It's looking bleak.

 

 

A month to go yet. A lot can still happen.

Surely looking at the polls if you were a Conservative you would be slightly worried. I woudl expect them to be slightly higher and I think as the date comes closer it will naturally shift to be more marginal. That said, Labour are making some pretty horrendous choices so far which make me think they either think the campaign is lost or the people in charge are just bloody idiots. I'm more inclined to go with the latter.

The Tories and media are TERRIFIED. The media is protecting Bojo as best as they can. They remember all too well what happened vs Mad May, and those incompetent tory lot are STILL THERR AT THE TOP OF THE PARTY!! The arisrocratic party is vile and useless. That's why they're holding bsck their crap manifesto. It will either be filled with lies, gaffes or both. They're trying to avoid pensioner gate all over again, which was the kiss of death for Mad May. Nothing has changed!! Even the Tory-loving media had a time spinning that line.

That said, Labour are making some pretty horrendous choices so far which make me think they either think the campaign is lost or the people in charge are just bloody idiots. I'm more inclined to go with the latter.

 

 

I'd say both really.

The biggest ? is those who vote "don't know" when polled. The companies generally leave them out of the final result and use an adjustment. Labour tends to be underestimated in polls most of the time IIRC. The TV debates and manifestos will likely dictate which parties the "don't knows" go to. Jemery Corbyn should have an easy time in the debates against Boris, as there should be plenty of ammunition to use against him. I'm quite interested to see what the multi-party debates will be like. I do feel that remain-backing parties need to highlight the potential degradation of workers' rights due to the wording change in the WAB and the opening on the NHS to US pharmaceutical companies and the possible deregulation of the food industry for a trade deal with the US.

Surely looking at the polls if you were a Conservative you would be slightly worried. I woudl expect them to be slightly higher and I think as the date comes closer it will naturally shift to be more marginal. That said, Labour are making some pretty horrendous choices so far which make me think they either think the campaign is lost or the people in charge are just bloody idiots. I'm more inclined to go with the latter.

 

What are the horrendous mistakes?

 

 

None at all. The horrendous campaigning is from the Tories.

What are the horrendous mistakes?

 

I was going to ask the same thing - I don't believe Labour have made any horrendous mistakes. Nothing like the Tories have done so far.

Our latest #GE2019 Westminster voting intention on behalf of the @Telegraph

 

CON 40% (+3)

LAB 30% (+1)

LD 16% (-1)

BRX 7% (-2)

Other 8% (-1)

 

11th - 12th Nov

 

(changes from ComRes/

@britainelects poll, published last night)

 

https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/daily-te...intention-poll/ pic.twitter.com/zNqQ510bOe

 

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1194729148058603521

 

Another 40% and 10 point lead poll for Boris.

I was going to ask the same thing - I don't believe Labour have made any horrendous mistakes. Nothing like the Tories have done so far.

 

Rooney supported Mad May, so he trends Tory :P There are no Labour gaffes so far.

 

I just think it's gonna be like last time, with a bit more tactical voting, with 2 big parties over 40% and Lib Dems taking a few more Tory seats and Tories losing their Scottish seats and DUP losing their seats. Not lookin good for Bojo the Clown!!

Rooney supported Mad May, so he trends Tory :P There are no Labour gaffes so far.

 

I just think it's gonna be like last time, with a bit more tactical voting, with 2 big parties over 40% and Lib Dems taking a few more Tory seats and Tories losing their Scottish seats and DUP losing their seats. Not lookin good for Bojo the Clown!!

 

 

LOL. Tories 10 points ahead and you say it's not looking good for Bjo. Not looking good for Corbyn you mean. :D

Rooney supported Mad May, so he trends Tory :P There are no Labour gaffes so far.

 

I just think it's gonna be like last time, with a bit more tactical voting, with 2 big parties over 40% and Lib Dems taking a few more Tory seats and Tories losing their Scottish seats and DUP losing their seats. Not lookin good for Bojo the Clown!!

 

Oh really? Which would you prefer - 10 points ahead, or 10 points behind... :rolleyes:

Here is the 2017 poll tracker for comparative purposes

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polli...eneral_election

 

Labour were at similar levels to now, 4 weeks before the election, but the Tories were higher, mainly due to less support for the minor parties.

Interesting read...

 

https://news.sky.com/story/commons-people-h...the-uk-11829868

I wouldn't say that just yet. Labour is consistently trending upward, outpacing the rate at which the Cons are making any games. The vote share isn't going to translate perfectly into seats either given tactical voting is going to be very common. The Tory campaign so far has been quite abyssmal - if that continues we'll likely see the other parties start to eat into their lead. We still have manifestos to be published and the TV debates. The debates will be; 19th Nov ITV, 28th Nov Sky News, 29th Nov & 6th Dec BBC. There's also the recent negative reaction to the government's slow response to the flooding in Yorkshire, something that may work against them in the coming weeks.

 

I just assume the worst at all times now after the past few years.

 

@1194920060869062656

 

These figures are absolutely dire.

 

Intrigued to see how the continued conversation around the NHS and how the government has been dealing with the flooding will affect the polls (or not at all).

Edited November 14, 20195 yr by blacksquare

I just assume the worst at all times now after the past few years.

 

@1194920060869062656

 

These figures are absolutely dire.

 

Intrigued to see how the continued conversation around the NHS and how the government has been dealing with the flooding will affect the polls (or not at all).

 

I think the thing is that every other party apart from Labour seems to be trying to turn the election more into a Brexit election, which I guess from the outset that is what it was meant to be with the Brexit party, the remain alliance etc

 

However that doesn't seem to be where the main arguments are laying - the NHS, flooding and general spending seems to be the main arguments at the moment.

 

Whilst The Brexit Party, Lib Dems, Greens and even the Tories with their 'Get Brexit Done' slogan seem to be continually going back to Brexit. But if anything people and the focus isn't on Brexit at all - its on all the other issues that aren't being tackled, or have gone to extreme levels.

 

Which plays more into Labours hands than the other parties

Edited November 14, 20195 yr by ElectroBoy

That's largely what happened at the last election. The Tories wanted an election dominated by the B-word, but a lot of voters wanted to talk about other things. Most of those thigs are subjects that a party that has now been in power for almost a decade would rather not talk about.

 

The Lib Dems always struggle to focus minds on more than one issue. For many years, that was electoral reform; now it's the B-word. In more recent years, they have continued to produce a packed manifesto but have almost given up trying to get more than one of those policies across to the electorate. Labour and the Tories (whether in government or opposition) always get lots of coverage of their policies between elections; the Lib Dems don't so an election campaign is almost their only opportunity.

That's largely what happened at the last election. The Tories wanted an election dominated by the B-word, but a lot of voters wanted to talk about other things. Most of those thigs are subjects that a party that has now been in power for almost a decade would rather not talk about.

 

The Lib Dems always struggle to focus minds on more than one issue. For many years, that was electoral reform; now it's the B-word. In more recent years, they have continued to produce a packed manifesto but have almost given up trying to get more than one of those policies across to the electorate. Labour and the Tories (whether in government or opposition) always get lots of coverage of their policies between elections; the Lib Dems don't so an election campaign is almost their only opportunity.

 

Agreed; The Lib Dems seemed in a very strong position in the run up to the campaigning etc, but I can see them underperforming come the day. In the same way Clegg did a few years ago; during the campaigning it seemed the Lib Dems would break new ground, but it didn't happen.

 

I can see them making some gains; but I can't see them breaking through in the way they hoped

Agreed; The Lib Dems seemed in a very strong position in the run up to the campaigning etc, but I can see them underperforming come the day. In the same way Clegg did a few years ago; during the campaigning it seemed the Lib Dems would break new ground, but it didn't happen.

 

I can see them making some gains; but I can't see them breaking through in the way they hoped

That's one reason why Jo Swinson is so keen to be included in the leaders' debates. While a large chunk of them is bound to be about the B-word, there should also be quite a lot of time spent on other issues. It would be a rare chance to be heard on these other issues.

That's one reason why Jo Swinson is so keen to be included in the leaders' debates. While a large chunk of them is bound to be about the B-word, there should also be quite a lot of time spent on other issues. It would be a rare chance to be heard on these other issues.

 

That's true; when they first started doing the debates The Lib Dems were included (which did help Clegg), but I guess after the coalition the Lib Dems seat numbers seriously reduced.

 

I can't help but feel though if Jo Swinson was included that she'd just turn it into a Brexit debate.

 

I was quite pro Lib Dem and was erring on the side of voting for them tbh, but I'm currently sitting in 'vote labour' camp :D but that is probably because out of the left parties they get the most coverage.