Just to update on the odds it’s now

Reform 1/3

Labour 9/4

Still remains open but reform now big favs tbh I don’t see how they don’t win. It’d take the Tories getting their vote or a huge Farage own goal or something like that.

IMO those are good value odds for Labour.

Which is different from saying they'll win, I'm prepared for the misery of seeing Farage's triumphant face once more, but I can't see this as anything more favourable to Reform than a 50-50, the fundamentals are too good to Labour and the latest cycles of news (and polls) haven't been the most auspicious for Reform.

On 08/04/2025 at 18:14, Iz 🌟 said:

IMO those are good value odds for Labour.

Which is different from saying they'll win, I'm prepared for the misery of seeing Farage's triumphant face once more, but I can't see this as anything more favourable to Reform than a 50-50, the fundamentals are too good to Labour and the latest cycles of news (and polls) haven't been the most auspicious for Reform.

Well the odds have gone to 1/5 3/1 Labour have problems because in Labour heartlands reform are quite strong and in rural areas they’ll vote for anyone who is able to beat Labour then in more diverse city areas they’re voting greens and independents. Nowhere is going to be easy for Labour to win

At one point this weekend it was 1/7 reform 7/2 Labour

Now it’s 4/9 reform 13/8 Labour. Wonder what caused this shift. Seems people think it’s still up for grabs

11 minutes ago, Liam S said:

At one point this weekend it was 1/7 reform 7/2 Labour

Now it’s 4/9 reform 13/8 Labour. Wonder what caused this shift. Seems people think it’s still up for grabs

Maybe people have come to there senses and realise Reform are a bunch of right wing racist knobheads?

I doubt it though :D

3 hours ago, Liam S said:

At one point this weekend it was 1/7 reform 7/2 Labour

Now it’s 4/9 reform 13/8 Labour. Wonder what caused this shift. Seems people think it’s still up for grabs

Yeah, that's more or less where it was the last time we brought it up, wasn't it? Some bookies still have 1/3 Reform.

Obviously odds is mostly people putting money down on the possibility, not analytical wisdom (though often these align), so political betters may well have noticed the value in betting Labour, but only to a point, I'd have loaded at least a(nother) quid on them if I'd caught them at 7/2.

Have been gaming it out by looking at more by-election comparisons in similar circumstances. Outside of the last parliament, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland in early 2017 seem instructive, Northern England, traditional Labour strongholds, at the time, prior to the 2017 election announcement, Corbyn's Labour were very unpopular, Labour held on in Stoke, with Conservatives and Reform UKIP splitting the right-wing vote. They lost in Copeland, where the Conservatives emerged as the clear right-wing choice and UKIP barely got 1000 votes.

Also, the last time UKIP/Reform won any Westminster by-election, the defections of Carswell and Reckless in late 2014, though those were both east coast in what is now Reform Central, they've yet to break through in an old Labour area (most crosstabs have at least twice as many 2024 Con voters defecting to Reform as they do 2024 Lab voters).

Though yes, I suspect rather more people will be thinking of North Shropshire and Tiverton as by-elections that take place in traditional party heartlands, overturned by the 'upstart' party on the opposite side of the centre.

I'm still rating this as a tossup honestly. If it was a Red Wall lost-in-2019 seat I'd have likely Reform - Amesbury was run close in 2019, but then it was Weaver Vale and had mostly the southern, more Conservative parts of the seat and other countryside bits that are now in other seats, and not Runcorn, which made it a safer Labour seat.

23 hours ago, Iz 🌟 said:

Yeah, that's more or less where it was the last time we brought it up, wasn't it? Some bookies still have 1/3 Reform.

Obviously odds is mostly people putting money down on the possibility, not analytical wisdom (though often these align), so political betters may well have noticed the value in betting Labour, but only to a point, I'd have loaded at least a(nother) quid on them if I'd caught them at 7/2.

Have been gaming it out by looking at more by-election comparisons in similar circumstances. Outside of the last parliament, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland in early 2017 seem instructive, Northern England, traditional Labour strongholds, at the time, prior to the 2017 election announcement, Corbyn's Labour were very unpopular, Labour held on in Stoke, with Conservatives and Reform UKIP splitting the right-wing vote. They lost in Copeland, where the Conservatives emerged as the clear right-wing choice and UKIP barely got 1000 votes.

Also, the last time UKIP/Reform won any Westminster by-election, the defections of Carswell and Reckless in late 2014, though those were both east coast in what is now Reform Central, they've yet to break through in an old Labour area (most crosstabs have at least twice as many 2024 Con voters defecting to Reform as they do 2024 Lab voters).

Though yes, I suspect rather more people will be thinking of North Shropshire and Tiverton as by-elections that take place in traditional party heartlands, overturned by the 'upstart' party on the opposite side of the centre.

I'm still rating this as a tossup honestly. If it was a Red Wall lost-in-2019 seat I'd have likely Reform - Amesbury was run close in 2019, but then it was Weaver Vale and had mostly the southern, more Conservative parts of the seat and other countryside bits that are now in other seats, and not Runcorn, which made it a safer Labour seat.

Looking into it deeper I think the new statesman came out with a prediction that Labour would hold onto it by a thin margin and that led to a flood of bets on Labour which caused a big fluctuation in the odds.

The psychology of humans and politics often is that once someone changes their vote once they are a lot more likely too in the future. So UKIP never really had a true hope in hell but the one after would always have a bigger chance and the amount of elections over the last 10 years has given more people more opportunities to change their vote so it’s actually an ideal time to be an emerging or non major party as it’s really possible to get votes they wouldn’t have been able to before. You won’t see that logic anywhere but trust me on that one.

I just don’t see how Labour win due to people having nothing to vote for. You could make a case on voting against reform but that’s about it. So they’re going to have a turnout problem. Voters protesting problem. Voters going to the greens or Lib Dem’s problem. Then of course lots going to reform. Tactical voting probably overall benefits reform here too. Plus it’s a heavy welfare place and that’s a hot issue right now. After the odds the last few days I thought maybe Labour would keep it but seeing some videos today it does reflect more what I suspected and the odds have also gone back to drifting on Labour

Labour generally have a good ground game but how do you get the vote out with such discontent out there. Almost impossible.

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1917175270202896512?s=46

Labour certainly haven’t given up. Tons of MPs campaigning there but it looks like an uphill battle. Wouldn’t be surprised if Labour pulled it off but I’m expecting reform to win by a good 5% or more

It's true, there is a strong lack of enthusiasm - though a good portion of people being vox popped on the streets of Runcorn are also the sorts not to vote in a by-election. New Statesman has also looked into the Ashcroft poll and found that it oversampled Runcorn and undersampled the rural villages, I think that may be where their thin Labour projection came from.

Thing is, the best argument I could think of to vote Labour for someone who's a disillusioned left-leaning person (Runcorn is a good example of a town that's mostly populated by such voters) is that they will see a loss to Reform as a need to double down on moving rightwards which is going after a tinier and tinier group of voters and is a clear strategic mistake, far more of Labour's 2024 coalition will be tempted by Lib Dems and Greens in enough numbers* to cause them to lose crucial areas. That's also just a bit arcane of a reasoning. Said disillusioned apolitical but left-leaning voters are very much likely to be either non-voters or tempted by more radical left parties, the Greens or perhaps other small parties depending on area. They likely also view Reform with disdain.

Honestly a lot of the problems highlighted in that video are somewhat beyond the power of a comfortable status quo government like Starmer's Labour, I don't think they have the solutions to those.

* https://cdn.persuasionuk.org/reform_labour_final_report_cc3c7c1dd2.pdf - Polling report showing 11% of 2024 Labour voters are open to voting Reform, compared to 29% for Greens and 41% for Lib Dems.

Just like Trump, i feel that the media is bending over backwards in general/on aggregate to sanewash Reform, its policies, leadership and claims.

This isn't a political party. Its a membership-paying cult that - just like Farage's past outfits - faces a suspicious lack of high-profile scrutiny or burden of proof on any of its claims or strategies.

My perspective is: believe what you like. I'm certainly not as far left as some posters. But, if you're voting for someone because you want them to enact certain policies that are dear to your heart or central to your belief system or philosophy, take into account their track record of what they have actually DONE in the past and what the outcome has been, rather than riding on claims of a never-ending what if.

Farage is a multi-millionaire who's been on this earth six decades. What's his history of tangible achievements, and how does it compare or contrast to the damage he's done? How does he elevate and center those who vote for him and deliver them measurable benefits? These are the kinds of things that should sway your vote moreso than promises that seem to be a perfect solve, almost too good to be true.

This was what changed the odds

I think people mistook it for a poll rather than a model based off last month.

The odds have gone back to what they were on the weekend

The polls always show a small number of Labour voters open to voting reform but reforms votes have to come from somewhere so if they win Runcorn where Labour had a 15k majority you’d have to say it’s more than those polls are showing.

There is a cultish base to reform but overall they’ve just positioned themselves best to mop up the unsatisfied voters. Other parties could have done it they just haven’t made a proper effort to position themselves in that way.

Yeah I think Reform will win, but I also think it's a disaster waiting to happen. A lot of their support material all seems to be based on Farage and I'm just nt+ot sure how much of an election pull he will be come 2029. Plus, as even the likes of Rupert Lowe are pointing out, Reform don't have any answers for how they're actually going to do anything (fecking shock). If you tell someone whose struggling that they will increase the personal tax allowance to 20k, then I understand why people would vote for them, I would in their situation. Although what they don't tell you is how they're actually going to do that without bankrupting the country or just making sure you pay more for everything else to compensate through VAT.

Reform win the by-election... by SIX (6) votes. After a full recount.

REF 12,645

LAB 12,639

CON 2,341

GRE 2,314

LDEM 942

Unfortunately it's the bad timeline where the result flipping on a knife-edge to Reform is going to cause a lot more of a boost to their mission than if it had gone the other way, a six-vote difference would have completely changed the 'tough questions' the media are asking Labour to instead asking about Reform's viability. But I'm pleased to see I called it basically correctly (and the odds were way off!), that there was nothing in it, though I was thinking a margin of within a couple thousand, not single-digits!

Hopefully Labour have a good response to this and switch tacks a bit, though the pessimist in me says the tack they'll switch to will be to dump Miliband and lose even more progressive enthusiasm.

Surprising news to wake up to. When I fell asleep it was seen as Labour won by a few hundred votes. The turnout was pretty high for a by-election and Labour had a lot of activists and such on the day going all out so it’s a pretty bad loss when you think it was the 10th safest seat or something like that even if it was by just a few votes

Not really a surprising result - I was expecting Reform to take it by more given the airtime they currently get.

Unfortunately just feeds into the right wing narrative and right wing media.

Hopefully things change over the next 4 years before the next GE as the prospect of PM Farage is not something I would want to have to endure. Unfortunately though the UK is seems to be ever increasingly more racist, xenophobic and less tolerant in general. With divisions being stoked daily by Reform, the Tories and the right wing outlets which fund the parties.

12 minutes ago, Liam S said:

Surprising news to wake up to. When I fell asleep it was seen as Labour won by a few hundred votes. The turnout was pretty high for a by-election and Labour had a lot of activists and such on the day going all out so it’s a pretty bad loss when you think it was the 10th safest seat or something like that even if it was by just a few votes

Just because I've seen that 10th/16th safest seat number bandied about and it's wrong. Though they shouldn't be losing their 49th safest seat like this either.

Another By-election incoming

Suffolk MP Patrick Spencer is charged with two sexual assaults - BBC News

Labour came 2nd in this seat in 2024, albeit their candidate was suspended prior the campaign due to a betting scandal. Currently Reform are currently favourites in the most recent model I’ve seen.

No rest for the wicked! (the wicked being psephologists)

Well, if there's any truth to those allegations that is. Definitely on my radar as a likely Reform pickup, though the prevalence of rural communities here means there might be Conservative strength yet - could be a full-on right-wing catfight.

One of the less Reform-friendly archetypal safe Tory seats. If Reform pick this up then the Conservatives's existence is in trouble (which I think we knew already).

Scottish Parliament by-election last night in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Was an SNP seat with the by-election caused by the passing of the former MSP.

Results:

LAB 8,559

SNP 7,957

REF 7,088

CON 1,621

SGRE 695

LDEM 533

I am surprised, the little amount of research I'd done into this one suggested a narrowing of the SNP hold. Labour did well in parts of this area at the Westminster election last year so in that sense this represents a narrowing of their lead, but the narrative of a win will be nice for Scottish Labour ahead of the Holyrood elections next year.