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I don't think Ariana is guaranteed to debut at #1. It's obviously possible though, but you can never be sure. I thought No Tears Left to Cry would be guaranteed and somehow it wasn't. And Focus under-performed despite being a great song as well.

 

'No Tears' was unlucky to be up against the biggest song of the year (One Kiss), with the sales it got it would've got it at any other point of the year. Also with 'Focus' she was nowhere near as big in 2015.

 

Of course it's never guaranteed, but I'm not sure she has a 'One Kiss' equivalent standing in her way this time.

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Uh oh, a 3 year gap. Gaps that big destroyed the Spice Girls, solo Spice Girls, Katy Perry, Nelly Furtado, Cristina Aguilera, Cristina Milian, Ashanti, Robbie Williams, The Feeling, Jessica Simpson, Leanne Rimes, Rihanna...

 

Very few avoid the 3 year flop!!!

 

Lol at comparing Jessica Simpson with Katy Perry and Rihanna! When was she ever in their league? She had a couple of hits around the turn of the century and just fizzled out like so many middling artists do.

Of course it's never guaranteed, but I'm not sure she has a 'One Kiss' equivalent standing in her way this time.

 

'Stick Season' is a fairly strong #1 and may still not have peaked, so she might need a bigger debut than she got with 'positions' (which I think she could do assuming the song is strong enough but it's not like there's no competition).

Shame zach / Kacey couldn’t make top 15 but I’m so happy it’s still doing so well! Hope feather can go top 10! Happy Sabrina’s having a hit tbat isn’t an autopayola one, though it’s far from her best

14 Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA - Rich Baby Daddy

13 Billy Gillies feat. Hannah Boleyn - DNA (Loving You)

12 Fred again.. & Baby Keem - leavemealone

If I were predicting i’d say new Ariana will be a 1 week #1 debut and then long running top 5

 

Yeah I’m expecting something a la vampire except it’ll peak week 1. I expect her week 1 sales will grab her #1 but cautiously optimistic Noah Kahan will regain the following week, especially as hell have cds and vinyls as of 19th Jan!

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