True, but the credibility of a political party that claimed 'in 2016-17 oil revenues would be somewhere in the region of £6.8bn to £7.9bn' when they are looking at being a few tens of million is badly wounded IMO.

Well in fairness they weren't the only people to predict the prices would be much higher than they would now.

An oil price crash that was not forseen by anyone is hardly damaging to their credibility. Get a grip. It leaves questions to be answered on the SNPs economic model but not if we can survive on our own. There are plenty of smaller and less well off countries out there that cope just fine.

 

The GERS figures are flawed because they take into account a lot of spending that wouldn't exist in an Indy Scotland such as on the northern powerhouse or on the upkeep of trident. They're the best numbers we've got but to use them without acknowledging their flaws and drawbacks isn't accurate.

Given the original bid for independence in 2014 was predicated on the price of crude oil remaining at $100 a barrel (being well over $130 a barrel at the time of their famous white paper), and it is now around half that, what is the likelihood that the economy may weigh strongly in any second independence referendum against the SNP?

 

From the FT last year

http://i294.photobucket.com/albums/mm82/TheMagicPosition86/scotlandsnp_zpsfwxsyms4.png

There's a different possible economic case that would make independence stack up now - that Edinburgh would be the preferred location for most of the City when the UK loses financial passporting after Brexit.

An oil price crash that was not forseen by anyone is hardly damaging to their credibility. Get a grip. It leaves questions to be answered on the SNPs economic model but not if we can survive on our own. There are plenty of smaller and less well off countries out there that cope just fine.

Oh come on! If you've staked your economic model on oil the idea that there is no damage whatsoever to your economic credibility when the price of it crashes is for the birds. There will be doubts.

 

And again - the notion of 'cope just fine' isn't really a winner for the independence referendum, because it's 'less well off' that's the kicker. There are plenty of smaller and less well off countries that 'cope just fine'. Plenty of undecided voters won't exactly want to become less well off just because they'd cope fine with it.

There's a different possible economic case that would make independence stack up now - that Edinburgh would be the preferred location for most of the City when the UK loses financial passporting after Brexit.

A cynic might suggest that that is one reason for May wanting to delay a referendum.

There's a different possible economic case that would make independence stack up now - that Edinburgh would be the preferred location for most of the City when the UK loses financial passporting after Brexit.

 

Though there's still that awkward question about the Scottish banks being bailed out by the UK, and which are still losing money, not repaying any of the rescue money...ten years on. No doubt a similar scenario to the Uk having a bill to pay when leaving the EU. Of course the UK could refuse to pay up (hah!) and then have the same scenario with Scotland saying "well if you don't pay your debts why should we...?"

 

 

oops!

The original proposal I believe was that Scotland would assume the debt in return for the shares in the banks. I think LBG is making money again but RBS is defo still up shit creek.

 

Last time the threat was "if you won't share the assets we ain't taking the debt" and I'd say that still holds sway now. Like a lot of things it'd need negotiations after the fact and until May and Sturgeon sit in a room to carve up the kingdom it's all complete speculation. Both sides will set out their rhetoric during a referendum but in reality there will be compromise.

Today's debate on Indy Ref 2 has been suspended due to the tragedies in London.

An oil price crash that was not forseen by anyone is hardly damaging to their credibility. Get a grip. It leaves questions to be answered on the SNPs economic model but not if we can survive on our own. There are plenty of smaller and less well off countries out there that cope just fine.

 

Oil prices are volatile, everyone knows that - except it seems the SNP. Well they do, but they conveniently liked to think that people would just GLOSS OVER that fact and accept their economic plans as-read.

 

There's a different possible economic case that would make independence stack up now - that Edinburgh would be the preferred location for most of the City when the UK loses financial passporting after Brexit.

 

That's very true, I hadn't thought about that - good point!

There's a different possible economic case that would make independence stack up now - that Edinburgh would be the preferred location for most of the City when the UK loses financial passporting after Brexit.

 

I'm just wondering how viable that would be? Most banks are already moving people from the City. By the time the Scottish referendum comes around (likely not until the next general election), most of the adjusting of the City should be done. So there won't be a need to move people/business to Edinburgh as they would've already been moved to France/Germany/Ireland etc by the time Scotland becomes independant and then joins the EU (which could be a year or two after becoming independant, or perhaps even longer).

I'm just wondering how viable that would be? Most banks are already moving people from the City. By the time the Scottish referendum comes around (likely not until the next general election), most of the adjusting of the City should be done. So there won't be a need to move people/business to Edinburgh as they would've already been moved to France/Germany/Ireland etc by the time Scotland becomes independant and then joins the EU (which could be a year or two after becoming independant, or perhaps even longer).

 

As far as I know, whilst plans have been made in the event of a 'worst case scenario' - no job movements have occurred yet until the terms of the deal become clear. It is perfectly viable that with an independent Scotland's aim to immediately re-join EFTA (or remain a member) that they could sell this idea as Tyron says as an alternative (and credible) economic case for IndyRef2.

Edited March 27, 20178 yr by Doctor Blind

Both Edinburgh and Glasgow are strong financial centres currently. Most of RBS is already based at the outskirts of Edinburgh and Lloyds Banking Group is mainly Edinburgh based too.

 

The only thing is the lack of commercial real estate. It's more likely they'll move on paper initially and then bring some staff with them. They may never move fully, but it'll be a while at least until there's sufficient office space. Edinburgh in particular doesn't really have much enthusiasm for skyscrapers, Glasgow isn't rushing to build them either so unless we see a material change in Councils and Developers post-yes to actively capitalise then I don't know how much benefit there will be. (Although the corporation tax benefits are likely to be a healthy boost to government finances, the actual paid people would contribute more to the economy)

 

There's office parks on the M8 corridor and in cities like Stirling, Dundee, Aberdeen and Inverness with potential space along with places like Kirkcaldy, but I'm not sure I can see the appeal in swapping central London for Cumbernauld for staff.

Vote passes 69-59 with Green amendment to ensure franchise is extended to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

 

"Scottish" Secretary David Mundell has already refused to accept the parliaments vote attempting to kick the timing into the 2030s by refusing to consent until after the deal is negotiated, transition arrangements have expired and it's been implemented for a bit

Maybe the SNP can get on with passing some actual legislation now.

Random fact from Radio 4 yesterday - if Scotland goes independent, the UK's average rainfall will drop by eight inches :P

:lol: I'm not even surprised to be honest!

 

I wonder if May knew this if she'd me more supportive. She could legitimately claim to have brought better weather to the UK!!

:lol: I'm not even surprised to be honest!

 

I wonder if May knew this if she'd me more supportive. She could legitimately claim to have brought better weather to the UK!!

Unfortunately, a lot of people would probably fall for it :lol:

Now we know it's definitely coming

 

I must've missed that. :P

 

Nicola Sturgeon is due to make an announcement this afternoon.

This be dead in the water. We all know it. Dumb ass motherf***ers voting Tory killed it and now I'm stuck without a viable option to keep EU citizenship.