Jump to content

Padam Padam Week 4 Predictions 37 members have voted

  1. 1. How Will Things go on week 4.

    • It Will Climb
      18
    • It will Drop
      15
    • It will be a non mover
      4

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Featured Replies

But Kylie’s ended up lower pretty much every week in official chart than compared to the first look chart. Not sure how much the cassettes format will add in terms of sales but would be great to be proved wrong and see it increase its chart position again!

 

The only early boost she has had this week are whatever CDs are leftover plus the higher Friday downloads due to 3 padams in top 10.

 

The first couple of weeks where she had the drop after the first look, Kylie had massive dips over the weekend in streaming compared to other artists around her. So far this weekend gone she actually managed to increase streaming numbers on Saturdays streams, so if Sundays streams we see some more consistency then we are unlikely to see the 5 place drop from Sunday first look to Mondays update.

 

Jay is 100% right in last weeks figures, they have shown consistency, where she would have been first look to where she would have ended up in the charts, last weeks boost was due to CDs.

 

Lets see what today brings but I cant see Kylie dropping 5 places in this weeks update.

 

Just Carol Honey ❤️

  • Replies 78
  • Views 3.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I'll predict... a non-mover! :drama:

Well so far this is coming true...

 

 

WEEK 4:

 

Sunday 11th June - first look

#10

 

Monday 12th June - midweek

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 7,966

CD Sales: 98

Download Sales: 1,890

Streaming Sales: 5,978

 

The gap between the positions in today's midweeks is so tight:

 

454 behind #9

304 behind #10

237 behind #11

31 ahead of #13

70 ahead of #14

278 ahead of #15

425 ahead of #16

 

It should be noted that video streaming sales appear to be almost entirely missing from the midweeks so far (Kylie has 0 sales from video streaming), so today's midweeks aren't entirely accurate. :thinking: Hopefully tomorrow will give us a clearer picture.

 

---------------------

 

Week 1-3 data can be found here: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...t&p=7364356

The gap between the positions in today's midweeks is so tight:

 

454 behind #9

304 behind #10

237 behind #11

31 ahead of #13

70 ahead of #14

278 ahead of #15

425 ahead of #16

 

It should be noted that video streaming sales appear to be almost entirely missing from the midweeks so far (Kylie has 0 sales from video streaming), so today's midweeks aren't entirely accurate. :thinking: Hopefully tomorrow will give us a clearer picture.

 

So close!

 

Also it’s odd that some have video streams added (1.2k for Miley, 680 Ellie/Calvin etc., and then multiple others are on 0, guessing 99.9% of video streams come from YT so odd that some have reported and others have not).

This is interesting and very rare data to be able to share; these are the breakdowns for Sunday... and even some Saturday info!

 

In the forthcoming Friday 16th June chart, I think she could be on track to exceed 3,000 downloads. I assume her streaming would be higher than last Friday's 15,672 figure. So I'm thinking that she should end up with well over 19,000 sales from downloads/streams, before taking into account more CD sales and possible cassette sales. It's impossible to predict how many CDs will get added in the coming days (the increase on Monday was 0, but no work/dispatching takes place on Sunday), and we don't know yet how many cassettes she's sold... or even if they'll definitely be included this week!

 

 

WEEK 4:

 

Saturday 10th June (#1: Sex Pistols / #2: BTS)

#3

Overall Sales: 1,133

Pure Sales: 1,133 (CD+Download Sales, combined)

 

Sunday 11th June - first look

#10 (-7)

Overall Sales: 4,835 (+3,702)

CD Sales: 98

Download Sales: 1,496

Pure Sales: 1,594 (+461 // CD+Download Sales, combined)

Streaming Sales: 3,241

 

Monday 12th June - midweek (Missing Data: Apple Music, YouTube)

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 7,966 (+3,131)

CD Sales: 98 (±0)

Download Sales: 1,890 (+394)

Streaming Sales: 5,978 (+2,737)

 

---------------------

 

Week 1-3 data can be found here: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...t&p=7364356

Very interesting.

 

That Sunday breakdown includes 3241 streaming sales…which looks to me that some Saturday streaming is included, though of course the Friday streams are usually higher.

 

Fingers crossed loads of CD were despatched yesterday….last weeks CD data was odd, it never really grew much throughout the week from the initial Monday midweek. Hopefully the cassette sales are sizeable, whenever they’re reported!

Edited by aeroco

WEEK 4:

 

Saturday 10th June (#1: Sex Pistols / #2: BTS)

#3

Overall Sales: 1,133

Pure Sales: 1,133 (CD+Download Sales, combined)

 

Sunday 11th June - first look

#10 (-7)

Overall Sales: 4,835 (+3,702)

CD Sales: 98

Download Sales: 1,496

Pure Sales: 1,594 (+461 // CD+Download Sales, combined)

Streaming Sales: 3,241

 

Monday 12th June - midweek (Missing Data: Apple Music, YouTube)

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 7,966 (+3,131)

CD Sales: 98 (±0)

Download Sales: 1,890 (+394)

Streaming Sales: 5,978 (+2,737)

 

Tuesday 13th June - midweek

#13 (-1)

Overall Sales: 11,280 (+3,314)

CD Sales: 184 (+86)

Download Sales: 2,259 (+369)

Streaming Sales: 8,837 (+2,859)

 

---------------------

 

Comparing today's midweeks with last Tuesday's:

 

Tuesday 6th June - midweek

#10

Overall Sales: 10,882

CD Sales: 2,277

Download Sales: 1,351

Streaming Sales: 7,254

 

Tuesday 13th June - midweek

#13 (-3)

Overall Sales: 11,280 (+398)

CD Sales: 184 (-2,093)

Download Sales: 2,259 (+908)

Streaming Sales: 8,837 (+1,583)

 

Despite being 3 places lower than last Tuesday, the streaming is significantly up this week, and so are the downloads! It's actually sold a bit more to be midweek #13 today than midweek #10 required last Tuesday.

 

If only the CD had come out this week instead x

 

---------------------

 

The rest of the Week 1-3 data can be found here: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...t&p=7364356

 

swhXvSu.gif

They always do a 5k run of Kylie single physicals (this seems to have been the case even in the Parlophone days).

 

Considering how quickly they sold out and the fact they were limited to 2 per person I’m thinking the first drop of cassettes was around 1-1.5k? And maybe the same again now they’ve restocked them?

 

The success of the cassettes either caught them off guard or it was a quick turnaround job to throw them out for sale hence them being more limited than normal?

 

I don’t think they’ll be as popular as the CD but so many of the fanbase are invested in the fight for Top 10 that it could have encouraged more people to buy them?

 

Also pretty decent it’s almost achieved 200 CD sales in week 2, I was expecting hardly any to be sold after the first week.

  • Author
I see from the breakdown no cassettes are included so hopefully they can make the difference, Top 10 doesnt seem to happening this wee with how things are currently looking.
I see from the breakdown no cassettes are included so hopefully they can make the difference, Top 10 doesnt seem to happening this wee with how things are currently looking.

 

Right now she is only 600 from top 10. Her streaming is increasing and the cassettes haven't been added.

 

I didn't have hope earlier this week but I do think she could y'know.

Right now she is only 600 from top 10. Her streaming is increasing and the cassettes haven't been added.

 

I didn't have hope earlier this week but I do think she could y'know.

 

I’m the same - I really think she could do it this week, and we literally wont know until Friday due to cassette sales only being reported the day before.

  • Author
From that point of view it does indeed look more positive, with cassettes included it probably is top 10 and with streaming increasing its very good, are the songs ahead of her that she is battling against (the ones closest to her) for top 10 also increasing?
From that point of view it does indeed look more positive, with cassettes included it probably is top 10 and with streaming increasing its very good, are the songs ahead of her that she is battling against (the ones closest to her) for top 10 also increasing?

 

I’ve just done a little bit of number crunching about Kylie’s sales this week.

 

These are her current positions:

 

#13 overall up to Tuesday’s chart (down from #12)

#13 overall on additional sales since the previous day

 

This means that the songs above Kylie are all pulling away from her, but she is pulling away from all of the songs below her - and therefore hopefully she shouldn’t fall below number #13 at any point this week (as long as she can continue to pull away from ‘UK Rap’).

 

At the current rate, I estimate that she would need the following:

 

250 cassette sales to overtake Hannah Laing to reach #12

1300 cassette sales to overtake Dave/Central Cee, Trojan Horse to reach #11

1350 cassette sales to overtake Loreen to reach #10

2400 cassette sales to overtake Rema to reach #9

 

So if Kylie can generate 1500 cassette sales in pre-orders, BMG should dispatch them on Thursday - if not, then save them until next week. Of course, the picture might change by the last update.

 

Overall Kylie is in the top 2 for downloads (I’ve not seen the figures for BTS) and top 3 for sales (I’ve not seen the figures for the Sex Pistols either).

 

In streaming ‘sales’, the picture is also looking very positive :

 

#17 overall on the week to date. This is up from #18 the previous day as Kylie has overtaken Lewis Capaldi.

#15 for streaming ‘sales’ since the previous day. ‘Padam Padam’ had a higher daily figure than both David Guetta and Dua Lipa, though she is unlikely to catch up with their weekly streaming figures before the end of the week - they had too good a head start

 

  • Author
It is possible that next week they could have something lined liked remixes or a bundle and hold the cassettes back to help give it a stronger chance.

WEEK 4:

 

Saturday 10th June (#1: Sex Pistols / #2: BTS)

#3

Overall Sales: 1,133

Pure Sales: 1,133 (CD+Download Sales, combined)

 

Sunday 11th June - first look

#10 (-7)

Overall Sales: 4,835 (+3,702)

CD Sales: 98

Download Sales: 1,496

Pure Sales: 1,594 (+461 // CD+Download Sales, combined)

Streaming Sales: 3,241

 

Monday 12th June - midweek (Missing Data: Apple Music, YouTube)

#12 (-2)

Overall Sales: 7,966 (+3,131)

CD Sales: 98 (±0)

Download Sales: 1,890 (+394)

Streaming Sales: 5,978 (+2,737)

 

Tuesday 13th June - midweek

#13 (-1)

Overall Sales: 11,280 (+3,314)

CD Sales: 184 (+86)

Download Sales: 2,259 (+369)

Streaming Sales: 8,837 (+2,859)

 

Wednesday 14th June - midweek

#14 (-1)

Overall Sales: 13,724 (+2,444)

CD Sales: 246 (+62)

Download Sales: 2,646 (+387)

Streaming Sales: 10,832 (+1,995)

 

^ Streaming increase seems a bit low... missing data in today's mid perhaps?

 

---------------------

 

Wednesday comparisons:

 

Wednesday 7th June - midweek

#10 (=)

Overall Sales: 13,908

CD Sales: 2,293

Download Sales: 1,731

Streaming Sales: 9,884

 

Wednesday 14th June - midweek

#14 (-4)

Overall Sales: 13,724 (-184)

CD Sales: 246 (-2,047)

Download Sales: 2,646 (+915)

Streaming Sales: 10,832 (+948)

 

---------------------

 

Week 1-3 data: http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?s...t&p=7364356

Download Sales: 2,646 (+915)

 

I know the extended mix was released this week but impressed that downloads have grown!

 

Also this was just posted on the SH FB page - it’s gonna be a nail biter on Friday :lol:

 

There is missing data from a number of platforms for Tues including YouTube, Apple, and Spotify (when it shot back up to #31).

That definitely explains why the streaming increase today is quite low!

 

With the sales sooo close together from #10-#14, the data could make all the difference. Ultimately I'm trying not to be put off by the midweek positions, and keep everything crossed for Friday.

So when is Spotify data up to date until? I assumed it was up to date to Monday - but even then the increase seems low. I can’t help but think that Wednesday’s update still misses some of Monday’s data.

 

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

Recently Browsing 0

  • No registered users viewing this page.