Electoral Calculus have taken all recent polls from all organisations in to consideration, both national and constituency, and predict this evening that the Tories will get a near 100 seat majority.

Edited November 6, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

Yes, although there is a slight caveat posted with it. Understandably:

 

There are three main factors which could change this prediction: pollster error, campaign swing and tactical voting. The pollsters have got it wrong before, and they can't all be right now because there are big disagreements between them. Some pollsters see Labour doing much better, with ComRes measuring the Conservative lead at just 4pc which would translate into another hung parliament. Conversely, Opinium measured the lead at a chunky 16pc which would give a Conservative landslide. The truth is probably somewhere between those extremes, but it could be nearer one end than the other.

 

The power of campaign swing was also demonstrated in 2017. The initial Conservative lead dwindled as Labour ran a strong campaign and Theresa May led a weak one. Labour are hoping that something similar happens again. That's not guaranteed, since Boris Johnson has a better track record of campaigning, but it can't be ruled out.

 

And finally there is the potential of tactical voting to turn things on its head. Politics has re-aligned and polarised around the Brexit issue, which has overtaken traditional left-right economic questions in voters' priorities. The Conservatives have been fairly successful in unifying Leave supporters by reducing support for the Brexit party. On the other side, Remain supporters are still split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Although the parties are unlikely to co-operate, we may see voters vote tactically to support Remain-leaning candidates against Leavers. This factor could change the result in many marginal seats, and there are far more marginal seats than usual this year.

 

If of course you are very confident about their prediction you can always place a bet Chris.

I think I'll put a couple of quid on. The start of the campaign proper and Labour's lost it's deputy leader.

 

 

The best poll will be the exit poll at 10pm on 12th Dec. Was fairly near last time and in 2015. It correctly predicted the Lib-Dem demise in 2015 and Paddy Ashdown said he'd eat his hat if it was true. We're still waiting.

Edited November 6, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

I see EC predicting that the new Speaker will lose his seat. Could he stay as Speaker if that happened?

I see EC predicting that the new Speaker will lose his seat. Could he stay as Speaker if that happened?

 

He won't be challenged by the major parties.

 

Although it is interesting that Chorley is predicted to go Conservative (or would have been) - last time was 1992. The brilliantly named Den Dover.

New Sky News/YouGov voting intention puts the Tories on 36%, Labour on 25%, Lib Dems on 17%, Brexit Party on 11%, SNP on 11%, Greens on 5% and SNP 4%, with Plaid Cymru on 1%.

 

That adds up to 110% :mellow:

That adds up to 110% :mellow:

And the SNP seem to be on both 11% and 4% :unsure:

And the SNP seem to be on both 11% and 4% :unsure:

 

Here are the actual figures :

 

Sky News/YouGov voting intention puts the Tories on 36%, Labour on 25%, Lib Dems on 17%, Brexit Party on 11%, Greens on 5% and SNP 4%, with Plaid Cymru on 1%.

 

OK, they're still 1% short, but that's better than 10% over... :rolleyes:

 

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election...1-poll-11855764

 

Never noticed that error. Thanks Vid.

Never noticed that error. Thanks Vid.

 

MM would have probably added that spare 10% onto Labour... :heehee:

Here are the actual figures :

 

Sky News/YouGov voting intention puts the Tories on 36%, Labour on 25%, Lib Dems on 17%, Brexit Party on 11%, Greens on 5% and SNP 4%, with Plaid Cymru on 1%.

 

OK, they're still 1% short, but that's better than 10% over... :rolleyes:

 

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election...1-poll-11855764

At least a 1% discrepancy can be attributed to rounding.

And the SNP seem to be on both 11% and 4% :unsure:

Which would be extremely impressive seeing as they’re standing in seats worth 8% of the population 😂😂😂

I think I'll put a couple of quid on. The start of the campaign proper and Labour's lost it's deputy leader.

The best poll will be the exit poll at 10pm on 12th Dec. Was fairly near last time and in 2015. It correctly predicted the Lib-Dem demise in 2015 and Paddy Ashdown said he'd eat his hat if it was true. We're still waiting.

 

You'll be waiting quite some time, he's no longer with us.

Here is an example of how tactical voting could turn this election quite dramatically.

 

@1192187159324844032

 

..and a slight plug for the excellent: https://www.remainunited.org which will have some useful info for those interested in tactical voting on 12th December.

Here is an example of how tactical voting could turn this election quite dramatically.

 

@1192187159324844032

 

..and a slight plug for the excellent: https://www.remainunited.org which will have some useful info for those interested in tactical voting on 12th December.

Seeing John Redwood lose would be immensely satisfying. He is one of several high profile hard-line Leave supporters representing a Remain-voting constituency.

Electoral Calculus have taken all recent polls from all organisations in to consideration, both national and constituency, and predict this evening that the Tories will get a near 100 seat majority.

The bookies disagree. They are leaning towards the Tories as the largest party but with no majority or a very small majority.

I have convinced myself that Johnson is getting a majority, which mostly fills me with dread.

 

Five more years of this.

The bookies disagree. They are leaning towards the Tories as the largest party but with no majority or a very small majority.

 

 

Even a small majority is just fine by me.

The bookies disagree. They are leaning towards the Tories as the largest party but with no majority or a very small majority.

 

Do they have any better record than the pollsters, though?

Do they have any better record than the pollsters, though?

They have more of an interest in getting it right than electoral calculus do.