While I don't dispute that (it makes perfect sense), I think there was an article on Politico (the EU version) where they interviewed French muslims in one of the suburbs and a certain percentage seem to want to give Le Pen a chance because they've lost all trust in the Left (the logic behind this goes over my head). They don't seem particularly concerned about her views on Muslims or immigration because they know she won't be able to pass a lot of her legislation (that's on the assumption that the NF won't get a lot of seats in the legislatives in June, which I don't think they will).

I'm always sceptical of articles like those that stack up so much of their argument on anecdotal "I met a black man in Plymouth" evidence - all sorts believe all sorts, and it's not particularly hard to find someone from a given ethnic background who'll give you a view you wouldn't necessarily expect if you look long enough (indeed, you had a fair few 'blacks voting for Trump' articles in a similar vein).

 

I have no doubt that an actual poll of French Muslims would find overwhelming opposition to Le Pen, just as the black vote overwhelmingly opposed Trump. But articles like those will act as if token Muslim support is a big reason for it when chances are it's the big turnout from a grumbling old lady on the bus who doesn't say a word but just glares at the woman in a headscarf who just got on.

To be fair, Hollande's whole demeanour in 2012 was so anti-pomp that he was called 'Mr. Normal' and he had the charisma of roadkill. To be honest, out of all of them, I think Macron might be the best choice (though I'm open to being educated - Tirren?).

Yeah, probably. Valls seems to me like New Labour at its populist verging-on-Islamophobic worst (he made his name as mayor originally calling on supermarkets to not stock halal meat for crying out loud).

 

Hamon is well-meaning but pie in the sky as f*** - I don't see any way the universal basic income works in practice (it's horrendously expensive - we're talking around 400 billion euros annually - just to get it to raise enough to give everyone the equivalent of JSA each week. That proposed tax on robotics ain't gonna cover that.) and he's made it the centrepiece of his campaign.

 

Macron as far as I can see seems like "keep everything roughly as it is now but WITH AN APP". I mean...when the rest of the world's on fire and everyone else would either actively take France backwards or cripple the left for a generation with sheer inability, why not? Moderate spending increases with a focus on productivity gains to try and avoid austerity in future seems good. From a broader perspective, he actually gets the EU and is probably the best hope it has if he were in charge with Merkel.

I was gonna say Macron is getting my election senses tingling, but seeing as Qassandra is thinking the same, that probably means I'm wrong and Le Pen will get it!

 

 

Hang on, I didn't say he was gonna WIN, just that he's probably the most realistic candidate who can both win and won't set everything on fire

He was even beating Fillon (a two-way poll) before Fillon's... indiscretions were revealed.

Wait, so his indiscretions made Fillon more popular?

 

I'd seen somewhere that Hollande's approval ratings had gone up after the incident with Julie Gayet aswell. What are we French like?

François Fillon has changed his campaign slogan from "Le courage de la verité" ("strength of the truth") to "une volonté pour la France" ("a passion for France" I guess) following widespread mockery of the former in the face of his fake jobs scandal(s). That really was his old slogan. :basil:

François Fillon has changed his campaign slogan from "Le courage de la verité" ("strength of the truth") to "une volonté pour la France" ("a passion for France" I guess) following widespread mockery of the former in the face of his fake jobs scandal(s). That really was his old slogan. :basil:

 

He really is finished isn't he?

 

Can't say I'm sad!

 

Are we all confident that Macron has this then? Or will Le Pen still yet provide a shock?

So hot for Macron rn

Are we all confident that Macron has this then? Or will Le Pen still yet provide a shock?

 

Latest polls suggest Macron should win with ~60% to Le Pen's ~40%. Although there's still the possibility of Le Pen gathering more support before the second round of voting. I think Macron has this unless those who haven't decided swing to Le Pen or a terrorist attack (God forbird) occurs before the second round of voting.

Given she's got Russian backing I wouldn't rule out a Russian funded attack to win her the presidency tbh

Wait.

 

Hills wascwell ahead officially, but the silent voters vomitted out gross Trump votes, increasing him by at least 4% in every state.

Obviously she's going to do better than the polling suggests, but a 20% gap in the run off is surely too big to be closed by ''silent voters''.

 

Oh, who am I kidding, she's going to win.

Wait.

 

Hills wascwell ahead officially, but the silent voters vomitted out gross Trump votes, increasing him by at least 4% in every state.

That's not quite what happened. National polling and polling in most of the expected swing states was within the margin of error (usually above 3-4% either way), and the states which swung it for Trump in the Electoral College (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) weren't polled particularly well or extensively because no one was expecting them to be crucial.

 

If the gap is 20%, then Le Pen has to try and get a far higher turnout rate from her supporters than from Macron / Fillon's, and hope that a fair chunk of the mainstream right / left don't both voting if they don't like either candidate. She'll probably do this to an extent, but not enough to swing it unless there's a major attack before polling day.

That's not quite what happened. National polling and polling in most of the expected swing states was within the margin of error (usually above 3-4% either way), and the states which swung it for Trump in the Electoral College (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) weren't polled particularly well or extensively because no one was expecting them to be crucial.

Nah, more because the funding isn't there for frequent local polling anymore. The big shift was post-Comey - none of PA/MI/WI had proper polls done in that ten day gap.

Edited March 30, 20178 yr by Qassändra

A question for any of you who understands the French political system a lot better than me - what does being the President entail exactly, from a constitutional point of view? Is it more of a ceremonial and symbolic position, like it is in the Republic of Ireland, or is it a role that has executive powers and can make large decisions, like it is in the USA, or somewhere in between the two?

A question for any of you who understands the French political system a lot better than me - what does being the President entail exactly, from a constitutional point of view? Is it more of a ceremonial and symbolic position, like it is in the Republic of Ireland, or is it a role that has executive powers and can make large decisions, like it is in the USA, or somewhere in between the two?

 

The President is the boss in France. Massive powers and total control over the PM and his/her government.

 

The latest polls suggest the race it still very open for the top 4, with the gaps narrowing every day. Le Pen, Macron, Fillon and Melenchon basically all have chances to make it to the second round which is pretty SCARY. It means we could have anyone as President since Macron/Fillon/Melenchon would all win against Le Pen in the second round.

A question for any of you who understands the French political system a lot better than me - what does being the President entail exactly, from a constitutional point of view? Is it more of a ceremonial and symbolic position, like it is in the Republic of Ireland, or is it a role that has executive powers and can make large decisions, like it is in the USA, or somewhere in between the two?

Huge power provided their party wins in the Assembly as well. If they have to 'cohabit' with another party (they have to pick their PM and Cabinet from the party that wins the Assembly - it's always been the same party as the President since 2002) then they're limited to just foreign policy control and negotiating with the party in power in the Assembly. The Republicans look likely to win the Assembly - bad news for Macron, untenable for Melenchon.

These are the latest poll for the 1st round :

 

23% Macron

22,5% Le Pen

19,5% Fillon

19% Mélenchon

 

This is so close considering the error margin, I'm so scared of the outcome of this election :(

Macaron won the first round! Le Pen came second. They are qualified for the second tour.

 

Both traditionnel left and right parties are eliminated. :o

That is good news! She should be hammered in the next round right?