1 hour ago, GreyAsh said:

I’ve done a rough estimate for the all time totals for the top 5 biggest songs of all time:

Ed: 6,744,000

Killers: 6,720,000 (Julian)

Band Aid: 6,315,000

Wham!: 6,297,293 (confirmed today)

Lewis: 6,230,000

Other than Wham! does anyone have any more accurate estimates than these, or feel any of these are off?

I feel Wham! will now stay permanently ahead of Lewis Capaldi, and if they haven’t already overtaken Band-Aid, will probably do so this week or if not, then next week.

And the number 1 position will probably change hands twice over the next two months (or rather, three times: Ed - Killers - Wham! - Killers).

A brief discussion with someone suggested that this is an over estimate for Band-Aid and Ed Sheeran, but possibly an underestimate for Lewis Capaldi.

I am very happy to see this detailed information because I was trying to figure that out for many weeks now. Thanks for the info.

I agree with 6,300,000 for Lewis, and that’s in the YTD Top 100 so I should be very close. I assume we’re all guessing when it comes to “Shape Of You”, but I think I’d lean towards GreyAsh’s slightly higher estimate.

Roughly how much does Wham! manage each year? Do you think there will be a point where they or the Killers stay ahead permanently?

Wham! were doing better each year than the Killers at the start of the decade but now the Killers are ahead. Wouldn’t think it’s impossible that this is the last year Wham! overtake if current trends continue

1 hour ago, Maestro said:

Wham! were doing better each year than the Killers at the start of the decade but now the Killers are ahead. Wouldn’t think it’s impossible that this is the last year Wham! overtake if current trends continue

Last year it was The Killers. The previous year it was Wham! 4 years ago they were neck and neck. They’ve been getting roughly 600,000 each each year.

The reason why The Killers were in the lead last year was because of their use in the film Saltburn.

This year, however, oldies are taking over the chart more than ever before (hence Iris in the top 40) but we don’t know yet if this will impact on Christmas songs - and Mr Brightside is one of the songs benefiting.

So possibly Mr Brightside will take a permanent lead, but it’s difficult to say at the moment. This year could be the only opportunity for Last Christmas to be the all-time best seller.

1 hour ago, Maestro said:

Wham! were doing better each year than the Killers at the start of the decade but now the Killers are ahead. Wouldn’t think it’s impossible that this is the last year Wham! overtake if current trends continue

Wham! does roughly 500-650k each year.

2 hours ago, GreyAsh said:

So possibly Mr Brightside will take a permanent lead

Or a semi permanent lead until “Iris” overtakes it in 2052.

Golden closing in on the top 5.

12 To 12 in this week, Move out. Think Dive may be an unexpected entry by the end of the year, my YTD estimate is around 380k!

380k is a bit optimistic for Dive imo

3 minutes ago, Maestro said:

380k is a bit optimistic for Dive imo

It probably is but it's not been easy to track with its first certification coming in October 2024 and its second in July this year. Could be a good 20-30k below my estimate

"The Fate of Ophelia" should now be comfortably in the top 60 with 522k units.

I guess the 2 unknowns with “Dive” are:

• How much did it do between going silver on 4/10/24 and the end of 2024? Those sales won’t count to this year.

• How many sales is it actually on now? It did about 14k this week, and I’m not sure we have any idea if it’s on 600,100 or 614,000 which makes quite a difference.

For the first one, it took 18 months to go silver, less than 3k average per week, and she wasn’t in the spotlight in late 2024. So I doubt it would have been doing more than 2k per week in late 2024. Still that could amount to 25k or so.

So if it was on 225k at the end of 2024, and it’s on 605k now say, the 380k estimate for this year so far seems fair.

Still lot 2024 songs

With a conservative estimate, Mr. Brightside has probably not yet overtaken Shape Of You as the Number 1 single of all time, but should do by the start of December (unless we get a sudden announcement by the OCC).

There is a maximum of 15k between them - and The Killers must be closing the gap by at least 8k per week.

Band Aid may have just stayed ahead of Someone You Loved in 3rd place, but I feel in the past fortnight ‘Last Christmas’ has moved ahead of Lewis into 4th place - and will leap into 3rd place to become the biggest Christmas single of all time by the end of the week.

These are the figures I’m working with - but I have not rounded them all in the same way.

1) Ed Sheeran 6,750,000 (max)

2) Killers 6,735,000

3) Band Aid 6,328,000 (max)

4) Wham! 6,323,500

5) Lewis Capaldi 6,310,000

Feel free to add any thoughts you’ve had!

And Wham! need around another 400,000 by New Year to take 1st place - and could have 550,000 more if previous years are anything to go by. Even 20% down on last year should give them a lead - BUT as we always say - we don’t know how much Christmas Day being on a Thursday will affect things!

Week 47:

1	1	Alex Warren	Ordinary	2,007,000
2	2	Lola Young	Messy	1,375,000	1,550,000
3	3	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	1,317,000	1,760,000
4	4	Rosé and Bruno Mars	APT.	1,275,000	1,630,000
5	6	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	1,124,000
6	5	Gracie Abrams	That's So True	1,115,000	1,550,000
7	7	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	1,073,000	2,860,000
8	9	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	1,052,000	1,060,000
9	8	Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars	Die With A Smile	1,046,000	1,680,000
10	10	Chrystal	The Days	952,000	1,120,000
11	11	Billie Eilish	Birds Of A Feather	949,000	2,170,000
12	12	Chappell Roan	Good Luck, Babe!	925,000	2,130,000
13	13	Teddy Swims	Lose Control	906,000	2,740,000
14	20	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	837,000
15	14	Sabrina Carpenter	Espresso	820,000	2,570,000
16	16	Sombr	Back To Friends	818,000
17	16	Gigi Perez	Sailor Song	811,000	1,410,000
18	19	Sombr	Undressed	799,000
19	17	Sabrina Carpenter	Taste	797,000	1,590,000
20	18	Teddy Swims	Bad Dreams	796,000	1,040,000
21	21	Teddy Swims	The Door	775,000	1,440,000
22	22	Tate McRae	Sports Car	768,000
23	23	Myles Smith	Nice To Meet You	762,000	870,000
24	24	Myles Smith	Stargazing	747,000	1,760,000
25	26	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	729,000
26	25	Shaboozey	A Bar Song (Tipsy)	723,000	2,060,000
27	27	WizTheMc & Bees & Honey	Show Me Love	706,000
28	28	Alex Warren	Carry You Home	694,000	990,000
29	29	Hozier	Too Sweet	688,000	2,140,000
30	31	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	683,000	4,490,000
31	30	Noah Kahan	Stick Season	680,000	3,200,000
32	32	The Killers	Mr Brightside	671,000	6,730,000
33	33	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	655,000	3,870,000
34	35	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	654,000
35	34	Ed Sheeran	Azizam	648,000
36	39	Saja Boys, Andrew Choi Neckwav, Danny Chung, Kevin Woo, samUIL Lee & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Soda Pop	622,000
37	38	Disco Lines & Tinashe	No Broke Boys	618,000
38	37	MK featuring Chrystal	Dior	610,000
39	36	Sonny Fodera, Jazzy & D.O.D.	Somedays	610,000	1,080,000
40	41	Calvin Harris And Clementine Douglas	Blessings	595,000	580,000
45	48	Sam Fender & Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	557,000
47	50	Saja Boys, Andrew Choi Neckwav, Danny Chung, Kevin Woo, samUIL Lee & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Your Idol	550,000	1,060,000
55	70	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	522,000
78	80	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	How It's Done	458,000
81	83	Justin Bieber	Daisies	448,000
85	86	Fred Again…, Skepta and PlaqueBoyMax	Victory Lap	437,000
94	-	Sombr	12 To 12	420,000
96	98	Tate McRae	Just Keep Watching	414,000
-	96	Charli XCX & Billie Eilish	Guess	409,000	910,000

Too much of a tall ask for Olivia to make it 3 top 10s released this year? Probably, with Christmas coming up.

5 minutes ago, RobBot said:

Too much of a tall ask for Olivia to make it 3 top 10s released this year? Probably, with Christmas coming up.

I think 1 is probably best bet with only 6 weeks left

Edited 23 hours ago23 hr by 777666jason

at the current rate it's selling Man I Need should quite easily make the year-end top 10 no?

let's say it averages at 50k a week for the last 5 weeks of the year (conservative estimate) - that'll be more than enough to edge Billie Eilish out of 10th spot