I wouldn't use RealClearPolling/RealClearPolitics, quite apart from having a dodgy site that breaks when I maneuver around it they don't do even the bare minimum of filtering when it comes to dodgy polls, hence for the last couple of cycles they've had a Republican bias compared to other poll aggregators - hence every polling commentator with a Republican bias (especially those that like to pretend they're 'objective') uses them religiously. At least 538 does the bare minimum there. The NYT/Siena poll that has them both on 48 is worrying though, as that is pointing to a Harris loss.

 

Signs from early voting and limited polling on demographic breakdowns as such has me a bit more positive though, basically Republicans are early voting more than they did in 2020 and Democrats slightly less, yet the margins of party registrations are also roughly where they were in 2020 - and also independents (harder to poll), at least in states where you're automatically registered independent at 18, seem to be younger and therefore breaking for Harris more.

 

Anyway the supposedly liberal pro-democracy Washington Post is choosing not to endorse a candidate, so we know which winner the capital class want.

It will come down to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The poll trend in Michigan is worrying ngl :cry:

Trump's to lose - Rusdian propaganda and fascist populsr messaging cut through! Pipped to the post, if not a landslide :(

The closer it gets to E-day, the more convinced I am Kamala has this in the bag. Primarily because I don’t trust the polling at all, especially not the last few weeks. On top of that, I think the early voting and voter registration data isn’t reflecting A) the changes in how people are voting compared to 2020 (Dems less likely to vote early, Republicans earlier) and B) that Kamala is likely to win a higher proportion of Republicans and NPA’s than Trump. I think she wins all 7 swing states, comes within 1/2 points in Florida and 2/3 in Texas.

 

I’m just hoping against hope that Dan Osborn can pull of a surprise in Nebraska and/or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell or Corin Allred win in Florida/Texas.

 

That all being said, I have zero confidence in the strength of the US system to stand up to the crazy that’s going to come down the line when he loses. One key point from his Nazi greatest hits playlist from last night is the (implied) suggestion that Mike Johnson has “a little secret” to steal the election for him.

FULL. ON. FASCIST!!!!

 

A friend of mine hss fallen down the right wing bro hole and got updet when I called his faves fash, and could not be reasoned eith. Silence over Jan 6, just smirking, etc. But the far right bro voices normalise these rhibgs and repeat totsl hordeshit - hey, you're not fash, the Nazis were SOCIALIST, IT'S IN THE NSME!!!, snd the DEMOCRATS supported slsvery and lost the civil war, it's in the nsme - they're fash!!! -that they can't even see they've become fascist. I don't even thibk that total shitshow will have sunk his campaign.

Thst id what he tried lsst time with thr denste snd Pence, right, that "littlr secret"?

Republicans are definitely voting earlier but there is no reason at all why dems would be voting later

Dems voted by mail/in person early because of the pandemic (and associated messaging), with a lower election day turnout. I think that reverts to a more standard breakdown this time.

 

On the other hand, the Republicans voting early seemingly are high-propensity voters, but that may well have the impact of reducing their election day turnout.

 

Essentially, I don’t think basing analysis or making comparisons versus 2020 is going to give a particularly reflective image of the partisan vote/turnout. Will find out in 10 days or so, but that’s my take.

Fair enough. If we look at NV for example the margins are quite difficult for the Dems already to the point where it looks improbable

 

They were up 66 thousand in Clark County this time in 2020 today it’s just 6k that’s a big difference. To win Nevada at this point they need to win independents by 10%+ it’s not impossible but they are fighting a huge uphill battle.

Nevada has been Democrat since 2004. It's a bit like Florida now in that it's not so swingy.

Fair enough. If we look at NV for example the margins are quite difficult for the Dems already to the point where it looks improbable

 

They were up 66 thousand in Clark County this time in 2020 today it’s just 6k that’s a big difference. To win Nevada at this point they need to win independents by 10%+ it’s not impossible but they are fighting a huge uphill battle.

 

Also, if they are not voting eaely - although they should, as fascists might just close down stations, or have one per hesvily populated area etc -then what can you draw from that? They might be voting on election day to avoid Trump throwing out votes and the whole stop the count nonsense. Or maybe people really want fascism and ir's a Trump landslide... Or maybe the opposite... We'll see.

Also, if they are not voting eaely - although they should, as fascists might just close down stations, or have one per hesvily populated area etc -then what can you draw from that? They might be voting on election day to avoid Trump throwing out votes and the whole stop the count nonsense. Or maybe people really want fascism and ir's a Trump landslide... Or maybe the opposite... We'll see.

 

I think that 2020 saw record levels of voters due to the way it was done. Therefore we will have less this year and a lot of Dems are apathetic. Their party is in charge things aren’t going amazing, the Gaza/lebanon issue is a red line for many. So I just see it as likely that they’ll simply vote third party or not at all. Of course if you can drum up hysteria that Trump is just winning and fascism is coming back maybe it’ll create a last minute surge on election day but seems unlikely. The rhetoric has been dialled up for a long time you can’t really dial it up anymore.

 

For Nevada this guy is the best to follow. Very biased anti-GOP but almost always accurate with regards to ballots and numbers and who’s likely to win https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/th...oting-blog-2024

But Trump is fascist. It is fact. He is also a past incumbent snd things were terrible under him.

For Nevada this guy is the best to follow. Very biased anti-GOP but almost always accurate with regards to ballots and numbers and who’s likely to win https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/th...oting-blog-2024

 

Was going to ask you about this because that wasn't matching up with the numbers I was seeing for Clark County - taking a look into it further I was seeing the mail-in numbers where they're 40k ahead, while early-in-person is dominated by Reps.

 

I'm not overly concerned about it though, Nevada's early signs have been bad for Dems before and they've turned it around, the lead in early in-person voting for Reps is likely to be the high-propensity voters voting anyway, and Nevada recently moved to voters being automatically registered as unaffiliated, so the young Dem voters may well indeed be registered as independents. Besides, even if all of that is wrong, it's the least important swing state as it doesn't matter for who wins the presidency in most of the likely combinations.

Panorama One hour US election special. BBC1 8pm tonight. The Appeal Of Donald Trump. His supporters try to explain why they adore him.

 

Corrie at 9 on +1 for me then. :o Wish we had BBC1 +1 but was shelved due to cutbacks. :(

Edited October 28, 2024Oct 28 by crazy chris

The closer it gets to E-day, the more convinced I am Kamala has this in the bag. Primarily because I don’t trust the polling at all, especially not the last few weeks.

 

Yeah I think the polls have overcompensated for Trump this time after 2020 polls predicted Biden to win the swing states by more percentage points than he did especially in Wisconsin which was predicted +8 Biden at one point iirc and he only won it by +1.

Edited October 28, 2024Oct 28 by TheSnake

Panorama One hour US election special. BBC1 8pm tonight. The Appeal Of Donald Trump. His supporters try to explain why they adore him.

 

Do you feature?

Trump's rally offending Puerto Rican diaspora oh a shock Democrat flip incoming??

Only one week to go now! Feels like it has come around quickly, more so than how the lead up to the 2020 election felt. But I guess that was because it was in the hope of getting Donald Trump out of the White House so the anticipation was greater. I think and hope Kamala Harris will win this time and what a fantastic, historic and ground-breaking achievement that would be for her.

Trump's rally offending Puerto Rican diaspora oh a shock Democrat flip incoming??

He has history with Puerto Rico. When it was devastated by hurricanes, Trump said that the inadequate response showed that their president was “the worst president in the world “. That president was Trump. His statement was probably the closest he has come to telling the truth for many years.