Farron has answered those questions. He has said very clearly that he does not think gay sex is a sin. That said, he should have answered them earlier than he did and pointed to his record of support for LGBT+ rights.

 

Indeed, he should have answered decisively earlier that he didn't think it was a sin to stop the whole negative press about this.

Edited June 4, 20178 yr by Dusty Muffin

I think a Tory majority of about 50, helped along a little by Sinn Fein probably gaining a seat (or two).

Indeed, I think that Fermanagh & South Tyrone will swing back to Sinn Fein in this election. I realise that's a mistake on my part, as I'd forgotten that it's held by the UUP rather than the DUP. I think East Belfast will still be held by the DUP, even with a strong Alliance candidate in Naomi Long. Can't see any other seats changing, but I think there'll be a few very tight races, like South Belfast (which I think the SDLP will hold by the skin of their teeth).

 

South Antrim will be very close too.

 

IN NI, I am a fan of Lady Sylvia Hermon, in being the only independent MP in the UK as far as I am aware....she always seems to do very well too.

I can see what you're saying about Scotland, indeed that's where I suspect a lot of the extra Tory seats will come from but I don't see a lot coming from UKIP voters leaving. Most of their second-places are Tory safe seats in the south or Labour safe seats in the north-east where it was easy to get a second place anyway, and anywhere where they've made inroads in marginals, the UKIP voters are surely more likely to disperse into either party. The UKIP loss I think will mostly be a neutral factor.

 

I mean I see your thinking in that regard but in a lot of places UKIP aren't even standing on a pretty explicit pro-Brexit alliance with a Tory Brexiteer candidate in marginals like Wrexham, Ilford and safer places like large swathes of Birmingham, Stoke and West Bromich which is pretty fertile ground for Tory gains.

 

(And hey, if I'm proved wrong about this on Friday morning then I'm not going to be upset about it)

Anyway nationally I think a Tory majority of 21-40 but on the lower end of those figures considering how the polls are narrowing.

I really hope the Greens can take Bristol West (and retain Brighton Pavilion).

 

Expecting a Tory majority but anything less than 80 won't be seen as a huge victory given the early polling predictions. Crazy how weakened Theresa's position has become since pre-election campaign.

Which seat is this? Since March they've had zero MPs.

 

My bad, was looking at the 2015 election results. Forgot about the by-elections since then. UKIP to remain with 0 seats then.

I'm going to predict that Labour will hold the Tories' #1 target seat, based on the canvassing I've been doing.

 

Whether this seat is typical or not of the other battleground seats, I have no idea.

Which is that?

I think a Tory majority of about 50, helped along a little by Sinn Fein probably gaining a seat (or two).

 

What Sinn Fein do will be irrelevant, as they never take up their seats in parliament (plus all NI seats are automatically counted as part of the opposition anyway).

 

I'm going to predict that Labour will hold the Tories' #1 target seat, based on the canvassing I've been doing.

 

Where the former UKIP vote goes will be crucial.

 

Which is that?

 

Chester I would assume, as Labour have a majority of just 93.

 

BTW, here's the link to my 2015 GE spreadsheet, so you can check out the target seats https://www.dropbox.com/s/lbdxpxvc930vpzn/E...02015.xlsx?dl=0

It's interesting that only one person (so far) has predicted anything other than a Tory win.

Chester was 'only' 47% leave, but given the majority for Labour there (and the pulling out of UKIP) it's hard to see it being anything other than a CON GAIN really..

Chester was 'only' 47% leave, but given the majority for Labour there (and the pulling out of UKIP) it's hard to see it being anything other than a CON GAIN really..

 

Not to mention the fact that Labour have had little choice but to accept the referendum result.

There was a story on I think the BBC from Chester and there was a lot of fans of the local MP. Could be a retention with an increased majority quite feasibly

YouGov are currently predicting a Labour hold in Chester.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

What Sinn Fein do will be irrelevant, as they never take up their seats in parliament (plus all NI seats are automatically counted as part of the opposition anyway).

Yes, Northern Irish MPs are counted with the opposition. However, as SF MPs don't take their seats, any SF seat is effectively one off the opposition total.

Yes, Northern Irish MPs are counted with the opposition. However, as SF MPs don't take their seats, any SF seat is effectively one off the opposition total.

 

True, but gov't majorities are always calculated as if SF *did* take their seats in the HoC.

YouGov are currently predicting a Labour hold in Chester.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

 

They do, however, also have Amber Rudd being unseated in Hastings so I have reason to doubt a lot of the substance of that projection.

They do, however, also have Amber Rudd being unseated in Hastings so I have reason to doubt a lot of the substance of that projection.

That would be a magnificent Portillo moment

YouGov are currently predicting a Labour hold in Chester.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

eeeek my constituency is a 'toss up', think it will be Conservative.