’m still waiting for that to fully shake out yet. Younger folks are the majority of the cases and their hospitalisation rates aren’t anywhere near as high. BUT vaccines seem to be keeping it at bay in older age groups that are fully vax and that is a huge sigh of relief. Now it’s all about trying to hold the floodgates shut for as long as is humanly possible to get the vax rates up. The variant will become dominant, that’s just gonna happen. But the longer we can hold off the smaller our 4th wave is I reckon.

I would agree. You can see it running through Portugal, Spain And southern France. All of whom threw doors open to Brits. Central And East are seeing much lower rates And kept Brits out/weren’t desirable destinations for Brits. I think the problem isn’t so much Brits being let in to many of these places it’s their citizens returning. Half of Germany is in Mallorca for at least a week in the summer and now it’s on your green list that is our weakest point (from a German perspective)

 

Also agree with your second point too. I keep an eye on the Scottish numbers And the only saving grace is the hospitalisations aren’t yet tracking up too. But I’m still waiting for that to fully shake out yet. Younger folks are the majority of the cases and their hospitalisation rates aren’t anywhere near as high. BUT vaccines seem to be keeping it at bay in older age groups that are fully vax and that is a huge sigh of relief. Now it’s all about trying to hold the floodgates shut for as long as is humanly possible to get the vax rates up. The variant will become dominant, that’s just gonna happen. But the longer we can hold off the smaller our 4th wave is I reckon.

 

Totally - I watched a news report earlier from Ibiza and they were literally begging for Brits back. This is how Britain got in such a mess last autumn from Spain. The reality is the Delta variant is going to run rapid in Europe regardless, but it would be so much easier to control in 6-8 weeks with some more vaccine protection. I get the need to go on holiday and visit friends, family etc. but unless you're double vaccinated it's so risky.

 

This is what concerns me for Europe slightly - in lots of European countries the hesitancy is far greater, I know France is always used as the example. It does look as if the vaccines are really helping against hospitalisations, as we have so many of the vulnerable and more susepticle protected but there are some countries which don't have the level of take-up and likely never will (France being a great example).

I completely agree. I’m itching for a hol but i ain’t leaving Berlin until im double jagged. Ok, the capital region because I’ve already left the city 🤣

 

At the moment there’s a lot of individualistic thinking at the moment, especially in the UK which has always been quite an individualistic country, and people are going on holiday because they want normal consequences be damned. You could see it with folks going wild when the pubs opened or with the Scottish invasion of London.

 

Yeah the take up rate in the UK has been unreal. I do think that some of the hesitancy is overblown by the tabloids, especially with the stream of bad press about AZ. The vaccines working and some good news about efficacy against delta will help to rehabilitate the vaccines in some populations. So far in Germany the average for 60+ is 60% fully vax and 80% one dose. For the 18-59 the rates are 28% and about 48% respectively but our priority grouping only fell away on the 7th of June so that’s already a solid take up for that age group. These are the stats I have to hand, but the 60+ number is higher than the survey stats suggested they would be. So maybe the rates europe wide will end up being higher than we expect.

 

If I remember rightly the uk take up has beat expectations and survey suggested attitudes. I do agree I think some states will be a little lower but peer pressure and fully vax meaning you don’t need to quarantine after travel and don’t need to test to do shit should push the rates high enough for heard immunity

This is twice in as many days we’ve been in complete agreement Roo. Getting concerned :lol:

I completely agree. I’m itching for a hol but i ain’t leaving Berlin until im double jagged. Ok, the capital region because I’ve already left the city 🤣

 

At the moment there’s a lot of individualistic thinking at the moment, especially in the UK which has always been quite an individualistic country, and people are going on holiday because they want normal consequences be damned. You could see it with folks going wild when the pubs opened or with the Scottish invasion of London.

 

Yeah the take up rate in the UK has been unreal. I do think that some of the hesitancy is overblown by the tabloids, especially with the stream of bad press about AZ. The vaccines working and some good news about efficacy against delta will help to rehabilitate the vaccines in some populations. So far in Germany the average for 60+ is 60% fully vax and 80% one dose. For the 18-59 the rates are 28% and about 48% respectively but our priority grouping only fell away on the 7th of June so that’s already a solid take up for that age group. These are the stats I have to hand, but the 60+ number is higher than the survey stats suggested they would be. So maybe the rates europe wide will end up being higher than we expect.

 

If I remember rightly the uk take up has beat expectations and survey suggested attitudes. I do agree I think some states will be a little lower but peer pressure and fully vax meaning you don’t need to quarantine after travel and don’t need to test to do shit should push the rates high enough for heard immunity

 

I think Germany appears to have a really string take-up, but I remain less convinced elsewhere. Certainly France rushing to jab 11-17 year olds makes me concerned, as like the US have done, they've gone in to these groups because it's unlikely the take-up in the general population will be high enough. The UK has done really well and even though some of the adverts have been cringe, I do believe they have been effective. A lot of this of course is to do with the NHS, rather than the Government. But certainly I am sure the UK will be the highest, or one of the highest states in terms of vaccine take-up based on all the data we know so far. It's a good pilot, but it really does show the virus will still come for the vulnerbale as not convinced we will get to herd immunity with adults alone, suspect we will go 16-17 year olds too.

 

This is twice in as many days we’ve been in complete agreement Roo. Getting concerned :lol:

 

I know, shocking isn't it :lol:

 

All inland restrictions being lifted here in Iceland as of midnight tonight - which means club can be open until 4.30! Although I don't quite have the stamina for that now at 34. :lol:

 

We're closing in on 90% of the adult population having had at least one shot so I can't say I'm suprised, and were on about 60% for both shots - uptake has been high.

 

I think we're the first in Europe to lift everything inland

Edited June 25, 20214 yr by mald487

I think Germany appears to have a really string take-up, but I remain less convinced elsewhere. Certainly France rushing to jab 11-17 year olds makes me concerned, as like the US have done, they've gone in to these groups because it's unlikely the take-up in the general population will be high enough. The UK has done really well and Teven though some of the adverts have been cringe, I do believe they have been effective. A lot of this of course is to do with the NHS, rather than the Government. But certainly I am sure the UK will be the highest, or one of the highest states in terms of vaccine take-up based on all the data we know so far. It's a good pilot, but it really does show the virus will still come for the vulnerbale as not convinced we will get to herd immunity with adults alone, suspect we will go 16-17 year olds too.

I know, shocking isn't it :lol:

 

And those Youtube videos from/sponsored by the NHS about the vaccine which appear on the front page too, one was apparently a 'debate' about 'is the vaccine the key to getting back to football matches'. Didn't watch the video but the 'debate' was obviously biased :lol: But if it helped increase vaccine uptake, then that's good.

Edited June 25, 20214 yr by sn👠ke

So I think I have Delta variant Covid, but everything is so utterly confusing, it's no wonder the whole track & trace thing is shite and it spreads so much. I did two home testing lateral flow tests which both came back positive, upon reporting one of them I got one text message telling me I need to book a PCR test to get this confirmed, and another telling me I was positive and I need to report the result with a code to do so. This morning I've received the same message with the same code but there's nothing to indicate it's related to the PCR test I went to take. I've put the code into the app anyway, and it just tells me I now need to isolate for the next 10 days (end of Mon 5th) and gives no option or ability to change based on the actual self-isolation rules of 10 full days after developing symptoms. That was Wednesday morning, so should be end of Sat 3rd. Will I get an actual call from someone? Can I still be checked up on on a day after my isolation period is supposed to end? Also, without knowing when I developed symptoms how does it know how far to trace my app back for contact tracing?

 

The government really need to be promoting the symptoms of delta far more as it is completely different from what we've spent the last few months being told. Every morning I just wake up feeling like I've got a hangover and my hayfever is a bit worse than normal, which is what the two others I know who've had it have said, no cough, fever or affects of smell/taste

Edited June 26, 20214 yr by RabbitFurCoat

I hope you have a swift and easy recovery RFC!!!

 

 

 

 

Today we added Portugal to the Variant list and they’ve just showed the Portuguese health minster on tv throwing the Brits under the bus. “If we knew then what we know now then we would have acted differently” in terms of letting the Brits in without Quarantine or question

Basically what he really means is the tourist lobby groups told me to shut my mouth to get a summer season and now the shit has hit the proverbial fan I’m back tracking!

So what's going on in Scotland? 200%+ increase in cases vs a week ago. The growth is large in England and Wales still but not at Scotland levels.

 

Is it a consequense of football fans going mental for a couple of weeks? Or is it to do with Scotland have had lower levels of infections so have less natural immunity to that of England and Wales?

 

Australia look to be on the brink of a national outbreak too and they have nowhere near the same vaccine levels as Europe and the US.

Honestly cannot believe how horrific it has gotten back home so quickly. Like Dundee is sitting with a case rate of over 650. Thats ridiculous. And Boris is having the audacity to moan that the EU shouldn't be trying to keep Brits out? Nah f*** that, seal the f***ing borders.

 

The Football has defo not helped. The fact that you can just go an do high risk activities without demonstrating your covid status is a factor too. Ultimately it is the same problem all over the UK, lockdown fatigue and selfishness setting is setting in. The entitled pricks of the world demanding to go down the pub because thats their god given right. Interesting it is finally starting to hit Wales now too driven by little England aka Flintshire & Wrexham (I say that as someone who has family who live in that area purely because it is more affordable than Chester). There was a lot of anecdotal reports I heard about the sheer volume of English tourists in Scotland and there is some that suspect that this wave was seeded by these visitors, much like Wave 2 in Scotland was seeded by tourists after Scotland achieved near elimination status last summer.

 

 

Portugal have put blocks up for unvax Brits and the Spanish are now demanding a PCR test but tbh that is weak and nothing. I suspect the Spanish will be brought into line when Germany threatens to blacklist the entire country (as we have just done to Portugal) including Mallorca. Given that the Germans are more important than the English to the Mallorcan economy, that should sharpen some minds in Madrid.

 

 

India, having cried loud enough about Variants to have their names changed, are now crying about Vaccine Passports and their locally produced version of the AZ not being a recognised vaccine under the EU scheme. To that I have to ask, where the f*** they think they are going to be going? Indian citizens who are resident in the EU are allowed in anyway as this is just about tourists but right now given the situation on the ground in India what sane country would want any Indian Tourists at the moment?

 

 

Worried about my friends in Australia tbh, most of them haven't done anything longer than a weekend in Quarantine and the vax rates their are pathetic.