Posted October 26, 20213 yr formerly titled "How many Christmas songs will we get in the chart this year?", that will remain the main focus of the poll but this thread is also to be used for any other predictions of Christmas songs. Let's start with where is Mariah going to end up on Spotify on the November 1st update? (last year: #54; 102,703 streams) -x- It's two months away from the "most wonderful time of the year" or more accurately the Silly Season when Christmas songs take over the official chart and chart runs of normal songs get ruined. The biggest week for Christmas songs is likely to be the chart announced on New Years Eve, which will account for both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day streaming - the two biggest days for streaming of the year. As we saw last year, Christmas Day streams alone is enough for a complete domination of Christmas songs (alongside the comparatively few streams they got throughout the rest of that week). This year we've got the added bonus of Christmas Eve being in the same chart week. Last year the effect also came bigger earlier than ever perhaps due to the pandemic. Will we see a similar effect this year or are we going back to normality? The vast majority of Christmas songs are also subject to ACR for the entirety of their run, due to rules excluding songs older than 3 years from getting a reset. However as we've seen before, this will not stop the regulars from cropping up in the chart. Last year's perfect storm produced this result. W/E: T10 T20 T40 T75 T100 19/11: 00 00 00 01 02 26/11: 00 00 01 03 08 03/12: 00 02 06 15 20 10/12: 03 10 21 30 36 17/12: 07 13 22 34 49 24/12: 06 13 23 35 50 31/12: 08 16 26 44 58 07/01: 09 16 28 46 59 And these songs were in the final chart 01 03 97 Wham! ~ Last Christmas 02 02 107 Mariah Carey ~ All I Want For Christmas Is You 03 04 06 Jess Glynne ~ This Christmas 04 08 07 Justin Bieber ~ Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 05 06 111 The Pogues ~ Fairytale Of New York (feat. Kirsty MacColl) 06 07 78 Shakin' Stevens ~ Merry Christmas Everyone 07 09 87 Band Aid ~ Do They Know It's Christmas? 08 10 42 Elton John ~ Step Into Christmas 10 12 40 Michael Bublé ~ It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas 11 11 62 Chris Rea ~ Driving Home For Christmas 12 13 83 Wizzard ~ I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday 15 16 54 Brenda Lee ~ Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 16 14 23 Ariana Grande ~ Santa Tell Me 17 15 25 Kelly Clarkson ~ Underneath the Tree 18 17 108 Slade ~ Merry Xmas Everybody 19 21 74 John & Yoko and the Plastic Ono Band with the Harlem Community Choir ~ Happy Xmas (War Is Over) 21 18 29 Leona Lewis ~ One More Sleep 23 23 41 Andy Williams ~ It's The Most Wonderful Time of the Year 24 25 20 Michael Bublé ~ Holly Jolly Christmas 25 26 38 Paul McCartney ~ Wonderful Christmastime 27 27 16 Bobby Helms ~ Jingle Bell Rock 30 29 28 Justin Bieber ~ Mistletoe 31 32 22 Kylie Minogue ~ Santa Baby 33 34 15 The Ronettes ~ Sleigh Ride 35 33 34 Coldplay ~ Christmas Lights 37 39 24 Dean Martin ~ Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! 39 42 12 Katy Perry ~ Cozy Little Christmas 40 44 10 José Feliciano ~ Feliz Navidad 49 52 45 Bing Crosby ~ White Christmas 50 48 05 Liam Payne ~ Naughty List (feat. Dixie D'Amelio) 51 51 04 Brett Elderedge ~ Baby It's Cold Outside (feat. Meghan Trainor) 53 47 08 Idina Menzel ~ Baby It's Cold Outside (feat. Michael Bublé) 55 53 11 Sam Smith ~ Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas 56 63 13 Nat "King" Cole ~ The Christmas Song 57 58 13 Darlene Love ~ Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) 58 55 17 Sia ~ Santa's Coming For Us 59 56 08 Frank Sinatra ~ Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! 64 61 05 Jamie Cullum ~ In The Bleak Midwinter 66 68 04 Dolly Parton and Michael Bublé ~ Cuddle Up, Cozy Down Christmas 67 62 25 Pretenders ~ 2000 Miles 69 69 10 Ellie Goulding ~ River 70 57 13 The Jackson 5 ~ Santa Claus Is Coming To Town 71 71 24 Mud ~ Lonely This Christmas 72 82 04 Sam Smith ~ The Lighthouse Keeper 73 70 05 Meghan Trainor ~ I'll Be Home 75 76 02 Carrie Underwood ~ Favourite Time Of Year 77 79 15 Elvis Presley ~ Blue Christmas 79 77 27 Jona Lewie ~ Stop The Cavalry 80 80 34 Boney M. ~ Mary's Boy Child/Oh My Lord 82 78 02 Sia ~ Snowman 83 RE 04 Taylor Swift ~ Christmas Tree Farm 84 83 14 Perry Como and The Fontane Sisters ~ It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas 87 85 03 Jessie J ~ Man With The Bag 88 86 02 Jonas Brothers ~ I Need You Christmas 89 94 04 Chuck Berry ~ Run Rudolph Run 92 96 16 Cliff Richard ~ Mistletoe and Wine 94 89 11 The Waitresses ~ Christmas Wrapping 96 98 12 Eartha Kitt ~ Santa Baby 97 NE 01 Stevie Wonder ~ What Christmas Means To Me
October 26, 20213 yr I was boring and voted for the same as last year. I think the general trend is still for Christmas songs to get bigger on streaming every year and the dates are slightly more favourable than last year. However the fact that there are more big Q4 releases than last year and we’re (hopefully) not going to be so mired in the pandemic might dampen the effect slightly.
October 26, 20213 yr Remember the tracking week this year everybody. The biggest 2 days (24th & 25th) will fall into the week after Xmas #1 week. For info. I'm going 30+ in the top 40 myself! Edited October 26, 20213 yr by Dobbo.
October 26, 20213 yr I think that the streaming numbers for Christmas songs will just grow and grow every year.
October 26, 20213 yr The Christmas Eve streams will be massive, and with that in the same tracking week as Christmas Day this year, I think we'll easily get more than 60 in the Top 100. I would say no more than 30 in the Top 40, as there was a bit of a gap to the next highest at #49 last year, so I think it'll mostly be the same songs but with the Amazon exclusives updated :rolleyes:
October 26, 20213 yr Author I’m gonna be bold too and predict over 30 this year. Agree with the rest of your post @jimwatts (over 60 top 100) but I think Bing Crosby would be able to make the top 40 this year with how the tracking week is and then we also have the new Sheeran Christmas song and probably something taking off on Tiktok like Snowman did last year but to a larger extent (or just Snowman being tiktoked again but into the top 40 this time) I’m also going to stick my neck out and say top 40 for Mariah on November 1st this year. Also worth noting Katy Perry won't be going top 40 this year as she'll be on perma-ACR from here on out, unless the song gets a sudden huge popularity boost.
October 26, 20213 yr Anyone have a definite list of Christmas songs that are on SCR? Any that are under 3 years old basically. From the above list, I think these are the only ones: 03 04 06 Jess Glynne ~ This Christmas 04 08 07 Justin Bieber ~ Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 50 48 05 Liam Payne ~ Naughty List (feat. Dixie D'Amelio) 64 61 05 Jamie Cullum ~ In The Bleak Midwinter 69 69 10 Ellie Goulding ~ River 72 82 04 Sam Smith ~ The Lighthouse Keeper 75 76 02 Carrie Underwood ~ Favourite Time Of Year 83 RE 04 Taylor Swift ~ Christmas Tree Farm 88 86 02 Jonas Brothers ~ I Need You Christmas All of those came out last year except River and Christmas Tree Farm. Jess, Justin, Jamie and Carrie were all Amazon exclusives.
October 26, 20213 yr Any that are under 3 years old basically. From the above list, I think these are the only ones: 03 04 06 Jess Glynne ~ This Christmas 04 08 07 Justin Bieber ~ Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 50 48 05 Liam Payne ~ Naughty List (feat. Dixie D'Amelio) 64 61 05 Jamie Cullum ~ In The Bleak Midwinter 69 69 10 Ellie Goulding ~ River 72 82 04 Sam Smith ~ The Lighthouse Keeper 75 76 02 Carrie Underwood ~ Favourite Time Of Year 83 RE 04 Taylor Swift ~ Christmas Tree Farm 88 86 02 Jonas Brothers ~ I Need You Christmas All of those came out last year except River and Christmas Tree Farm. Jess, Justin, Jamie and Carrie were all Amazon exclusives. Thanks! Really need ‘Christmas Tree Farm’ to move up the playlists this year!
October 27, 20213 yr I went with 30+ top 40 based on the 24th and 25th being taken into account. Can’t see a drop off for Christmas songs charting without added chart rules to restrict them. Also went 61-70 since we only just missed the 60 mark last year, though we are scraping the barrel for songs that will be on multiple playlists at that stage (as shown by some of the songs that scraped top 100 last year).
October 29, 20213 yr I suppose it depends on just how much of an impact lockdown had on Christmas music being so massive last year. There wasn't really that much of an increase in 2019 compared to 2018 iirc so I wonder if last year's huge spike was a bit of a fluke. I don't think Wham or Mariah will go #1 this year or re-break any streaming records tbh. The charts also seem a bit stronger than they did this time last year, Xmas music hardly had any competition, so that might then less songs in the top 40 maybe? Hoping for the opposite though I'm one of the few who thinks Xmas music only improves the quality of the chart year after year and its always so interesting to see just how dominant it will be
October 29, 20213 yr Author Mariah and Wham making official number one last year was definitely a fluke, I don’t see it being a yearly occurrence especially not this year when we have Ed and Adele around.
October 29, 20213 yr I’m more interested in long term chart trends to see what songs continue to do well or fade over the years with Xmas songs! So Mariah and Wham will appear next week in the top 200?
November 2, 20213 yr Author formerly titled "How many Christmas songs will we get in the chart this year?", that will remain the main focus of the poll but this thread is also to be used for any other predictions of Christmas songs. Let's start with where is Mariah going to end up on Spotify on the November 1st update? (last year: #54; 102,703 streams)#66, 83,982 streams quite significantly down surprisingly despite Mariah's big promo.
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