Comparing her debut to her thank u, next or 7 rings debut is pointless imo. Market is so much bigger now than it was in 2018/2019 so the numbers should be significantly higher by default

 

It’s hard to compare it with the market only though because her star was at its height in the ‘Thank You, Next’ and ‘Positions’ era imo.

Wait, she’s only 25k ahead and he’s ahead on Apple. And her first day should be her highest (dont think it will hold well), so it’s gonna be close. Noah did 764k, new peak for him!

Hasn't it been mentioned that her first days aren't ever her highest and that she grows each time? I'm not saying the same will be for this, but I wouldn't count her out yet, at all. She could still grow her numbers. In fact Miley did the same last year, no? (idk exactly as I don't have the numbers in front of me to check)

 

Numbers were about where I expected and after the last couple of days, Noah being as close as he is in today's update doesn't surprise me. I'm intrigued to see how far Ari can go as I suspect this will grow, but maybe not until after the weekend?

Hasn't it been mentioned that her first days aren't ever her highest and that she grows each time? I'm not saying the same will be for this, but I wouldn't count her out yet, at all. She could still grow her numbers. In fact Miley did the same last year, no? (idk exactly as I don't have the numbers in front of me to check)

 

Numbers were about where I expected and after the last couple of days, Noah being as close as he is in today's update doesn't surprise me. I'm intrigued to see how far Ari can go as I suspect this will grow, but maybe not until after the weekend?

 

Anything can happen, but the buzz since yesterday is not even semi close to TU,N lead or Flowers. I think this will lose a lot of streams this week but maybe I’m wrong, who knows. Also, positions didn’t grew that first week much, it’s was one (her biggest) era.

Ariana at #1 and beating the 21 Savage takeover

Well as a chart fan it’s always great to have a week when the #1 isn’t certain from the start!

Apple Music Chart Update (12/01)

 

01 01 Noah Kahan - Stick Season

02 02 Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder on the Dancefloor

03 NE Ariana Grande - yes, and?

04 03 Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me

05 06 Teddy Swims - Lose Control

06 04 cassö, RAYE & D-Block Europe - Prada

07 05 Tate McRae - greedy

08 07 Tyla - Water

09 11 Zara Larsson & David Guetta - On My Love

10 12 Sonny Fodera & MK - Asking (feat. Clementine Douglas)

 

11 NE D-Block Europe & Noizy - Eagle

12 10 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer

13 09 Billy Gillies - DNA (Loving You) [feat. Hannah Boleyn]

14 08 Kenya Grace - Strangers

15 13 Drake - Rich Baby Daddy (feat. Sexyy Red & SZA)

16 14 Dua Lipa - Houdini

17 15 Olivia Rodrigo - vampire

18 16 Fred again.. & Baby Keem - leavemealone

19 18 Fred again.. & Obongjayar - adore u

20 17 Chris Brown - Angel Numbers / Ten Toes

 

21 20 Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red

22 22 The Killers - Mr. Brightside

23 NE 21 Savage - redrum

24 19 Tate McRae - exes

25 NE 21 Savage, Travis Scott & Metro Boomin - née-nah

26 NE 21 Savage - all of me

27 23 Dave & Central Cee - Sprinter

28 24 Chase & Status & Bou - Baddadan (feat. IRah, Flowdan, Trigga & Takura)

29 27 Doja Cat - Agora Hills

30 21 Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]

 

31 30 Eliza Rose & Calvin Harris - Body Moving

32 49 Sabrina Carpenter - Feather

33 NE 21 Savage & Doja Cat - n.h.i.e.

34 25 Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero

35 31 Dua Lipa - Dance The Night

36 28 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved

37 32 Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten

38 26 Becky Hill & Chase & Status - Disconnect

39 33 Tom Odell - Another Love

40 62 D-Block Europe - Skims

 

41 29 Tems - Me & U

43 52 goddard. & Cat Burns - Wasted Youth

44 37 Nicki Minaj - Everybody (feat. Lil Uzi Vert)

47 38 Zach Bryan - I Remember Everything (feat. Kacey Musgraves)

52 44 David Guetta & Kim Petras - When We Were Young (The Logical Song)

53 48 Belters Only, Sonny Fodera & Jazzy - Life Lesson

57 41 The Weeknd & Madonna - Popular (feat. Playboi Carti) [Music from the HBO Original Series The Idol]

60 NE Ella Henderson - Alibi (feat. Rudimental)

61 45 Nicki Minaj - FTCU

63 40 Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang

64 36 Lewis Capaldi - Strangers

65 51 Chris Brown - Sensational (feat. Davido & Lojay)

67 57 Switch Disco - VACANCY

72 63 Joel Corry - Hey DJ

80 65 Kanye West - Runaway (feat. Pusha T)

84 58 Drake - Practice

95 42 Central Cee - Entrapreneur

96 75 Nicki Minaj - Pink Friday Girls

 

102 87 Mason & Princess Superstar - Perfect (Exceeder)

118 167 Chase & Status - Selecta (feat. Stefflon Don)

125 147 Songer - Toxic (Freestyle)

130 72 Bring Me The Horizon - Kool-Aid

136 100 Lyrical Lemonade & Dave - Stop Giving Me Advice (feat. Jack Harlow)

137 145 Flo Milli - Never Lose Me

190 172 Chris Stapleton - Tennessee Whiskey

Comparing her debut to her thank u, next or 7 rings debut is pointless imo. Market is so much bigger now than it was in 2018/2019 so the numbers should be significantly higher by default

 

Artists rarely, if ever, grow sales in subsequent eras so it’s still an impressive debut.

Ariana will not get #1 I guarantee it. She probably will be #1 on the first look though

Comparing her debut to her thank u, next or 7 rings debut is pointless imo. Market is so much bigger now than it was in 2018/2019 so the numbers should be significantly higher by default

But is the market bigger at the top end generally? The streaming market has grown but I've not noticed a big difference as far as the top 40 has gone (and recently, chart sales to make the top 10 and top 40 have been low, Christmas aside). I don't think there's anything to suggest this bigger market would benefit Ariana, or anything other than the wide spread of older music trickling streams.

Ariana will not get #1 I guarantee it. She probably will be #1 on the first look though

I don't see how guarantees can be made yet, we have no indication of Ariana's trajectory, nor her physical sales. I'd say it's likely Noah will overtake but it's not certain. Her success with this was underpredicted and is now being downplayed curiously!

I think it's worth waiting for Ariana's day 2 on Spotify before we can come to any conclusion about her likelihood to go #1 this week, could go either way at this point.

Ariana did better than I expected but we’ll see how it holds up once the curiosity streams tail off

Wow much more than I was expecting, 790K is a great opening x Ariana

And also wow at Sophie with nearly 600K

600K without being on hot hits is definitely pretty remarkable. And I think it’s pretty rubbish that Spotify haven’t added Sophie when she’s been top 10 for a couple of weeks now

I’m excited to have a week where we don’t know who it’ll be! Id like Ariana to get it because it’s always nice to have a new #1. But if Noah holds it I’m not complaining as i adore stick season too!

a look at Ariana's first week streams on Spotify...

 

No Tears Left to Cry: 543K-546-546-616-622-617-577

 

Thank U Next: 590K-785-853-929-980-1,007-895

Follow-up 7 Rings: 809K-882-814-906-856-829-802

Break up... pushed on album release week started: 785K-763-702-798-770-744-719

 

Positions: 541K-455-414-439-417-404-395

Climbed on week 2 due to the album release peaking at 619K but quickly dropped: 619K-496-424-483-463

 

But is the market bigger at the top end generally? The streaming market has grown but I've not noticed a big difference as far as the top 40 has gone (and recently, chart sales to make the top 10 and top 40 have been low, Christmas aside). I don't think there's anything to suggest this bigger market would benefit Ariana, or anything other than the wide spread of older music trickling streams.

Yep, this is key. Just had a look at this past week on Spotify vs. the equivalent week 2 years ago. #10 has barely changed (like 0.2% growth) while #200 2 years ago was doing 360K vs. 480K now (33% growth)*. Spotify's growth is galvanising catalogue/left of centre streams, rather than the top 40.

 

*Also to note that this was on a week that The Weeknd & Gunna both arrived with 10+ debuts each, so #200 would ordinarily have been even lower.

a look at Ariana's first week streams on Spotify...

 

No Tears Left to Cry: 543K-546-546-616-622-617-577

 

Thank U Next: 590K-785-853-929-980-1,007-895

Follow-up 7 Rings: 809K-882-814-906-856-829-802

Break up... pushed on album release week started: 785K-763-702-798-770-744-719

 

Positions: 541K-455-414-439-417-404-395

Climbed on week 2 due to the album release peaking at 619K but quickly dropped: 619K-496-424-483-463

 

So again, only happened on TU,N era which was beyond huge. I can’t see it happening again with this song, it brings nothing to the table to just grow with no reason after being number 1 on every playlist on the planet already.

Hard to predict these days, on paper it looks like a peak on day song ala Houdini

but impossible to say these days cos of tiktok

a silly dance with the one line from the song completely out of context goes viral and the song is #1 for 10 weeks

like Doja Cat always starts awfully, then 1/2 of her songs go viral on tiktok and explode in the charts so you never know

doesn't even depend on song quality just luck

I don't think a song has ever been #1 for 10 weeks just because of one line of a song from TikTok going viral lmao.

 

I know we love to hate on TikTok but it's given a lot of unique chart hits and also there's so many songs that are HUGE on there but never see the light of charts - It Girl and What It Is were huge but only made Top 100, sure they were still hits but not like huge. I do think some quality comes into it as well.