Posted April 16, 20187 yr So Ariana is reportedly releasing her lead single THIS FRIDAY! :o :o What are your predictions? Debut #1 Spotify #3 61-80k Hopefully Dua / Drake won’t prevent it from going #1!
April 16, 20187 yr I hope this is big for her - but obviously the song has to be a barnstormer as well! I have faith. Surely destined to be absolutely huge in the UK now.
April 16, 20187 yr At the absolute worst, I think it'll do a 'Look What You Made Me Do' - at best, I could see it being one of the biggest songs of the year and doing 10 weeks at #01 before hitting ACR. Either way, I think #01 is on lock.
April 16, 20187 yr I agree. I can see this era being huge from Ariana, I can see 'One Last Time' re-entering the charts due to BGT and that will only help Ariana's lead single, it wouldn't surprise me if she had a more successful era in the UK in comparison to the US but I do think she will be the highest selling female of 2018.
April 16, 20187 yr Top 5 for both Debut and Spotify and probs 41k-60k I think a top 3 debut officially is pretty safe. However, I'm not sure it'll be a "straight in at #1" unless the song is actually incredible too (i.e. not something like 'Focus' for example - a bop, but pretty much fans only type of bop) I know her profile has been raised incredibly over here, but I have a feeling that could be big things for her album more than single. But we shall see! Fingers crossed for the absolute best though! Edit: but it also wouldn't surprise me if she ends up doing a Shawn Mendes! Gahhh. Although I guess Mendes is in a similar position to how Ariana was with 'Dangerous Woman', so who knows.
April 16, 20187 yr Considering how her profile is, I am in no doubt this will be a runaway #1. I think sales could be upwards of 80k, maybe even 100k. Edited April 16, 20187 yr by Tawdry Hepburn
April 16, 20187 yr I really think people could be over-estimating this. I know her UK profile is is sky high at the moment but I don't think that automatically translates to a surefire #1. Though if the song is good then I'm happy to be proven wrong.
April 17, 20187 yr Considering how her profile is, I am in no doubt this will be a runaway #1. I think sales could be upwards of 80k, maybe even 100k. It took me a while to figure it out what profile and why she's been predicted to do this well :(.
April 17, 20187 yr I said Number 1 with a Top 10 Spotify debut. At a guess sales between 40-60k. If this does look to be a long stayer at Number 1 I’m glad we’ve had a short period of one weekers at the top!
April 17, 20187 yr I don't feel like her profile is THAT high. Sure, she has Manchester, but that was a while ago now, and she wasn't exactly A-list before that. I would say a top 10 debut, perhaps top 5 if she has decent promo lined up, which is iffy because she'll have the US to focus on as well. She'll struggle to overcome both Drake AND Dua/Calvin for the top spot, might do it after a few weeks depending on what the song is like, but I feel very unlikely to take it off the bat unless the song is REALLY on-trend.
April 17, 20187 yr I feel like people are underestimating her if anything! The Manchester “thing” was the biggest event that sadly happened last year and the way she handled it was amazing - since then One Last Time has gone on to be a million seller and people don’t have a bad word to say about her. Hype is going to be massive, sales aren’t high so a #01 is more than realistic.
April 17, 20187 yr Calvin, Drake and Lil Dicky are getting such large numbers on streaming just now I worry that she won't be able to keep up and huge first week sales won't be enough as she'll probabaly stick around the #5 or #6 spot on streaming - Maybe debut at #3 and stick in top 5 for a month I know her name has grown a lot in the last year but Dangerous woman did only debut and peak at #17 in 2016
April 17, 20187 yr I'll still hold reservations until the actual song premieres, I don't think she's *quite* Taylor level in that she'll debut at #1 based on hype alone & not quality (subjective I know!) but I'm confident it'll be a good song as she's definitely the best of all the US gals in the Charts atm.
April 17, 20187 yr I can’t see this doing anything less than #1 first week. I imagine Ari will do well for downloads so will help out with any streaming difference compared to drake & Calvin/dua.
April 17, 20187 yr iTunes #1 first day, with a big lead official #1 first week Spotify #3 first day, #1 peak 50-60k first week sales 3 weeks at #1 max, depends how good the song is though, this is assuming the song is actually good of course. I think something big will come from the Post Malone album which is supposed to be released at the end of the month (and if not there is still the potential for Drake 'Nice For What' to reclaim #1) so the Ariana song won't do anything more than 3 weeks at #1.
April 17, 20187 yr #1 iTunes #2 or #3 chart debut #4 Spotify debut 71k first week sales Edited April 17, 20187 yr by mack25
April 17, 20187 yr The whole Manchester terrorist attack will ensure she is in the media, whether the song is good or not.
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