June 17Jun 17 Think Burnham will win this by 5-6 points with Restores vote being the killer for Reform. Then what happens does Burnham just start a leadership bid on Monday….
June 19Jun 19 Great news. I was expecting him to win but I wasn’t expecting it to be by that much. Even better to see he’d have beaten Reform and Restore combined.
June 19Jun 19 Indeed, there was a path where Restore being the key to denying Reform would mean they had legs as a malevolent far-right force dragging Reform further right. So with them putting effort into this, hopefully we don't hear much more of them.Good stuff for Burnham, I have been paying less attention to this than I would otherwise in protestation at the media circus, but he's now in Parliament and can make whatever moves he'd like, though I also think that immediately throwing down the gauntlet against Starmer would look a bit gauche.
June 19Jun 19 1 hour ago, uhsting said:lib dems got absolutely wiped out while greens got the lowest vote share in a while???I’d say the Burnham campaign blew the rest out of the water more than shows any sign of changes in attitude. Now, can this be the same in other areas?
June 19Jun 19 Not likely. They're as popular as a wet weekend in the country. However I do believe that reform are genuinely on the slide and their moment has passed
June 19Jun 19 Author On 11/06/2026 at 18:38, Brett-Butler said:There's one week until the Makerfield by-election. For reference, here are the candidates running in the by-election:Jake Austin – Liberal DemocratsCount Binface – Count Binface PartyAndy Burnham – Labour and Co-operative PartyDan Clarke – Libertarian PartyJohn Dyer – IndependentEd Gemmell – Climate PartyPaul Gould – IndependentAlan "Howlin" Laud Hope – The Official Monster Raving Loony PartyRobert Kenyon – Reform UKRobert Pownall – IndependentRebecca Shepherd – Restore BritainSarah Wakefield – Green PartyPeter Ward – Rejoin EUMichael Winstanley – Conservative and Unionist PartyAs expected, given the high profile of this by-election, there is a massive slate of candidates hoping to take advantage of the added attention they are likely to get; outside of the usual suspects there's the Libertarians, Monster Raving Loonies, Rejoin EU (whose raison d'etre is a mystery), and the absolutely hilarious Count Binface.Under normal circumstances this would be a slam dunk Reform seat if it wasn't for the presence of Andrew Murray Burnham on the slate (although of course, there wouldn't have been a by-election here at all if it weren't for the presence of Mr Andrew Murray Burnham). The Brett-Butler Prognosticator 4000 gives this one to Labour and Andy Burnham with a narrow victory (although what Andy Burnham we get post 19th we will see).Given the high profile of this by-election, it's easy to forget that there are two other parliamentary by-elections in Scotland on the same day to replace SNP politicians who were elected to the Scottish parliament. The support acts are as follows -Aberdeen South -Nurul Hoque Ali – Scottish Labour PartyDavid Ballantine – Alliance for Democracy and Freedom (ADF)Jo Hart – Reform UKDouglas Lumsden – Scottish Conservative and UnionistJorg Shelton-Eckstein – Scottish Green PartyMel Sullivan – Scottish Liberal DemocratsRichard Gordon Thomson – Scottish National Party (SNP)Arbroath and Broughty Ferry -Tanvir Ahmad – Scottish Liberal DemocratsLara Bird – Scottish National Party (SNP)Jack Cruickshanks – Scottish Conservative and Unionist PartyHeather Doran – Scottish Labour PartyBill Reid – Reform UKI would have put both of these down as solid SNP holds if it wasn't for the public learning that Nicola Sturgeon has a special medical condition causing her to not see caravans parked in her garden. The SNP's majorities weren't massive in either of these, so both of these will end up tight. I'm predicting a shock loss in Aberdeen South to the Conservatives, and a hold in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, courtesy of the good voters in Battenberg Road, D11, Arbroath.Well, in a rare occurrence, I got the winners of all 3 by-elections right. After all of that, the net effect is + 1 Tories, - 1 SNP. There will now be a by-election for the Mayor of Greater Manchester, which I’ve seen suggested will be the largest ever by-election in population terms in UK voting history. If Andy calls a General Election on his coronation with a Lib Dem pact, then he’ll continue Labour’s majority, cut off Reform when they’re at a wane, and wipe out the Tories for good, with Reform withering on the vine in opposition to Burnham. If he leaves it to 2029, then it’ll be a straight Labour/Tory contest - Kemi Badenoch has settled into the role as leader of the opposition, and this surprise by-election victory gives them the momentum on the right rather than Farage.
June 19Jun 19 18 minutes ago, Jessie Where said:Andy Burnham's new front benchLooks like he's fronting the next series of Masked Singer 🤣
June 19Jun 19 10 hours ago, Gezza said:Not likely. They're as popular as a wet weekend in the country. However I do believe that reform are genuinely on the slide and their moment has passedThat'll be why the Lib Dems keep winning local byelections. The Lib Dem effort in Makerfield pretty much stopped after the nomination papers were submitted. The sane applies to the Tories.
June 19Jun 19 10 minutes ago, Suedehead2 said:That'll be why the Lib Dems keep winning local byelections. The Lib Dem effort in Makerfield pretty much stopped after the nomination papers were submitted. The sane applies to the Tories.Sorry I was referring to Labour and if they could replicate that showing in other parts of the country. I might have got the wrong meaning of the original post 😄
June 19Jun 19 53 minutes ago, Gezza said:Sorry I was referring to Labour and if they could replicate that showing in other parts of the country. I might have got the wrong meaning of the original post 😄Looking at some of Labour's critics, you could believe that they inherited the strongest economy any country has ever known. The truth is that they inherited an almighty mess. That's why the Tories were hammered. Unfortunately, memories of 1992, when they were honest about how bad things were, meant that Labour were too scared to be honest about the challenges they would face.
Saturday at 21:115 days Indeed, it’s amazing how quickly people have brought into the nonsense that this Labour government is the cause of the problem a 22 months to be precise. And already the media and people are starting to seriously consider the tories again without any brass neck. Cameron got 6 years out of blaming Labour for a global financial crisis under their watch. And not one argument back from the media.
Saturday at 21:345 days 21 minutes ago, Steve201 said:Indeed, it’s amazing how quickly people have brought into the nonsense that this Labour government is the cause of the problem a 22 months to be precise. And already the media and people are starting to seriously consider the tories again without any brass neck.Cameron got 6 years out of blaming Labour for a global financial crisis under their watch. And not one argument back from the media.Even after Cameron the Tories continued to blame Labour. They were still doing so when they were finally turfed out.
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