There's signs of a few more Lib-Lab stress areas than we've come to be used to on these results (Hull for example, where LDs are now dominant despite that areas' Brexity associations, I don't think it's even that important anymore) - but broadly the strategy of LDs in rural seats, Labour in urban on a two-pronged attack with the Greens muscling in where that makes more sense still looks workable without making it a formal pact, which I do think would harm its likelihood to succeed.

 

Definitely beginning to sense some voting patterns and imo this is where Labour the Lib Dems needs to be tactful and mindful over the next 24 months. Not sure going in to a solid election pact is the right move, but certainly where possible, but being realistic about those seats and throwing resource to wasted opportunities. If Labour want to govern, they are likely going to need at least one other parties support.

To clarify, I didn't mean a 'Conservative' country per se, but a small-c conservative country.

 

By and large, people in Britain have at least some traditional views, don't care a whole lot about the climate, recycling or minorities, do care about the Queen, celebrities, traditional values and capitalism as a default and required. English people especially, everyone of you commenting will probably know someone who is frightened by the prospect of one of the above changing, much less reversing or transforming completely into something new. The most you can hope for a lot of people is for something new to take up a slightly larger space out of the majority than it currently does, while leaving the majority unshifted in its dominance and absolute continued control.

 

Incidentally, Labour need to realise this if they ever want to get elected. They could do with also realising that they can say anything whatsoever to get elected and then don't need to stick to any of it once in the door. That would be a way to subtly introduce changes. Boris and co have shown that the way to not be bound by the rulebook is to simply not acknowledge it.

Those percentages are very promising that a progressive alliance could work in the event of a hung parliament (granted Starmer is really not the person I'd want to see lead that), great to see Lib Dem and Greens taking a fair few seats. Shame a lot of the pushback is kept to London (we always have the sense x B-) ), but still, let's not just be totally doom and gloom about everything. There's no way the Tories can spin this as a good result, despite how much their media mates seem to be trying. This is proof also that the longer Johnson stays in, the less popular he'll become.

 

Also had to let out a laugh at this coming up on Breaking News, dead cat strategy much? :lol: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61352174

 

My ward is still not confirmed yet, it'll most likely be Tory given how many leaflets I've had from them, but I did see a prediction on the Electoral Calculus that it could be close in my particular ward.

I checked the Woking situation a few days ago as I used to live there. One of the seats up for grabs was won by the Tories by just ten votes four years ago. The ward has been largely Lib Dem for over 30 years, so that should be a gain which would make the Lib Dems the largest group on the council. Further gains would be more difficult as the Tories are defending large majorities.

Well, I got that spectacularly wrong :lol: The Lib Dems gained four seats from the Tories with thumping majorities. The Tories lost all five seats they were defending (the other one went to an Independent). That means the Lib Dems are not just the largest party, they have an overall majority!

Honestly kind of appalled that the Tories were able to leave off their party leaflets that a) they represent the Conservative party and b) Boris Johnson is the party leader.

 

That should be fraud.

 

I don't think I have ever mentioned the party leader in any of my election leaflets? Why should I? He has never had any direct link to the council.

 

And yet, I won't downplay that Labour have things to fix, but these are good results for them, good results for the Greens and Lib Dems, and more importantly bad results for the Tories. Especially given the bad results for Labour from a year ago. It's the first nationwide election since the referendum where they are the most popular party (35%-30%, 2018's locals were 35-35, 2016's were 31-30, all others were Conservatives or someone else ahead) and they were defending more, the Tories were defending less, it would have been excessively hard for the Tories to lose more.

 

There was a lot of expectation management from the Tory media going on before the vote (ridiculous stuff like from The Telegraph predicting losing 800 seats when that wouldn't even be possible) and that seems to be driving what's leading this as 'not such a bad result for the Tories as expected' when really it's dire, they're losing on all fronts and on councils where they had claimed to be the new saviours. Partly indicative of the stuff that J00ps talks about above that even in an election where they are clearly the winner the media has started looking to Labour failings.

 

Overall the Labour picture outside London is pretty much holding steady and even advancing from what they had in 2018, which was a great result for them (which SHOULD take the wind out of this ridiculous 'long corbyn' line that Laura K seems to be peddling because it's precisely because he did great back then that Labour's gains don't look so significant on the face on it), if they'd matched 2021 instead, they'd be losing seats. They're up seats. If this continues into the next year of the electoral cycle, and there's no reason to believe cost of living will go away for the Conservatives, they will lose a LOT more on those locals.

 

We also have a Labour controlled council in Worthing - they had no councillors there five years ago - imagine a Labour south because there are signs that it's not only LDs who will gain from the collapse of the Blue Wall. There's lots of Labour successes around these results and it's been a long time since we had so many of those.

 

Labour have, almost unnoticed, been making steady progress in parts of the south coast of England for a little while. They have a decent chance of picking up a combined Worthing seat in the next election (assuming it is fought under revised boundaries) and could even win one of the Bournemouth seats.

I really hope we don't end up with a great alignment, as I don't want Tory mps in the north due to scabs! Get the evil Tories OUT!!!!

From Prof John Curtis:

"Trouble is outside of London actually Labour's vote is a little bit lower than it was in 2018, it hasn't done quite as well as Jeremy Corbyn did, and that's not only true of the votes but...Labour has made a slight net loss of seats outside London."

 

Can't see anything but a Conservative win at GE2024 sadly, but I've lost all hope in politics quite frankly and couldn't care less anymore. :(

Yup! Corbyn is an incredible leader and a true socialist. That's what people want, not mauldin centrist policies like what Rooney likes. Those policies are TORY policies.

Remember when all of the centrists kept telling us Labour should be 20 pointd ahead under Corbyn, and that they would be under a centrist?! Soo riddle me this: why are your centrists unable to match Corbyn's votes, and are back down to the numbers that your other centrists were pulling in before him?????? :thinking: :thinking: It's almost as if left wing policies are popular :thinking: But that can't be... The millionaire and billionaire media screamed and raged and laughed at Corbyn...

From Prof John Curtis:

Can't see anything but a Conservative win at GE2024 sadly, but I've lost all hope in politics quite frankly and couldn't care less anymore. :(

 

Think that is a unduly pessimistic view with the analysis by Curtice missing out anything about the cost of living crisis getting far far worse. And the public have very much fallen out of love with Johnson (not that myself and half the nation could stand him in the first place).

 

Any failures to claw back the 'red wall' will be matched by Southern wins by Labour/Lib Dem.

 

Tbh my biggest short term worry is about Starmer and 'beer gate'. Might have dug himself in a hole with that one.. if he is fined then he should resign which would make Johnson's clinging on with more dirt coming more untenable.

So London has cemented it's position as the party of the Londoners and the middle class, while the Tories hold on to working class areas all over the country.

 

Starmer should be quaking

Tory losses are close to 500. That is a truly terrible performance.

Tory losses are close to 500. That is a truly terrible performance.

 

Yes. Horrid. :cheer:

 

Glad to see them lose so many. Whilst I thought Labour would do better (they did have some really amazing results in some places), Lib Dems/Greens exceeded my expectations.

 

It'll be interesting to see if Lib Dems/Green party have a surge of support in the next GE. Although projecting GE results from local elections isn't easy given the voter turnout differences and the way people change their votes when it comes to picking their MPs.

Tory losses are close to 500. That is a truly terrible performance.

 

Incorrect - they are currently down 398 seats with only 4 seats to be declared so it will be around 400 which obviously isn’t good but not as dire as 500 unfortunately.

@1522602946386669568

 

@1522575404648775680

 

this IS terrible for the Tories and as ever, people (the Tory-compliant media) jumped to conclusions from the first overnight results and are trying to downplay their losses, which are about as terrible as local elections could get. If you say Labour can't win a general election like this, the Tories sure as hell can't, and they don't even have viable coalition partners.

I feel hopeful for the future of the UK for the first time in ages after these results. Maybe, just maybe we are escaping from almost far right populism. It was heartwarming too that a few openly trans councillors were elected in the current media climate too.

Edited May 7, 20223 yr by Smint

Incorrect - they are currently down 398 seats with only 4 seats to be declared so it will be around 400 which obviously isn’t good but not as dire as 500 unfortunately.

 

They're at -490 seats from what I can see overall (England, Wales & Scotland). A couple more councils still to declare in England, so they might lose a few more potentially.

 

 

They're at -490 seats from what I can see overall (England, Wales & Scotland). A couple more councils still to declare in England, so they might lose a few more potentially.

The BBC's figures and the Guardian's figures are very different. I don't yet know why. I've been using the BBC figures which do, indeed, show 490 net losses.

An interesting thing to note - the Social Democratic Party (SDP) picked up a council seat in Leeds. Think it’s their first direct win in an election for a long time.

From Prof John Curtis:

Can't see anything but a Conservative win at GE2024 sadly, but I've lost all hope in politics quite frankly and couldn't care less anymore. :(

 

GE24 will be like 1992 and the the tories will lose big time in 2029!